Warner Music Group reports on Thursday 19 November, before the market opens. The company's twelve-month revenue reached $7.3 billion, up 12.9% on the year before, and the report will test whether that acceleration in growth holds.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.51 | $0.33 |
| Dec '25 | $0.43 | $0.40 |
| Mar '26 | $0.43 | $0.29 |
| Jun '26 | $0.51 | $0.39 |
What analysts expect from Warner Music Group
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $0.42, in a range from $0.36 to $0.47. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.9 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $1.78, which would be up 45.7% on last year, based on 17 analysts. That estimate has fallen 3.4% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 14 are positive, 3 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 19.5%. The model's estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Warner Music Group's record against estimates
Warner Music reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.51 compared with an estimate of $0.39, above it by 31.2%.
Profit is outgrowing sales
Revenue growth is accelerating. The trailing growth rate of 12.9% is up 0.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier, and it sits higher than 86% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −2.0% to 22.9%.
The trailing operating margin is 13.7%, up 3.0 percentage points from a year earlier, and higher than 96% of past readings (−6.5% to 14.0%). The trailing gross margin is 45.8% and the trailing net margin is 9.2%. Net income over the twelve months was $672.0 million, up 126.3% on the year before.
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $939.0 million, up 25.0% on the year before. Capital spending was $103.0 million, or 1.4% of revenue, leaving free cash flow of $836.0 million, up 37.7% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin of 11.4% is up 2.1 percentage points from a year earlier and higher than 89% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −0.1% to 13.7%.
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels reported.
The value hinges on margins more than growth
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 28.5%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 36.8%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 8.7%.
