ARM Holdings PLC reports results on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.48, with a revenue estimate of $1.4 billion. The trend the report will test is whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues: twelve-month revenue was $4.9 billion, up 22.8% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.39 | $0.33 |
| Dec '25 | $0.43 | $0.41 |
| Mar '26 | $0.60 | $0.58 |
| Jun '26 | $0.45 | $0.40 |
What analysts expect from ARM Holdings PLC
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.48, in a range from $0.46 to $0.50. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.4 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $2.23, up 26.0% on last year, based on 40 analysts. That estimate has fallen 0.2% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 28 are positive, 13 neutral and 2 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 4.1%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency. This small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
ARM Holdings PLC's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.45 compared with an estimate of $0.40, above it by 11.4%.
Profit is lagging sales
Revenue growth of 22.8% was down 1.2 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 97.5%, yet the trailing operating margin was 18.3%, down 2.4 percentage points from a year earlier. Net income over the twelve months was $904.0 million, up 14.1% on the year before, a slower pace than the revenue growth rate. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $1.5 billion, up 283.9% on the year before. Capital spending was $545.0 million, or 11.1% of revenue, leaving free cash flow of $979.0 million, up 450.0% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 19.9%, up 15.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 0.5% over the year.
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer three questions: whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described in this article.
What ARM Holdings PLC's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 22.0%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 28.1%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 4.6%.
