CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a US-listed company in the diversified REITs industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$44
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$27–$52. Weighted average of 2 models (funds-from-operations model, dividend discount (growing dividend)), the funds-from-operations model counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $170m, up 15.9% on a year earlier, faster than the 14.3% growth a quarter earlier. That growth ranks 1 of 10 among the diversified reits companies we cover. The diluted share count is up 10.6% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders.
Source: 10-Q filed October 27, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 15.9% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 0.5%. Where it stands out: revenue growth of 15.9% ranks 1 of 15 diversified reits companies we cover. Where it lags: change in share count of 10.6% ranks 11 of 12 diversified reits companies we cover.
Current signal Results well short of expectations: Reported earnings per share missed the analysts' consensus estimate by 41% in the quarter to 2026-09-30.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The company also guided to affo per common share - diluted of $2.22 to $2.25 for the 2026; investment volume, including commercial loans & structured investments of $472.00m for the 2026.
We value CTO Realty Growth, Inc. as an equity reit, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7.7%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.62 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Funds-from-operations model Funds from operations growing 2.5% a year, discounted at 8%. | ~$52 ~$44–$64 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-FFO vs peers Funds from operations per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-FFO. | ~$0.9 ~$23–$46 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.05x) |
| Dividend discount (growing dividend) Today's dividend growing 2.5% a year, discounted at the cost of equity. | ~$27 ~$23–$33 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (funds-from-operations model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$44 ~$27–$52 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare CTO Realty Growth, Inc. with equity REITs in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Weak moat
How hard CTO Realty Growth's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 4.1% of total assets over 10 years.
Operating margin has been a median 33.6%; its worst year was -1.4%.
Free cash flow was positive in 3 of 10 years, at a median -156.6% of revenue.
The diluted share count rose 563.5% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 3.6% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.74 | +825% | $180m | +20% |
| Next | $0.62 | — | $199m | +11% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +10.4% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year |
|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.67 |
| 60 days ago | $0.70 |
| 30 days ago | $0.70 |
| 7 days ago | $0.70 |
| Now | $0.74 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.10 | $0.06 | −41.0% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.10 | $0.38 | +267.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.03 | $0.13 | +420.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.02 | $0.82 | +4819.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +30.1%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $141m | $161m | +14.3% |
| P/S multiple | 3.2x | 4.1x | +28.8% |
| Share count | 29m | 33m | −11.6% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| CTO | +57% | −4% | +4% | +24% | +2% | +15% |
| Industry peers (median) | +30% | −30% | +0% | −3% | −20% | −6% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| CTO | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 50% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| CTO | −11% | −21% | −19% | −11% | −21% | −14% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 48% from September 11, 2019 to July 9, 2020. Getting back needed a 92% gain, reached on February 26, 2021, 232 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27, 2026 | −3.1% | +0.9% | — | — |
| July 28, 2026 | +1.5% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −1.5% |
| April 28, 2026 | +4.4% | −0.5% | +5.2% | +6.5% |
| February 19, 2026 | +4.8% | +0.5% | +2.8% | −1.5% |
| October 28, 2025 | +0.5% | +0.3% | +3.5% | +10.1% |
| July 29, 2025 | −5.7% | −0.4% | −4.9% | −1.2% |
| May 1, 2025 | −0.7% | +2.2% | −3.3% | +0.9% |
| February 20, 2025 | −6.0% | −2.1% | −7.6% | −4.7% |
| October 24, 2024 | +0.1% | +0.2% | −1.0% | +1.3% |
| July 25, 2024 | +3.3% | +0.6% | +5.7% | −0.5% |
| May 2, 2024 | −2.0% | +2.2% | −0.7% | +2.8% |
| February 22, 2024 | +4.4% | +2.1% | +3.4% | +3.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $109.1M |
| FY24 Q1 | $112.5M |
| FY24 Q2 | $115.3M |
| FY24 Q3 | $118.7M |
| FY24 Q4 | $124.5M |
| FY25 Q1 | $132.2M |
| FY25 Q2 | $141M |
| FY25 Q3 | $146.9M |
| FY25 Q4 | $149.5M |
| FY26 Q1 | $154.9M |
