Allegiant Travel Co reports results on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is −$0.50, and the full-year estimate is $5.50, up 44.9% on the prior year. The report will test whether the company's accelerating revenue growth and expanding margins hold through the quarter.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | −$2.09 | −$1.80 |
| Dec '25 | $2.85 | $1.99 |
| Mar '26 | $3.77 | $3.49 |
| Jun '26 | $2.19 | $1.27 |
What analysts expect from Allegiant Travel Co
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is −$0.50, in a range from −$1.06 to −$0.08, and the average revenue estimate is $945.4 million. For the full year, the average EPS estimate is $5.50, up 44.9% on the prior year, based on 14 analysts. That estimate has fallen 27.2% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 11 are positive, 3 are neutral and 0 are negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at $6.00, above the analysts' average estimate of $5.50. For the third quarter of 2026, management set adjusted EPS guidance at −$1.00 to $0.00.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 12.8%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Allegiant Travel Co's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. In the most recent of those, EPS of $2.19 exceeded the estimate of $1.27 by 72.9%.
Profit is outgrowing sales
Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $2.9 billion, up 12.2% on the prior year. The growth rate was up 8.9 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Trailing operating margin was 4.9%, up 16.3 percentage points from a year earlier, while net margin was 0.9%. Net income over the twelve months was $26.0 million, up 83.4% on the prior year.
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $420.3 million, up 9.1% on the prior year. Capital spending of $317.2 million (11.0% of revenue) left free cash flow at $103.1 million, up 47.3% on the prior year. The free-cash-flow margin was 3.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier, though the average diluted share count rose 7.5% over the year.
Against its own history, the 12.2% revenue growth rate is higher than 67% of past quarterly readings (range −52.2% to 124.3%), and the 3.6% free-cash-flow margin is higher than 57% of past readings (range −15.4% to 14.3%). The 4.9% operating margin, however, is higher than only 23% of past readings (range −29.1% to 30.4%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels above.
The value hinges on margins more than growth
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 33.2%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 42.9%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower the value by 17.7%. The growth sensitivity dwarfs the margin sensitivity, making the revenue growth rate the most important variable for the model's output.
