Cellebrite DI Ltd. is a US-listed company in the application software industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$21
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$17–$28 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (14.6%–24.6% a year).
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 76% above it.
Price used: $12.13, November 2, 2026
Cellebrite DI Ltd. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $476m, up 18.6% on a year earlier, slower than the 23.4% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to 33.7% from 12.6% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 14.0% from 5.6%. The diluted share count is up 19.3% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $21.24 a share.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Cellebrite DI Ltd.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 18.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 33.7%. Where it stands out: free-cash-flow margin of 33.7% ranks 20 of 180 application software companies we cover. Where it lags: change in share count of 19.3% ranks 137 of 163 application software companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$21 per share in the base case (~$17–$28 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Net margin expanding: TTM net margin reached 16.5%, up 87.0pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The share price implies about 8.3% a year of cash-flow growth for five years.That is slower than the 19.5% a year revenue growth Cellebrite DI has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($11.96, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Cellebrite DI Ltd.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $113M, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Cellebrite DI Ltd. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.01 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$21 ~$17–$28 | Primary model, counts double |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$9.0 ~$7.5–$15 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$17 ~$9.0–$21 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Cellebrite DI Ltd. with Application Software in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $8 | $10 | $13 | $17 | $23 | $30 |
| 8.5% | $6 | $8 | $10 | $13 | $17 | $22 |
| 10% | $5 | $7 | $8 | $11 | $13 | $17 |
| At fiscal year end | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $10.53 | $8.02 | $4.36 | $8.66 | $22.03 | $18.03 |
| Market value | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $852m | $1.6bn | $4.6bn | $4.5bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$134m | −$146m | −$88m | −$190m | −$192m | −$124m |
| Enterprise value | $1.2bn | $1.1bn | $764m | $1.5bn | $4.4bn | $4.4bn |
| Multiples | ||||||
| Price / sales | 6.7x | 5.3x | 3.1x | 5.1x | 11.5x | 9.5x |
| Price / earnings | n/m | 18.1x | 7.1x | — | — | 57.5x |
| Price / free cash flow | 21.6x | 41.9x | 62.3x | 17.0x | 37.3x | 28.1x |
| EV / EBITDA | 77.4x | 55.2x | 74.7x | 33.7x | 65.5x | 55.9x |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: High.
Next results: November 12, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $146m and EPS of $0.16 (range $0.14 to $0.17) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.55 | +8% | $557m | +17% |
| Next | $0.65 | +19% | $641m | +15% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −1.2% in 90 days, across 8 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −1.1% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 3 analysts raised Cellebrite DI Ltd.'s forecast and 4 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.55 | $0.66 |
| 60 days ago | $0.55 | $0.64 |
| 30 days ago | $0.55 | $0.65 |
| 7 days ago | $0.55 | $0.65 |
| Now | $0.55 | $0.65 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.11 | $0.11 | −2.5% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.10 | $0.12 | +24.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.14 | $0.14 | +0.5% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.13 | $0.14 | +8.5% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| CLBT | −24% | −46% | +99% | +154% | −18% | −33% |
| Industry peers (median) | −7% | −50% | +19% | +2% | −21% | −14% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| CLBT | 58% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 36% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| CLBT | −36% | −52% | −21% | −16% | −48% | −44% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 6, 2020: 68% from September 16, 2021 to September 30, 2022. Getting back needed a 210% gain, reached on March 1, 2024, 518 days after the low.
How Cellebrite DI Ltd.’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Option prices imply less movement than the shares have recently shown. Selling options pays little for the risk taken.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Not offered: fundamentals grade C+ (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | $171.9M |
| FY20 Q4 | $194.9M |
| FY21 Q4 | $246.2M |
| FY22 Q4 | $270.7M |
| FY23 Q4 | $325.1M |
| FY24 Q4 | $401.2M |
| FY25 Q4 | $475.7M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 13.4% |
| FY21 Q4 | 26.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | 9.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 20.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | 23.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 18.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | -0.9% |
| FY20 Q4 | 4.7% |
| FY21 Q4 | 5.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | 0.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | 10.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 14.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 14.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | 5.8% |
| FY20 Q4 | 31.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 12.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | 5.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 29.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 30.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 33.7% |
Each dollar Cellebrite DI took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $476M | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $24.2M | 5.1% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $75.2M | 15.8% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $401M | 84.2% of revenue |
| Research and development | $114M | 23.9% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $220M | 46.3% of revenue |
| Operating income | $66.5M | 14.0% of revenue |
| Income tax | $12.4M | 2.6% of revenue |