| FY26 Q2 | $161.1M |
| FY26 Q3 | $170.3M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 32.6% |
| FY24 Q1 | 25.3% |
| FY24 Q2 | 19.6% |
| FY24 Q3 | 16.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 14.1% |
| FY25 Q1 | 17.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | 22.3% |
| FY25 Q3 | 23.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 20.1% |
| FY26 Q1 | 17.2% |
| FY26 Q2 | 14.3% |
| FY26 Q3 | 15.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 24.3% |
| FY24 Q1 | 33.8% |
| FY24 Q2 | 32.8% |
| FY24 Q3 | 29.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 14.1% |
| FY25 Q1 | 8.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | -5.1% |
| FY25 Q3 | -1.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 22.7% |
| FY26 Q1 | 23.5% |
| FY26 Q2 | 38.7% |
| FY26 Q3 | 37.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 2.0% |
| FY24 Q1 | 3.5% |
| FY24 Q2 | 0.4% |
| FY24 Q3 | 4.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | -4.2% |
| FY25 Q1 | -7.6% |
| FY25 Q2 | -6.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | -1.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | 3.1% |
| FY26 Q1 | 4.7% |
| FY26 Q2 | 5.9% |
| FY26 Q3 | 0.5% |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 26 | 36 | 43 | 66 | 39 | 44 | 45 | 56 | 70 | 82 | 109 | 125 | 150 | 170 |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 46 | 30 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 48 | 59 | 79 | 91 | 112 | 128 |
| EBITDA | 9 | 1 | −7 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 46 | 20 | 47 | 50 | 31 | 44 | 40 | 71 | 83 | 94 | 129 |
| Operating income | 6 | −1 | −9 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 38 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 27 | 18 | 34 | 64 |
| Net income | 1 | −1 | −5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 42 | 37 | 115 | 79 | 30 | 3 | 6 | −2 | 10 | 44 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.14 | −$0.04 | −$0.27 | $0.03 | $0.21 | $0.37 | $0.48 | $0.95 | $2.49 | $2.24 | $7.67 | $5.56 | $1.56 | −$0.09 | $0.03 | −$0.35 | $0.08 | $1.30 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +107.9% | +5.6% | +25.2% | +60.6% | +38.3% | +19.3% | +53.2% | −41.3% | +13.0% | +2.9% | +25.5% | +24.6% | +17.1% | +32.6% | +14.1% | +20.1% | +15.9% |
| EBITDA | — | −87.3% | −700.9% | — | +218.8% | +75.5% | +58.4% | +80.2% | −56.3% | +135.0% | +6.0% | −37.3% | +40.1% | −10.0% | +78.8% | +17.0% | +13.8% | +78.9% |
| Operating income | — | −118.7% | — | — | +626.9% | +100.5% | +61.0% | +87.4% | −79.6% | +305.2% | +9.0% | −64.1% | +90.1% | −54.3% | +148.5% | −33.6% | +93.1% | — |
| Net income | — | −175.3% | — | — | +514.7% | +73.3% | +30.8% | +94.7% | +156.7% | −10.9% | +209.3% | −31.7% | −61.9% | −89.5% | +75.1% | −135.5% | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | −126.2% | — | — | +540.0% | +71.9% | +30.0% | +99.3% | +162.5% | −10.2% | +242.3% | −27.5% | −71.9% | −105.8% | — | <−999% | — | — |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69.3% | 78.4% | 79.9% | 84.2% | 73.0% | 68.1% | 72.2% | 72.3% | 73.3% | 74.6% | 75.1% |
| EBITDA margin | 150.9% | 9.2% | −52.2% | 17.7% | 35.2% | 44.6% | 59.3% | 69.7% | 51.9% | 108.0% | 111.2% | 55.6% | 62.5% | 48.0% | 64.8% | 66.4% | 62.9% | 75.5% |
| Operating margin | 103.9% | −9.3% | −69.2% | 5.3% | 24.1% | 34.9% | 47.1% | 57.6% | 20.0% | 71.9% | 76.1% | 21.8% | 33.2% | 13.0% | 24.3% | 14.1% | 22.7% | 37.5% |
| Net margin | 13.6% | −4.9% | −36.3% | 3.7% | 14.1% | 17.7% | 19.4% | 24.7% | 107.9% | 85.1% | 255.8% | 139.2% | 42.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | −1.6% | 6.7% | 26.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −62.9% | −14.4% | −41.6% | −131.9% | −103.5% | −85.6% | −200.3% | −118.8% | — | −151.0% | −380.8% | −317.7% | −326.3% | −399.7% | 42.4% | 48.1% | 43.2% | 38.5% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | −0 | −0 | −2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 14 | 58 | 48 | 16 | 17 | 28 | 56 | 46 | 60 | 65 | 65 |
| Capital spending | 3 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 38 | 42 | 111 | 93 | — | 114 | 188 | 196 | 257 | 385 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −4 | −2 | −5 | −21 | −27 | −31 | −86 | −78 | — | −66 | −171 | −179 | −229 | −329 | 46 | 60 | 65 | 65 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | −1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −4 | −1 | −6 | −22 | −28 | −32 | −88 | −81 | — | −68 | −174 | −182 | −232 | −332 | 43 | 56 | 60 | 61 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 15 | 29 | 63 | 104 | 167 | 166 | 200 | 250 | 287 | 274 | 278 | 446 | 495 | 519 | 616 | 723 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −0 | −0 | 15 | 28 | 61 | 102 | 163 | 159 | 194 | 248 | 281 | 270 | 270 | 426 | 485 | 510 | 610 | 714 |
| Diluted shares | — | 17m | 17m | 17m | 17m | 17m | 17m | 17m | 17m | 17m | 15m | 14m | 18m | 19m | 23m | 25m | 32m | 34m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 29 | 34 | 40 | 49 | 53 |
| Buybacks | 0 | — | — | 0 | — | 1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 9 | — |
