MSA Safety Inc reports results on Monday 2 November, after the market closes. Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $1.9 billion, up 6.5% on the year before. The report will test whether that growth pick-up continues.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $1.94 | $1.87 |
| Dec '25 | $2.38 | $2.26 |
| Mar '26 | $1.99 | $1.83 |
| Jun '26 | $2.40 | $2.14 |
What analysts expect from MSA Safety
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $2.09, in a range from $1.96 to $2.16. The average revenue estimate is $528.4 million. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $9.07, up 14.4% on last year, based on 6 analysts. That estimate has risen 2.1% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 2 are positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 3.6%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
MSA Safety's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $2.40 compared with an estimate of $2.14, above it by 12.4%.
Profit is outgrowing sales
Revenue growth is accelerating: the trailing-twelve-month rate of 6.5% is up 0.9 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Margins are expanding alongside it. The trailing gross margin is 47.6%; the trailing operating margin is 21.2%, up 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier; the trailing net margin is 16.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $314.0 million, up 13.4% on the year before.
Cash conversion is outpacing the profit growth. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $405.9 million, up 26.3% on the year before. Capital spending was $51.6 million, or 2.7% of revenue, so free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, reached $354.3 million, up 40.3% on the year before. That puts the free-cash-flow margin at 18.2% of revenue, up 4.4 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 1.1% over the year.
Against the company's own history, today's free-cash-flow margin of 18.2% is higher than 92% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −12.3% to 23.7%. Today's operating margin of 21.2% is higher than 95% of past readings, which range from 1.5% to 21.5%. The revenue growth rate of 6.5% is higher than 66% of past readings, which range from −7.2% to 24.0%.
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described here.
What MSA Safety's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 26.6%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 34.7%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 5.5%.
