Bumble reports on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. Analysts expect quarterly EPS of $0.22 and revenue of $209.9 million. The report will test whether the 13.3% decline in revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 continues.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.29 | $0.54 |
| Dec '25 | $1.10 | $0.21 |
| Mar '26 | $0.31 | $0.26 |
| Jun '26 | $0.48 | $0.23 |
What analysts expect from Bumble
The analysts' average estimate for quarterly EPS is $0.22, in a range from $0.22 to $0.22. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $209.9 million. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $0.35, which would be down 89.0% on last year, based on 7 analysts. That estimate has fallen 63.2% over the past 90 days. All ten analysts' recommendations are neutral; none are positive and none are negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set Third Quarter 2026 Total Revenue guidance at $205.0 million to $213.0 million. The analysts' average revenue estimate of $209.9 million sits within that range.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 32.7%. The model's estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency. This small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Bumble's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.48 compared with an estimate of $0.23, above it by 111.5%.
Cash is holding up better than reported profit
Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $893.2 million, down 13.3% on the year before. That growth rate was down 1.9 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 72.8%. The trailing operating margin was negative, at −62.6%, up 43.7 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was negative, at −58.0%. The company made a net loss of $517.7 million over the twelve months.
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $266.7 million, up 31.7% on the year before. Capital spending was $17.9 million, or 2.0% of revenue. Free cash flow was $248.8 million, up 65.9% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 27.9%, up 13.3 percentage points from a year earlier.
The free-cash-flow margin of 27.9% is higher than 95% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −7.0% to 28.3%. The twelve-month revenue growth rate of −13.3% is below every past reading, which have ranged from −11.4% to 27.1%. The operating margin of −62.6% sits higher than 29% of past readings, which have ranged from −106.2% to 11.4%. Cash generation is at a historic high while revenue growth is at a historic low.
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels reported here.
What Bumble's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 28.0%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 36.9%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower the value by 4.0%.