| Total returned | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 19 | 26 | 32 | 41 | 41 | 58 | 53 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 36 | 36 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
| Gross profit | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 |
| EBITDA | 22 | 22 | 3 | 25 | 44 | 26 | 29 | 29 |
| Operating income | −7 | 8 | −13 | 10 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| Net income | −15 | 2 | −23 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 15 | −5 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.70 | $0.01 | −$0.77 | $0.03 | $0.82 | $0.13 | $0.38 | −$0.19 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +19.6% | +27.3% | +30.5% | +18.7% | +7.3% | +15.0% | +16.5% | +24.3% |
| EBITDA | +2.3% | −12.6% | −84.6% | +37.3% | +100.6% | +18.0% | +>999% | +16.1% |
| Operating income | −171.7% | −45.8% | −333.4% | +102.1% | — | +30.7% | — | +15.4% |
| Net income | −316.2% | −61.3% | <−999% | −53.2% | — | +174.4% | — | −277.5% |
| Diluted EPS | −369.2% | −95.0% | — | −82.4% | — | +>999% | — | −733.3% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 74.4% | 75.2% | 73.0% | 75.4% | 75.0% | 75.3% | 74.6% | 75.3% |
| EBITDA margin | 61.7% | 62.1% | 7.0% | 66.1% | 115.3% | 63.8% | 66.4% | 61.7% |
| Operating margin | −20.4% | 22.0% | −33.7% | 26.6% | 75.1% | 25.0% | 30.2% | 24.7% |
| Net margin | −42.6% | 6.3% | −62.2% | 7.7% | 73.9% | 15.1% | 34.5% | −11.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 39.3% | 28.8% | 45.5% | 81.7% | 16.5% | 35.5% | 45.6% | 52.4% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 14 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 25 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 14 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 25 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 13 | 9 | 16 | 30 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 23 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | CTO | GOOD | XRN | ALX | CMCT | NXDT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $170m | $170m | $153m | $233m | $114m | $78m | $170m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 15.9% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | −3.6% | −20.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 18.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 0.4% | −2.4% | 2.4% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 24.3% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 34.9% | −0.0% | −8.1% | 4.7% |
| Operating margin | 37.5% | — | — | 43.2% | — | −1.6% | 31.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 21.9% | — | — | — | — | 4.4% | 21.6% |
| Net margin | 26.1% | 14.5% | 32.0% | 81.9% | −37.0% | −94.2% | 0.2% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 38.5% | 41.2% | 49.0% | 22.8% | −13.6% | −4.0% | 38.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 0.5% | 5.6% | 19.7% | 7.4% | −13.6% | −24.9% | 5.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 1.2% | 8.6% | 20.1% | 13.8% | 0.5% | −23.8% | 1.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 2.7% | — | 3.4% | — | 0.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Change in share count | 10.6% | 8.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | −0.9% | 20.8% | 0.5% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 15.9% | 2.5% | 1 of 15 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +1.6pp | +1.0pp | 6 of 15 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 37.5% | 37.5% | 3 of 6 |
| Net margin Profitability | 26.1% | 0.2% | 6 of 15 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4 of 13 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 48.0% | 52.8% | 5 of 10 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 10.6% | 1.5% | 11 of 12 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income Properties | $132M | 88.4% | ▲ 19.5% |
| Commercial Loan Investments | $12.5M | 8.4% | ▲ 70.4% |
| Management Services | $4.8M | 3.2% | ▲ 5.6% |
From CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 10-K filed February 19, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $77.6M | 3.6M | 14.4% | ▲ 9.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $35.1M | 1.6M | 6.5% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $29.8M | 1.4M | 5.5% | ▲ 2.7% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | $29.2M | 1.4M | 5.4% | ▲ 54.0% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $21.8M | 1.0M | 4.1% | ▲ 21.1% |
| State Street Corp | $15.8M | 733K | 2.9% | ▲ 3.2% |
| Heitman Real Estate Securities LLC | $15.3M | 710K | 2.8% | ▼ 4.3% |
| Cutler Capital Management, LLC | $14M | 651K | 2.6% | ▼ 1.2% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $12.3M | 572K | 2.3% | ▲ 6.2% |
| Grace & White Inc | $12M | 559K | 2.2% | ▼ 5.5% |
| Miller Value Partners, LLC | $11.6M | 540K | 2.2% | ▼ 2.9% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $10.1M | 469K | 1.9% | ▲ 5.7% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around January 26, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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