CMS Energy: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 8.6% a year; our model expects 6.3%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for CMS Energy: held for review: after-tax interest is 61% of the cash flow left for shareholders; our flat discount rate doesn't yet reflect debt this heavy. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 8.6% a year; our model expects 6.3%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position390 long, 39 short, since March 31, 2012

Beat the S&P 50021 of 3953.8% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−29.2%cumulative; worst fall -47.2%

$10,000 became$29,160S&P 500 bought and held: $47,806

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into CMS in long quarters and adds a short of CMS in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 39 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 21, by −0.4% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	39	53.8%	−0.4%	+1.3%	−3.5%	-0.29	No reliable evidence
All positions	39	53.8%	−0.4%	+1.3%	−3.5%	-0.29	No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (46)

From	Price paid	Growth the price implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	CMS	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$63.08	8.6%	6.3%	No position	+12.3%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$76.50	9.8%	7.3%	No position	−16.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$77.58	8.7%	6.7%	No position	−0.6%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$69.93	8.8%	5.4%	No position	+11.8%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$73.26	12.8%	4.0%	No position	−3.8%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$69.28	20.9%	3.1%	Short	+6.5%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$75.11	24.0%	2.0%	Short	−7.1%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$66.65	23.2%	2.0%	Short	+13.6%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$70.63	24.7%	2.0%	Short	−4.9%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$59.53	46.0%	4.0%	Short	+19.6%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$60.34	44.9%	4.0%	Short	−0.5%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$58.07	54.8%	2.0%	Short	+4.9%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$53.11	50.0%	4.4%	Short	+10.3%	+11.6%
March 31, 2020	$58.75	50.5%	2.0%	Short	+0.2%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$62.84	46.2%	2.0%	Short	−5.9%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$63.95	42.2%	3.3%	Short	−1.1%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$57.91	41.7%	4.2%	Short	+11.2%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$55.54	38.6%	3.3%	Short	+5.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$49.65	34.0%	3.2%	Short	+12.7%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$49.00	27.5%	2.1%	Short	+2.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$47.28	28.9%	2.0%	Short	+4.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$45.29	26.7%	2.0%	Short	+5.2%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$47.30	27.3%	2.0%	Short	−3.4%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$46.32	27.4%	2.0%	Short	+2.8%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$46.25	30.3%	2.0%	Short	+0.9%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$44.74	30.4%	2.0%	Short	+4.1%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$41.62	31.3%	2.0%	Short	+8.3%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$42.01	32.2%	2.0%	Short	−0.2%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$45.86	33.1%	2.0%	Short	−7.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$42.44	26.9%	4.0%	Short	+8.9%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$36.08	21.1%	2.0%	Short	+18.6%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$35.32	21.1%	2.0%	Short	+3.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$31.84	22.4%	2.0%	Short	+11.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$34.91	23.5%	6.3%	Short	−8.0%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$34.75	31.5%	6.5%	Short	+1.2%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$29.66	23.8%	6.2%	Short	+18.1%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$31.15	19.9%	6.3%	Short	−3.9%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$29.28	15.0%	2.9%	Short	+7.3%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$26.77	16.2%	2.8%	Short	+10.5%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$26.32	15.1%	4.3%	Short	+2.6%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$27.17	14.0%	3.5%	Short	−2.3%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$27.94	15.1%	2.0%	Short	−1.9%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$24.38	12.5%	2.0%	Short	+15.7%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$23.55	12.4%	2.0%	Short	+4.6%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$23.50	8.8%	2.0%	No position	+1.2%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$22.00	6.6%	2.0%	No position	+7.9%	−2.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of 4.2% a year; our model expects 6.3%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position00 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2012

Beat the S&P 500—no position yet

Strategy against the index0.0%cumulative; worst fall 0.0%

$10,000 became$69,585S&P 500 bought and held: $69,585

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: The gap has not been wide enough for a position in CMS Energy since 2010, so there is no record to judge.

