ARM Holdings PLC is a US-listed company in the semiconductors industry. Its financial year ends in March.
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~$46
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers
Base case. Range ~$43–$80. Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
ARM Holdings PLC valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $4.92bn, up 22.8% on a year earlier, slower than the 23.9% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to 19.9% from 15.7% a year earlier. Operating margin narrowed to 18.3% from 23.4%. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks. Our forward price-to-earnings vs peers value is $46.65 a share, against a share price of $206.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
ARM Holdings PLC's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 22.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 19.9%. Where it stands out: gross margin of 97.5% ranks 1 of 73 semiconductor companies we cover. Where it lags: days sales outstanding of 96 days ranks 54 of 62 semiconductor companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 450.0% while net income grew 14.1%: a 436pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
ARM Holdings PLC reports on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. Analysts expect full-year EPS of $2.23; these are the numbers and trends the report will test.
We value ARM Holdings PLC as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 14%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 2.03 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$28 ~$19–$37 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.14x) |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$46 ~$43–$80 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$6.2 ~$4.5–$8.7 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$6.3 ~$5.8–$7.0 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x) |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: earnings are positive: price-to-earnings is the better measure |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | ~$16 ~$14–$19 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.08x) |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$46 ~$43–$80 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare ARM Holdings PLC with Semiconductors in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $124.99 | $106.79 | $151.28 |
| Market value | $130.5bn | $113.5bn | $161.6bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$1.9bn | −$2.1bn | −$2.8bn |
| Enterprise value | $128.6bn | $111.4bn | $158.8bn |
| Multiples | |||
| Price / sales | 40.4x | 28.3x | 32.8x |
| Price / earnings | n/m | 143.3x | 178.7x |
| Price / free cash flow | 130.8x | n/m | 165.0x |
| EV / EBITDA | n/m | 109.9x | 138.2x |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 4, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $1.4bn and EPS of $0.48 (range $0.46 to $0.50) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $2.23 | +26% | $6.1bn | +23% |
| Next | $3.07 | +38% | $8.3bn | +36% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −0.1% in 90 days, across 40 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −0.2% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised ARM Holdings PLC's forecast and 2 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $2.23 | $3.07 |
| 60 days ago | $2.23 | $3.06 |
| 30 days ago | $2.23 | $3.06 |
| 7 days ago | $2.23 | $3.07 |
| Now | $2.23 | $3.07 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.40 | $0.45 | +11.4% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.58 | $0.60 | +3.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.41 | $0.43 | +5.1% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.33 | $0.39 | +17.7% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return | |||
| ARM | +64% | −11% | +80% |
| Industry peers (median) | −15% | +19% | +13% |
| S&P 500 | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |||
| ARM | 33% | 50% | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |||
| ARM | −43% | −52% | −55% |
| S&P 500 | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since September 14, 2023: 55% from June 18, 2026 to November 2, 2026. Getting back needed a 123% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | $2.7B |
| FY23 Q4 | $2.7B |
| FY24 Q4 | $3.2B |
| FY25 Q4 | $4B |
| FY26 Q4 | $4.9B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | -0.9% |
| FY24 Q4 | 20.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 23.9% |
| FY26 Q4 | 22.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | 23.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | 25.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 3.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 20.7% |
| FY26 Q4 | 18.3% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | 15.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 25.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 30.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 4.4% |
| FY26 Q4 | 19.9% |
Each dollar ARM Holdings took in during FY2026, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $4.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $257M | 5.2% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $121M | 2.5% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $4.8B | 97.5% of revenue |
| Research and development | $2.8B | 56.4% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $1.1B | 22.7% of revenue |
| Operating income | $900M | 18.3% of revenue |
| Income tax | $253M | 5.1% of revenue |
| Net income | $904M | 18.4% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2022 Mar 2022 | 2023 Mar 2023 | 2024 Mar 2024 | 2025 Mar 2025 | 2026 Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||
| Revenue | 2,703 | 2,679 | 3,233 | 4,007 | 4,920 |
| Gross profit | 2,572 | 2,573 | 3,079 | 3,886 | 4,799 |
| EBITDA | 818 | 841 | 273 | 1,014 | 1,149 |
| Operating income | 633 | 671 | 111 | 831 | 900 |
