United Parcel Service reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $89.9 billion, which fell 0.4% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $1.74 | $1.30 |
| Dec '25 | $2.38 | $2.20 |
| Mar '26 | $1.07 | $1.02 |
| Jun '26 | $1.76 | $1.66 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $1.62, in a range from $1.57 to $1.68. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $22.3 billion. Alongside that, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $7.20, which would be up 0.6% on last year (based on 26 analysts). That estimate has risen 1.0% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 14 are positive, 12 neutral and 3 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set Full-year Non-GAAP Adj. Diluted EPS Guidance guidance at $7.22. In its latest earnings release, management set Full-year 2026 Consolidated Revenue Outlook guidance at $91.2 billion.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 3.5%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.76 compared with an estimate of $1.66, above it by 5.8%.
The trends going in
The trailing operating margin was 7.3%, down 2.0 percentage points from a year earlier. Alongside that, the trailing net margin was 5.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $4.6 billion, which fell 20.2% on the year before.
The cash picture
More cash came in than a year earlier. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $8.9 billion, up 18.6% on the year before. Capital spending was $3.4 billion, or 3.8% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $5.5 billion, up 54.2% on the year before. Free cash flow was 6.1% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 2.1 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 0.1% over the year.
In context
Measured against its own history: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 6.1% is higher than 38% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −5.6% to 11.3%. Today’s operating margin of 7.3% is higher than 6% of past readings (2.4% to 13.6%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of −0.4% is higher than 15% of past readings (−9.3% to 19.5%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Meanwhile, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 33.0%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 43.4%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 18.6%.
