Papa Johns International reports on Thursday 5 November, before the market opens. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.15. The report will test whether the company's revenue, already down 5.6% over the trailing twelve months, continues to shrink or stabilises.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.32 | $0.41 |
| Dec '25 | $0.34 | $0.33 |
| Mar '26 | $0.32 | $0.37 |
| Jun '26 | $0.46 | $0.45 |
What analysts expect from Papa Johns International
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.15, in a range from $0.06 to $0.32. The average revenue estimate is $458.7 million. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $1.16, down 19.0% on last year, based on 8 analysts. Of the analysts' recommendations, 2 are positive, 10 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land below the analysts' average estimate by 2.8%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 50.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Papa Johns International's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 2 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.46 compared with an estimate of $0.45, above it by 2.2%.
The decline in sales is deepening
Revenue is contracting and decelerating. The trailing-twelve-month revenue growth rate is −5.6%, down 3.2 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing operating margin was 4.3%, down 2.6 percentage points from a year earlier, and the trailing net margin was 1.4%. Net income over the twelve months was $27.6 million, down 63.4% on the year before, a steeper drop than the revenue decline, reflecting the margin compression above.
Cash flow is following the same path. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $95.0 million, down 27.8% on the year before. Capital spending was $60.7 million, or 3.1% of revenue, leaving free cash flow of $34.2 million, down 40.8% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 1.7%, down 1.0 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 0.5% over the year.
Against its own history, today's free-cash-flow margin of 1.7% is higher than only 9% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −0.4% to 9.4%. Today's operating margin of 4.3% is higher than 13% of past readings (−0.1% to 9.6%). Today's twelve-month revenue growth rate of −5.6% is higher than 6% of past readings (−11.2% to 17.4%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described here.