Positions	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	—	—	—	—	—	—

Every quarter (59)

From	Price paid	Growth the P/E implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	CMS	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$63.08	4.2%	6.3%	No position	+12.3%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$76.50	6.2%	7.3%	No position	−16.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$77.58	6.6%	6.7%	No position	−0.6%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$69.93	5.0%	5.4%	No position	+11.8%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$73.26	5.8%	4.0%	No position	−3.8%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$69.28	5.1%	3.1%	No position	+6.5%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$75.11	7.1%	2.0%	No position	−7.1%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$66.65	4.0%	2.0%	No position	+13.6%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$70.63	6.1%	2.0%	No position	−4.9%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$59.53	2.8%	4.0%	No position	+19.6%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$60.34	5.0%	4.0%	No position	−0.5%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$58.07	7.2%	2.0%	No position	+4.9%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$53.11	5.6%	4.4%	No position	+10.3%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$58.75	8.5%	9.8%	No position	−8.9%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$61.38	6.2%	12.6%	No position	−3.5%	+8.7%
December 31, 2022	$63.33	12.9%	12.8%	No position	−2.3%	+7.5%
September 30, 2022	$58.24	10.8%	11.7%	No position	+9.6%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$67.50	12.3%	9.7%	No position	−13.1%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$69.94	13.1%	8.2%	No position	−2.8%	−16.1%
December 31, 2021	$65.05	6.5%	4.6%	No position	+8.3%	−4.6%
September 30, 2021	$59.73	4.4%	2.3%	No position	+9.7%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$59.08	4.6%	2.0%	No position	+1.8%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$61.22	7.9%	2.0%	No position	−2.8%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$61.01	7.1%	2.0%	No position	+1.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$61.41	6.3%	2.0%	No position	−0.0%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$58.42	7.2%	2.0%	No position	+5.8%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$58.75	8.8%	2.0%	No position	+0.2%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$62.84	11.3%	2.0%	No position	−5.9%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$63.95	12.8%	3.3%	No position	−1.1%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$57.91	9.7%	4.2%	No position	+11.2%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$55.54	8.3%	3.3%	No position	+5.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$49.65	9.3%	3.2%	No position	+12.7%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$49.00	8.7%	2.1%	No position	+2.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$47.28	10.0%	2.0%	No position	+4.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$45.29	10.8%	2.0%	No position	+5.2%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$47.30	8.8%	2.0%	No position	−3.4%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$46.32	7.5%	2.0%	No position	+2.8%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$46.25	6.4%	2.0%	No position	+0.9%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$44.74	7.1%	2.0%	No position	+4.1%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$41.62	4.8%	2.0%	No position	+8.3%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$42.01	6.0%	2.0%	No position	−0.2%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$45.86	9.8%	2.0%	No position	−7.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$42.44	6.9%	4.0%	No position	+8.9%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$36.08	4.5%	2.0%	No position	+18.6%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$35.32	5.4%	2.0%	No position	+3.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$31.84	2.8%	2.0%	No position	+11.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$34.91	5.0%	6.3%	No position	−8.0%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$34.75	4.1%	6.5%	No position	+1.2%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$29.66	0.4%	6.2%	No position	+18.1%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$31.15	0.4%	6.3%	No position	−3.9%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$29.28	2.7%	2.9%	No position	+7.3%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$26.77	2.3%	2.8%	No position	+10.5%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$26.32	0.4%	4.3%	No position	+2.6%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$27.17	-0.0%	3.5%	No position	−2.3%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$27.94	4.8%	2.0%	No position	−1.9%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$24.38	3.5%	2.0%	No position	+15.7%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$23.55	3.1%	2.0%	No position	+4.6%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$23.50	2.5%	2.0%	No position	+1.2%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$22.00	-1.3%	2.0%	No position	+7.9%	−2.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

Is the price-to-earnings ratio cheap or dear for the growth delivered?

CMS Energy trades on 19.1 times earnings while its earnings per share grew 9.7% a year: a PEG of 1.97.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

PEG: under 0.75 cheap for the growth, over 3 expensive

Quarters with a position230 long, 23 short, since March 31, 2015

Beat the S&P 50015 of 2365.2% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+29.6%cumulative; worst fall -27.1%

$10,000 became$47,221S&P 500 bought and held: $42,175

Over time

The P/E divided by the earnings-per-share growth delivered over three years. Under 0.75 the market pays little for the growth (long); over 3 it pays a lot (short).