| Net income | 549 | 524 | 306 | 792 | 904 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.54 | $0.51 | $0.29 | $0.75 | $0.85 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||
| Revenue | — | −0.9% | +20.7% | +23.9% | +22.8% |
| EBITDA | — | +2.8% | −67.5% | +271.4% | +13.3% |
| Operating income | — | +6.0% | −83.5% | +648.6% | +8.3% |
| Net income | — | −4.6% | −41.6% | +158.8% | +14.1% |
| Diluted EPS | — | −5.6% | −43.1% | +158.6% | +13.3% |
| Margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 95.2% | 96.0% | 95.2% | 97.0% | 97.5% |
| EBITDA margin | 30.3% | 31.4% | 8.4% | 25.3% | 23.4% |
| Operating margin | 23.4% | 25.0% | 3.4% | 20.7% | 18.3% |
| Net margin | 20.3% | 19.6% | 9.5% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 15.7% | 25.2% | 30.9% | 4.4% | 19.9% |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Cash from operations | 458 | 739 | 1,090 | 397 | 1,524 |
| Capital spending | 34 | 64 | 92 | 219 | 545 |
| Free cash flow | 424 | 675 | 998 | 178 | 979 |
| Stock-based pay | 26 | 79 | 1,037 | 820 | 1,052 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 398 | 596 | −39 | −642 | −73 |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash | 1,004 | 1,554 | 1,923 | 2,085 | 2,751 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −1,004 | −1,554 | −1,923 | −2,085 | −2,751 |
| Diluted shares | 1,025m | 1,028m | 1,044m | 1,063m | 1,068m |
| Last 12 months unless stated | ARM | FSLR | MCHP | CSIQ | SWKS | NXT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.9bn | $5.0bn | $5.1bn | $5.6bn | $4.0bn | $3.8bn | $1.1bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 22.8% | −0.7% | 20.9% | −6.6% | 0.1% | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 16.6% | −16.4% | 50.1% | −6.8% | 22.5% | 3.9% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | −22.8% | 38.0% | — | −3.1% | 22.5% | 20.1% |
| Gross margin | 97.5% | 49.3% | 60.2% | 18.3% | 40.7% | 33.0% | 48.3% |
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 37.7% | 15.5% | 0.8% | 7.6% | 19.0% | 4.8% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 34.1% | 15.6% | 4.1% | 12.6% | 21.9% | 4.8% |
| Net margin | 18.4% | 37.1% | 9.3% | −1.9% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 5.3% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 31.0% | 16.7% | 23.4% | −4.5% | 17.8% | 15.0% | 17.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 19.9% | 4.6% | 21.7% | −21.7% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 9.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 0.5% | 23.2% | −9.4% | 26.2% | 15.5% | 8.5% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 21.4% | 0.5% | 5.4% | 0.4% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 5.8% |
| Change in share count | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | −4.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 22.8% | 13.7% | 25 of 75 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -1.2pp | +3.7pp | 50 of 75 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 97.5% | 48.3% | 1 of 73 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 18.3% | 4.8% | 20 of 75 |
| Net margin Profitability | 18.4% | 5.3% | 19 of 75 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 19.9% | 9.6% | 20 of 75 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 21.4% | 6.4% | 61 of 74 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.5% | 0.9% | 28 of 72 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 96 days | 58 days | 54 of 62 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco Ltd. | $4.5B | 12.8M | 13.1% | ▲ 117.9% |
| DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt Am Main | $2.3B | 6.5M | 6.6% | ▼ 30.6% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.5B | 4.3M | 4.4% | New |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $1.5B | 4.1M | 4.2% | ▲ 333.2% |
| FMR LLC | $1.4B | 4.1M | 4.1% | ▲ 65.9% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $1B | 2.9M | 3.0% | ▲ 79.3% |
| Van Eck Associates Corp | $922M | 2.6M | 2.6% | ▲ 17.5% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $851M | 2.4M | 2.4% | ▼ 43.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $765M | 2.2M | 2.2% | ▼ 51.6% |
| Capital International Investors | $727M | 2.1M | 2.1% | ▲ 75.9% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $722M | 2.0M | 2.1% | ▲ 63.8% |
| Franklin Resources Inc | $718M | 2.0M | 2.1% | ▲ 30.5% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not ARM Holdings PLC's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 2 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Child Jason Chief Financial Officer | September 21, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 10,400 | $300.00 | $3.1M |
| Child Jason Chief Financial Officer | August 27, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 10,400 | $255.33 | $2.7M |
| Bartels Laura Kathleen Chief Accounting Officer | June 2, 2026 | Sell | 11,306 | $392.70 | $4.4M |
| Abbey William Chief Commercial Officer | June 1, 2026 | Sell | 2,644 | $383.73 | $1M |
| Abbey William Chief Commercial Officer | June 1, 2026 | Sell | 3,922 | $415.52 | $1.6M |
| Abbey William Chief Commercial Officer | May 28, 2026 | Sell | 4,200 | $343.81 | $1.4M |
| Abbey William Chief Commercial Officer | May 22, 2026 | Sell | 2,300 | $305.82 | $703,386 |
| Eaton Charlotte Claire Chief People Officer | May 21, 2026 | Sell | 4,000 | $282.77 | $1.1M |
| Eaton Charlotte Claire Chief People Officer | May 21, 2026 | Sell | 2,805 | $288.10 | $808,121 |
| Eaton Charlotte Claire Chief People Officer | May 21, 2026 | Sell | 5,000 | $291.08 | $1.5M |
| Abbey William Chief Commercial Officer | May 21, 2026 | Sell | 4,655 | $287.03 | $1.3M |
| Eaton Charlotte Claire Chief People Officer | May 20, 2026 | Sell | 3,100 | $252.25 | $781,975 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 1 member of Congress disclosed 0 purchases and 1 sale of ARM Holdings PLC shares.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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