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Mueller Water Products, Inc.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 3.6% a year; our model expects 5.1%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 3.6% a year; our model expects 5.1%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position370 long, 37 short, since December 31, 2011
Beat the S&P 50017 of 3745.9% of quarters held
Strategy against the index−52.5%cumulative; worst fall -59.4%
$10,000 became$40,478S&P 500 bought and held: $78,415

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

2%13%24%34%45% 20112013201520172019202120232025 $2.3$11.2$20.0$28.9 Short from 2012-06-30Short from 2012-09-30Short from 2012-12-31Short from 2013-03-31Short from 2013-06-30Short from 2013-09-30Short from 2013-12-31Short from 2014-03-31Short from 2014-06-30Short from 2015-06-30Short from 2016-03-31Short from 2016-06-30Short from 2016-09-30Short from 2016-12-31Short from 2017-03-31Short from 2017-06-30Short from 2017-09-30Short from 2017-12-31Short from 2018-03-31Short from 2018-06-30Short from 2018-09-30Short from 2019-06-30Short from 2019-09-30Short from 2019-12-31Short from 2020-03-31Short from 2020-06-30Short from 2020-09-30Short from 2020-12-31Short from 2021-03-31Short from 2021-06-30Short from 2023-06-30Short from 2023-12-31Short from 2024-03-31Short from 2024-06-30Short from 2024-09-30Short from 2024-12-31Short from 2025-03-31
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$25.0k$50.0k$75.0k 20112013201520172019202120232025 $78.4k$40.5k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into MWA in long quarters and adds a short of MWA in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 37 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 17, by −1.3% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 0 — — — — — —
Shorts 37 45.9% −1.3% −1.7% −7.7% -0.68 No reliable evidence
All positions 37 45.9% −1.3% −1.7% −7.7% -0.68 No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (60)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionMWAS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $21.24 3.6% 5.1% No position +12.4% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $25.83 8.4% 5.1% No position −17.6% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $27.49 9.2% 4.9% No position −5.8% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $23.82 9.3% 6.7% No position +15.7% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $25.52 15.1% 7.5% No position −6.4% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $24.04 17.0% 8.0% No position +6.4% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $25.42 20.4% 8.9% Short −5.2% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $22.50 21.5% 4.4% Short +13.3% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $21.70 26.7% 2.0% Short +4.0% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $17.92 27.7% 2.0% Short +21.5% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $16.09 21.7% 2.0% Short +11.8% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $14.40 24.8% 6.0% Short +12.3% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $12.68 18.6% 9.2% No position +14.1% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $16.23 22.9% 9.7% Short −21.5% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $13.94 19.0% 10.9% No position +16.9% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $10.76 15.6% 10.6% No position +30.1% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $10.27 12.9% 10.2% No position +5.3% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $11.73 14.3% 13.8% No position −12.0% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $12.92 16.6% 11.5% No position −8.8% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $14.40 20.1% 10.9% No position −9.9% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $15.22 19.1% 9.3% No position −5.1% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $14.42 17.9% 2.0% Short +5.9% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $13.89 19.2% 2.9% Short +4.2% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $12.38 20.4% 2.4% Short +12.7% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $10.39 22.4% 3.5% Short +19.8% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $9.43 27.1% 8.2% Short +10.7% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $8.01 21.4% 6.6% Short +18.4% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $11.98 25.4% 6.1% Short −32.9% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $11.24 24.1% 4.8% Short +7.1% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $9.82 19.4% 2.8% Short +15.1% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $10.04 12.6% 4.7% No position −1.6% +4.2%
December 31, 2018 $9.10 10.4% 4.0% No position +10.9% +13.5%
September 30, 2018 $11.51 14.9% 4.0% Short −20.6% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $11.72 17.0% 4.0% Short −1.4% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $10.87 18.7% 4.0% Short +8.3% +3.5%
December 31, 2017 $12.53 25.4% 2.0% Short −12.8% −1.0%
September 30, 2017 $12.80 19.6% 2.0% Short −1.8% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $11.68 17.9% 4.0% Short +9.9% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $11.82 18.3% 4.0% Short −0.8% +3.1%
December 31, 2016 $13.31 21.0% 4.0% Short −10.9% +5.9%
September 30, 2016 $12.55 17.6% 4.0% Short +6.3% +4.0%
June 30, 2016 $11.42 16.6% 4.0% Short +10.2% +3.8%
March 31, 2016 $9.88 14.0% 4.0% Short +15.9% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $8.60 8.4% 2.0% No position +15.2% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $7.66 9.3% 3.5% No position +12.5% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $9.10 17.1% 5.7% Short −15.6% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $9.85 14.9% 6.0% No position −7.4% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $10.24 11.0% 6.4% No position −3.6% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $8.28 13.3% 3.8% No position +23.9% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $8.64 17.9% 2.0% Short −4.0% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $9.50 22.6% 2.3% Short −8.9% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $9.37 20.4% 4.0% Short +1.6% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $7.99 24.9% 11.0% Short +17.5% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $6.91 40.9% 10.4% Short +15.9% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $5.93 45.1% 9.0% Short +16.8% +2.9%
December 31, 2012 $5.61 23.3% 6.2% Short +6.0% +10.5%
September 30, 2012 $4.90 36.9% 2.0% Short +14.9% −0.4%
June 30, 2012 $3.46 40.2% 4.0% Short +42.3% +6.3%
March 31, 2012 $3.33 7.4% 4.0% No position +4.4% −2.8%
December 31, 2011 $2.44 6.1% 4.0% No position +37.3% +12.7%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: CMCO vs MWAMWA vs PKOH

More: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components stocks compared, Industrials sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 26, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Mueller Water Products, Inc.