EPS growth, 3 years (%) Price-to-earnings ratio (x) Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 23 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 15, by +1.6% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	23	65.2%	+1.6%	+3.2%	+4.6%	0.78	No reliable evidence
All positions	23	65.2%	+1.6%	+3.2%	+4.6%	0.78	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (40)

From	Price paid	Price-to-earnings ratio (x)	EPS growth, 3 years (%)	Position	CMS	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$63.08	19.1x	9.7%	No position	+12.3%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$76.50	21.2x	15.5%	No position	−16.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$77.58	22.1x	7.2%	Short	−0.6%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$69.93	20.1x	19.7%	No position	+11.8%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$73.26	21.4x	17.3%	No position	−3.8%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$69.28	20.3x	15.4%	No position	+6.5%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$75.11	22.4x	15.1%	No position	−7.1%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$66.65	19.0x	5.3%	Short	+13.6%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$70.63	21.7x	1.7%	Short	−4.9%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$59.53	18.2x	3.4%	Short	+19.6%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$60.34	19.9x	4.9%	Short	−0.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2023	$61.38	21.3x	6.5%	Short	−3.5%	+8.7%
September 30, 2022	$58.24	27.5x	1.1%	Short	+9.6%	+7.6%
December 31, 2021	$65.05	21.6x	16.0%	No position	+8.3%	−4.6%
September 30, 2021	$59.73	19.2x	17.1%	No position	+9.7%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$59.08	19.8x	18.9%	No position	+1.8%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$61.22	23.2x	17.2%	No position	−2.8%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$61.01	22.9x	11.5%	No position	+1.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$61.41	23.4x	10.0%	No position	−0.0%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$58.42	23.5x	5.9%	Short	+5.8%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$58.75	24.6x	6.6%	Short	+0.2%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$62.84	28.8x	1.6%	Short	−5.9%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$63.95	31.1x	1.8%	Short	−1.1%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$57.91	26.1x	8.3%	Short	+11.2%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$55.54	24.0x	7.1%	Short	+5.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$49.65	25.8x	1.4%	Short	+12.7%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$49.00	25.2x	5.4%	Short	+2.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$47.28	26.6x	1.1%	Short	+4.4%	+7.7%
December 31, 2017	$47.30	24.7x	3.0%	Short	−3.4%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$46.32	23.4x	1.6%	Short	+2.8%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$46.25	22.1x	3.7%	Short	+0.9%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$44.74	22.7x	5.9%	Short	+4.1%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$41.62	20.0x	10.7%	No position	+8.3%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$42.01	21.6x	6.3%	Short	−0.2%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$45.86	26.3x	0.9%	Short	−7.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$42.44	22.5x	10.0%	No position	+8.9%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$36.08	19.5x	11.8%	No position	+18.6%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$35.32	21.3x	8.5%	No position	+3.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$31.84	18.5x	9.6%	No position	+11.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$34.91	20.2x	3.3%	Short	−8.0%	+0.2%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What profit margin is the price paying for?

The price implies an owner-earnings margin of 21.0%; the company has kept 18.4%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position530 long, 53 short, since March 31, 2012

Beat the S&P 50031 of 5358.5% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+6.6%cumulative; worst fall -47.2%

$10,000 became$59,370S&P 500 bought and held: $69,585

Over time

The owner-earnings margin (free cash flow after stock pay, as a share of revenue) the price requires at our model's growth, against the margin the company has delivered over three years.

