Corecivic, Inc. reports results on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $2.5 billion, up 24.3% on the year before. The report will test whether that growth acceleration can continue while free cash flow keeps falling.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.24 | $0.26 |
| Dec '25 | $0.27 | $0.21 |
| Mar '26 | $0.40 | $0.29 |
| Jun '26 | $0.38 | $0.34 |
What analysts expect from Corecivic
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.43, in a range from $0.41 to $0.47. Revenue for the quarter is estimated at $700.5 million. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $1.68, which would be up 52.9% on last year, based on 5 analysts. That estimate has risen 5.0% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 4 are positive, 0 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set full-year 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS guidance at $1.62 to $1.70 and Diluted EPS guidance at $15.00 to $15.20. These are company estimates, not reported results.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 10.6%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency. This small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Corecivic's record against estimates
Corecivic reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.38 compared with an estimate of $0.34, above it by 11.8%.
The revenue growth rate of 24.3% is above every past reading in the company's own record, which ran from −6.0% to 19.9%
Revenue growth is accelerating. The growth rate was up 4.5 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier, and the trailing net margin stood at 5.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $127.9 million, up 22.9% on the year before.
Cash is not keeping pace. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $200.2 million, down 26.4% on the year before. Capital spending was $141.2 million, or 5.7% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $59.0 million, down 65.6% on the year before. That left a free-cash-flow margin of 2.4% of revenue, down 6.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 7.1% over the year, which narrows the per-share effect of the cash decline.
Against its own history, today's twelve-month revenue growth of 24.3% is above every past reading, which have ranged from −6.0% to 19.9%. The free-cash-flow margin of 2.4% is higher than only 12% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −10.2% to 19.0%.
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described here.
The value hinges on margins more than growth
Our model's value is sensitive to growth. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 31.1%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 39.7%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 27.5%.
