Chefs’ Warehouse, Inc. reports results on Wednesday 28 October, before the market opens. Growth is speeding up, with revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 reaching $4.4 billion, a rise of 11.2% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.50 | $0.42 |
| Dec '25 | $0.68 | $0.62 |
| Mar '26 | $0.40 | $0.25 |
| Jun '26 | $0.78 | $0.59 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the average EPS estimate stands at $0.59, in a range from $0.52 to $0.61, while the average revenue estimate is $1.1 billion. The full-year picture shows an average EPS estimate of $2.55, which would be up 34.1% on last year (based on 8 analysts). That estimate has risen 12.0% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 7 are positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set fiscal 2026 full year Net sales guidance at $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 13.1%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.78 compared with an estimate of $0.59, above it by 32.3%.
The trends going in
Reported profit is running well ahead of the cash, with that growth rate up 1.2 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 24.5%, while the trailing operating margin was 4.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin stood at 2.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $92.0 million, which rose 32.2% on the year before.
The cash picture
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $161.8 million, up 3.1% on the year before. Capital spending was $36.0 million, or 0.8% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $125.8 million, up 6.4% on the year before. This represented a free-cash-flow margin of 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 3.9% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results, today’s free-cash-flow margin of 2.9% is higher than 80% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −3.9% to 5.3%. Today’s operating margin of 4.0% is higher than 75% of past readings (−10.4% to 7.2%). Additionally, today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 11.2% is higher than 37% of past readings (−36.9% to 94.6%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues remains a key question. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above is another. Alongside that, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above requires attention. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for our valuation
These trends feed directly into what the shares are worth in our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 28.4%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 36.7%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 32.2%.