Margin delivered Margin the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 53 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 31, by +0.5% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	53	58.5%	+0.5%	+2.4%	+0.5%	0.43	No reliable evidence
All positions	53	58.5%	+0.5%	+2.4%	+0.5%	0.43	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (59)

From	Price paid	Margin the price implies	Margin delivered	Position	CMS	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$63.08	21.0%	18.4%	No position	+12.3%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$76.50	21.8%	18.9%	No position	−16.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$77.58	23.2%	20.8%	No position	−0.6%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$69.93	23.6%	19.5%	No position	+11.8%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$73.26	26.6%	16.3%	Short	−3.8%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$69.28	27.5%	10.3%	Short	+6.5%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$75.11	31.8%	9.4%	Short	−7.1%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$66.65	29.3%	9.1%	Short	+13.6%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$70.63	30.0%	8.6%	Short	−4.9%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$59.53	24.5%	2.7%	Short	+19.6%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$60.34	24.5%	2.9%	Short	−0.5%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$58.07	25.6%	1.7%	Short	+4.9%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$53.11	20.0%	1.9%	Short	+10.3%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$58.75	14.5%	-3.7%	Short	−8.9%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$61.38	12.7%	-7.1%	Short	−3.5%	+8.7%
December 31, 2022	$63.33	12.8%	-6.1%	Short	−2.3%	+7.5%
September 30, 2022	$58.24	13.0%	-3.1%	Short	+9.6%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$67.50	16.4%	-1.8%	Short	−13.1%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$69.94	19.2%	-2.1%	Short	−2.8%	−16.1%
December 31, 2021	$65.05	23.8%	-2.5%	Short	+8.3%	−4.6%
September 30, 2021	$59.73	26.3%	-3.0%	Short	+9.7%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$59.08	29.4%	-2.3%	Short	+1.8%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$61.22	28.8%	-2.9%	Short	−2.8%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$61.01	30.6%	-0.3%	Short	+1.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$61.41	28.9%	-0.3%	Short	−0.0%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$58.42	27.6%	-0.7%	Short	+5.8%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$58.75	26.7%	2.1%	Short	+0.2%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$62.84	27.2%	2.6%	Short	−5.9%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$63.95	24.6%	3.1%	Short	−1.1%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$57.91	21.7%	3.0%	Short	+11.2%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$55.54	22.6%	3.4%	Short	+5.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$49.65	21.0%	4.0%	Short	+12.7%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$49.00	21.7%	5.4%	Short	+2.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$47.28	21.6%	5.0%	Short	+4.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$45.29	21.6%	5.5%	Short	+5.2%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$47.30	22.5%	5.6%	Short	−3.4%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$46.32	21.4%	5.3%	Short	+2.8%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$46.25	21.7%	4.6%	Short	+0.9%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$44.74	21.5%	4.6%	Short	+4.1%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$41.62	20.7%	4.2%	Short	+8.3%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$42.01	20.8%	4.0%	Short	−0.2%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$45.86	21.8%	4.0%	Short	−7.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$42.44	17.8%	5.1%	Short	+8.9%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$36.08	17.3%	6.0%	Short	+18.6%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$35.32	16.8%	5.8%	Short	+3.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$31.84	15.7%	5.1%	Short	+11.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$34.91	12.3%	4.8%	Short	−8.0%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$34.75	11.7%	3.0%	Short	+1.2%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$29.66	10.6%	4.0%	Short	+18.1%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$31.15	10.7%	5.1%	Short	−3.9%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$29.28	13.8%	7.0%	Short	+7.3%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$26.77	13.6%	6.4%	Short	+10.5%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$26.32	12.3%	6.7%	Short	+2.6%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$27.17	13.1%	7.3%	Short	−2.3%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$27.94	15.4%	7.4%	Short	−1.9%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$24.38	14.3%	7.9%	Short	+15.7%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$23.55	13.8%	7.6%	Short	+4.6%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$23.50	13.6%	9.3%	No position	+1.2%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$22.00	12.8%	9.9%	No position	+7.9%	−2.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What return on equity is the price paying for?

The price implies a return on equity of 14.5%; the company earned 11.3%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position330 long, 33 short, since March 31, 2012

Beat the S&P 50023 of 3369.7% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+154.3%cumulative; worst fall -27.1%

$10,000 became$141,343S&P 500 bought and held: $69,585

Over time

The return on equity that justifies the price-to-book ratio, (P/B)(r − g) + g with an 8.5% required return and 2.5% long-run growth, against the return the company delivered last year.