| Net income | $78.3M | 16.5% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||
| Revenue | 172 | 195 | 246 | 271 | 325 | 401 | 476 |
| Gross profit | 136 | 157 | 204 | 220 | 272 | 339 | 401 |
| EBITDA | 3 | 15 | 21 | 10 | 43 | 68 | 78 |
| Operating income | −2 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 33 | 57 | 66 |
| Net income | −2 | 6 | 71 | 121 | −81 | −283 | 78 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.08 | −$0.08 | $0.44 | $0.59 | −$0.43 | −$1.35 | $0.31 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||
| Revenue | — | +13.4% | +26.3% | +9.9% | +20.1% | +23.4% | +18.6% |
| EBITDA | — | — | +38.0% | −50.8% | +322.4% | +56.1% | +16.0% |
| Operating income | — | — | +49.9% | −92.4% | — | +71.2% | +16.8% |
| Net income | — | — | +>999% | +69.2% | −167.1% | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | +34.1% | −172.9% | — | — |
| Margins | |||||||
| Gross margin | 79.2% | 80.6% | 82.7% | 81.3% | 83.6% | 84.4% | 84.2% |
| EBITDA margin | 1.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 13.3% | 16.8% | 16.5% |
| Operating margin | −0.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 0.4% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 14.0% |
| Net margin | −1.1% | 3.0% | 29.0% | 44.6% | −24.9% | −70.5% | 16.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.8% | 31.0% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 29.8% | 30.8% | 33.7% |
| Cash flow | |||||||
| Cash from operations | 16 | 67 | 36 | 21 | 102 | 132 | 174 |
| Capital spending | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 13 |
| Free cash flow | 10 | 60 | 31 | 14 | 97 | 124 | 160 |
| Stock-based pay | 13 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 31 | 45 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −3 | 53 | 24 | −0 | 78 | 93 | 115 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| Cash | 82 | 134 | 146 | 88 | 190 | 192 | 124 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −82 | −134 | −146 | −88 | −190 | −192 | −124 |
| Diluted shares | 122m | 124m | 162m | 195m | 190m | 209m | 250m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||
| Dividends | 25 | 10 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Buybacks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Total returned | 26 | 10 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | CLBT | ADEA | SPT | AVPT | PD | MSTR | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $476m | $471m | $482m | $466m | $495m | $495m | $482m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 18.6% | 24.3% | 11.8% | 25.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 12.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 6.2% | 18.5% | 23.0% | 6.8% | −0.6% | 11.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 12.1% | 10.8% | 22.0% | 0.8% | −2.5% | 11.9% |
| Gross margin | 84.2% | — | 77.4% | 73.4% | 84.8% | 67.8% | 69.2% |
| Operating margin | 14.0% | 41.6% | −5.9% | 9.8% | 6.5% | <−999% | 1.1% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 34.7% | −12.6% | 4.8% | −6.7% | −593.7% | −0.8% |
| Net margin | 16.5% | 26.1% | −6.1% | 15.3% | 37.2% | <−999% | 2.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 36.5% | 40.6% | 11.2% | 22.5% | 26.6% | −1.5% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 33.7% | 40.0% | 10.5% | 21.7% | 25.6% | −2.2% | 15.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 44.8% | 6.2% | 19.7% | 24.0% | −8.4% | 16.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 9.4% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| Change in share count | 19.3% | 0.5% | 3.2% | 10.4% | −6.1% | 22.3% | 2.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 18.6% | 12.0% | 62 of 184 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -4.8pp | +0.2pp | 153 of 184 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 84.2% | 69.8% | 20 of 160 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 14.0% | 1.1% | 42 of 181 |
| Net margin Profitability | 16.5% | 2.1% | 40 of 185 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 33.7% | 15.2% | 20 of 180 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 9.4% | 9.3% | 93 of 177 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 19.3% | 1.7% | 137 of 163 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 81 days | 57 days | 118 of 162 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| True Wind Capital Management, L.P. | $202M | 13.9M | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Voss Capital, LP | $167M | 11.4M | 9.1% | ▲ 18.3% |
| Pertento Partners LLP | $117M | 8.0M | 6.4% | ▲ 20.1% |
| Phoenix Financial Ltd. | $90.2M | 6.2M | 4.9% | ▲ 47.8% |
| FMR LLC | $87.2M | 6.0M | 4.8% | ▼ 29.7% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $83M | 5.7M | 4.5% | ▲ 70.2% |
| Nine Ten Capital Management LLC | $60.3M | 4.1M | 3.3% | ▲ 19.8% |
| Artisan Partners Limited Partnership | $47.7M | 3.3M | 2.6% | ▲ 49.5% |
| Wellington Management Group LLP | $44.5M | 3.0M | 2.4% | ▲ 93.7% |
| Clal Insurance Enterprises Holdings Ltd | $40.5M | 2.8M | 2.2% | ▼ 12.6% |
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $34.8M | 2.4M | 1.9% | ▼ 28.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $32M | 2.2M | 1.7% | ▲ 5.4% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Cellebrite DI Ltd.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barter David Chief Financial Officer | October 16, 2026 | Sell | 12,134 | $11.21 | $136,069 |
| Hogan Thomas E. 10% owner | August 25, 2026 | Sell | 25,299 | $11.29 | $285,626 |
| Gee David Nicholas Chief Marketing Officer | August 24, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 4,323 | $11.36 | $49,109 |
| Gee David Nicholas Chief Marketing Officer | August 21, 2026 | Sell | 2,198 | $11.24 | $24,706 |
| Jewell Marcus Global Chief Revenue Officer | August 21, 2026 | Sell | 12,562 | $11.24 | $141,197 |
| Gee David Nicholas Chief Marketing Officer | August 12, 2026 | Sell | 230 | $16.07 | $3,696 |
| Jewell Marcus Global Chief Revenue Officer | August 12, 2026 | Sell | 411 | $16.07 | $6,605 |
| Hogan Thomas E. Chief Executive Officer | August 12, 2026 | Sell | 139,713 | $15.39 | $2.2M |
| Barter David Chief Financial Officer | July 8, 2026 | Sell | 41,734 | $16.38 | $683,603 |
| Hogan Thomas E. Chief Executive Officer | July 2, 2026 | Sell | 103,188 | $15.76 | $1.6M |
| Gee David Nicholas Chief Marketing Officer | May 21, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 3,430 | $13.15 | $45,104 |
| Gee David Nicholas Chief Marketing Officer | May 21, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,243 | $13.10 | $29,383 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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