Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. reports results on Wednesday 28 October, after the market closes. Growth is coming with wider margins, so profit is rising faster than sales. Revenue over the twelve months to Q1 2027 was $2.3 billion, which rose 17.6% on the year before.
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $1.63, in a range from $1.58 to $1.65. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $580.5 million. At the same time, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $8.98, which would be up 22.1% on last year (based on 15 analysts). That estimate has risen 5.2% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 16 are positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set the fiscal year ending March 27, 2027 Net income per diluted share guidance at $8.80 to $9.23. In its latest earnings release, management set the second fiscal quarter ending September 26, 2026 Net income per diluted share guidance at $1.55 to $1.65. Alongside that, in its latest earnings release, management set the fiscal year ending March 27, 2027 Total sales guidance at $2.6 billion to $2.6 billion. In its latest earnings release, management set the second fiscal quarter ending September 26, 2026 Total sales guidance at $572.0 million to $582.0 million.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 2.2%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.91 compared with an estimate of $1.70, above it by 12.1%.
The trends going in
Reported cash is holding up better than reported profit. That growth rate was down 0.3 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 38.5%. The trailing operating margin was 13.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 10.4%. Net income over the twelve months was $242.6 million, which rose 24.1% on the year before.
Cash flow
Cash generation improved. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $314.9 million, up 74.9% on the year before. Capital spending was $198.2 million, or 8.5% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $116.7 million, up 326.1% on the year before. Free cash flow was 5.0% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 3.6 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 0.2% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 5.0% is higher than 67% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −7.3% to 14.3%. Today’s operating margin of 13.6% is higher than 79% of past readings (5.3% to 17.4%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 17.6% is higher than 69% of past readings (−3.1% to 66.6%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for value
For valuation, the figures matter through our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 23.3%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 29.9%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 19.5%.