Return on equity delivered Return on equity the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 33 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 23, by +3.3% a quarter on average. That stands out clearly from chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	33	69.7%	+3.3%	+4.0%	+12.0%	2.08	Strong evidence
All positions	33	69.7%	+3.3%	+4.0%	+12.0%	2.08	Strong evidence

Every quarter (59)

From	Price paid	Return on equity the price implies	Return on equity delivered	Position	CMS	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$63.08	14.5%	11.3%	No position	+12.3%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$76.50	17.4%	12.4%	No position	−16.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$77.58	18.1%	12.3%	Short	−0.6%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$69.93	16.7%	12.3%	No position	+11.8%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$73.26	18.2%	12.5%	Short	−3.8%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$69.28	17.4%	12.5%	No position	+6.5%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$75.11	18.9%	12.7%	Short	−7.1%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$66.65	17.2%	13.7%	No position	+13.6%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$70.63	18.3%	12.8%	Short	−4.9%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$59.53	15.9%	12.9%	No position	+19.6%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$60.34	16.6%	12.2%	No position	−0.5%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$58.07	16.6%	10.6%	Short	+4.9%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$53.11	15.5%	10.5%	No position	+10.3%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$58.75	17.0%	9.9%	Short	−8.9%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$61.38	17.7%	12.3%	Short	−3.5%	+8.7%
December 31, 2022	$63.33	18.4%	9.1%	Short	−2.3%	+7.5%
September 30, 2022	$58.24	17.2%	9.7%	Short	+9.6%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$67.50	19.6%	10.2%	Short	−13.1%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$69.94	20.9%	10.5%	Short	−2.8%	−16.1%
December 31, 2021	$65.05	21.1%	15.3%	Short	+8.3%	−4.6%
September 30, 2021	$59.73	20.4%	16.4%	No position	+9.7%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$59.08	20.4%	15.8%	No position	+1.8%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$61.22	21.6%	14.4%	Short	−2.8%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$61.01	22.2%	14.9%	Short	+1.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$61.41	22.8%	15.0%	Short	−0.0%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$58.42	21.8%	14.1%	Short	+5.8%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$58.75	22.5%	13.9%	Short	+0.2%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$62.84	24.1%	12.8%	Short	−5.9%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$63.95	25.0%	12.2%	Short	−1.1%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$57.91	22.8%	13.3%	Short	+11.2%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$55.54	22.4%	14.3%	Short	+5.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$49.65	20.3%	11.8%	Short	+12.7%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$49.00	20.3%	12.0%	Short	+2.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$47.28	19.9%	11.2%	Short	+4.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$45.29	19.7%	10.6%	Short	+5.2%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$47.30	20.1%	12.3%	Short	−3.4%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$46.32	20.0%	12.9%	Short	+2.8%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$46.25	20.3%	13.8%	Short	+0.9%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$44.74	20.1%	13.4%	Short	+4.1%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$41.62	18.9%	14.2%	No position	+8.3%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$42.01	19.4%	13.6%	Short	−0.2%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$45.86	21.1%	12.3%	Short	−7.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$42.44	20.4%	13.8%	Short	+8.9%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$36.08	17.9%	13.6%	No position	+18.6%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$35.32	17.8%	12.3%	Short	+3.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$31.84	16.4%	12.8%	No position	+11.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$34.91	18.3%	13.4%	No position	−8.0%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$34.75	18.1%	13.7%	No position	+1.2%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$29.66	15.9%	14.8%	No position	+18.1%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$31.15	16.6%	14.8%	No position	−3.9%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$29.28	16.4%	13.6%	No position	+7.3%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$26.77	15.4%	12.7%	No position	+10.5%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$26.32	15.4%	13.7%	No position	+2.6%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$27.17	15.9%	14.4%	No position	−2.3%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$27.94	16.7%	12.3%	No position	−1.9%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$24.38	14.8%	11.4%	No position	+15.7%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$23.55	14.7%	11.4%	No position	+4.6%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$23.50	14.8%	11.7%	No position	+1.2%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$22.00	14.1%	14.3%	No position	+7.9%	−2.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from CMS Energy's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: AEE vs CMS CMS vs CNP CMS vs NI CMS vs PNW

More: Multi-Utilities stocks compared, Utilities sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from CMS Energy's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 29, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to CMS Energy.