Oatly Group AB is a US-listed company in the packaged foods & meats industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$6.3
Price-to-sales vs peers
Base case. Range ~$6.3–$41. Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 1 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
Oatly Group AB valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $862m, up 4.7% on a year earlier, about the same pace as a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to -4.2% from -75.8% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to -7.9% from -33.2%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades D. It passes 1 of our 7 financial-health checks. Our price-to-sales vs peers value is $5.98 a share, against a share price of $7.75.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Oatly Group AB's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 4.7% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -4.2%. Where it lags: long-term debt as % of assets of 46.4% ranks 31 of 35 packaged foods & meats companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 76.5% while net income grew 24.4%: a 52pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for OTLY from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Oatly Group AB as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.47 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-sales vs peers Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative. | ~$6.3 ~$10–$41 | Included, half weight |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (revenue-to-maturity model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$6.3 ~$6.3–$41 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Oatly Group AB with Packaged Foods & Meats in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | — | — | $965m | +12% |
| Next | — | — | $1.0bn | +6% |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | −$0.66 | −$0.77 | −17.3% |
| Jun 2026 | −$0.95 | −$0.95 | +0.5% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.90 | −$0.37 | +58.9% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.42 | −$0.02 | +94.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | $204M |
| FY20 Q4 | $421.4M |
| FY21 Q4 | $643.2M |
| FY22 Q4 | $722.2M |
| FY23 Q4 | $783.3M |
| FY24 Q4 | $823.7M |
| FY25 Q4 | $862.5M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 106.5% |
| FY21 Q4 | 52.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | 12.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 8.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 5.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | 4.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | -15.1% |
| FY20 Q4 | -11.2% |
| FY21 Q4 | -33.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | -54.8% |
| FY23 Q4 | -58.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | -22.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | -7.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | -45.4% |
| FY20 Q4 | -42.4% |
| FY21 Q4 | -75.8% |
| FY22 Q4 | -65.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | -29.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | -18.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | -4.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||
| Revenue | 204 | 421 | 643 | 722 | 783 | 824 | 862 |
| Gross profit | 67 | 129 | 155 | 80 | 152 | 236 | 277 |
| EBITDA | −23 | −34 | −187 | −347 | −405 | −136 | −18 |
| Operating income | −31 | −47 | −214 | −396 | −457 | −186 | −68 |
| Net income | −36 | −60 | −212 | −393 | −417 | −202 | −153 |
| Diluted EPS | — | −$2.60 | −$7.80 | −$13.20 | −$14.00 | −$6.80 | −$5.00 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||
| Revenue | — | +106.5% | +52.6% | +12.3% | +8.5% | +5.1% | +4.7% |
| Margins | |||||||
| Gross margin | 32.6% | 30.7% | 24.1% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 28.7% | 32.1% |
| EBITDA margin | −11.1% | −8.1% | −29.0% | −48.1% | −51.7% | −16.5% | −2.1% |
| Operating margin | −15.1% | −11.2% | −33.2% | −54.8% | −58.3% | −22.6% | −7.9% |
| Net margin | −17.5% | −14.3% | −33.0% | −54.4% | −53.2% | −24.5% | −17.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −45.4% | −42.4% | −75.8% | −65.2% | −29.6% | −18.6% | −4.2% |
| Cash flow | |||||||
| Cash from operations | −39 | −44 | −214 | −269 | −166 | −114 | −24 |
| Capital spending | 54 | 134 | 274 | 202 | 66 | 39 | 12 |
| Free cash flow | −93 | −179 | −488 | −471 | −232 | −154 | −36 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 1 | 24 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 13 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −95 | −180 | −511 | −506 | −253 | −167 | −49 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| Cash | 11 | 105 | 296 | 83 | 249 | 99 | 64 |
| Total debt | 0 | 97 | 12 | 103 | 126 | 452 | 710 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −11 | −8 | −284 | 20 | −123 | 353 | 646 |
| Diluted shares | 20m | 23m | 27m | 30m | 30m | 30m | 30m |
| Last 12 months unless stated | OTLY | VITL | TR | JBSS | FRPT | HAIN | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $862m | $766m | $735m | $1.2bn | $1.2bn | $1.4bn | $1.5bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 4.7% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 12.8% | −13.2% | 2.1% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 21.4% | 0.4% | 5.9% | 20.8% | −9.0% | 1.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | −10.1% | −0.6% | −3.5% | 15.5% | −27.6% | −1.8% |
| Gross margin | 32.1% | 28.1% | 34.5% | 17.7% | 41.4% | 20.1% | 25.6% |
| Operating margin | −7.9% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | −15.0% | 3.1% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 6.9% | 13.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | −15.2% | 4.8% |
| Net margin | −17.7% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 17.3% | −22.5% | 2.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −2.8% | −2.2% | 17.0% | 8.8% | 17.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −4.2% | −16.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | −2.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | −2.6% | 2.9% | 5.7% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.5% | 1.0% | — | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Change in share count | 1.8% | −1.7% | −1.8% | 0.6% | 17.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 4.7% | 2.2% | 17 of 44 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -0.4pp | -1.0pp | 19 of 44 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 32.1% | 25.6% | 14 of 43 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -7.9% | 3.4% | 30 of 42 |
| Net margin Profitability | -17.7% | 2.3% | 38 of 44 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -4.2% | 4.3% | 34 of 43 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.5% | 0.6% | 31 of 39 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 46.4% | 18.5% | 31 of 35 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 1.8% | 0.1% | 31 of 40 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc. | $18.6M | 2.0M | 47.8% | 0.0% |
| Credit Agricole S A | $12.5M | 1.3M | 32.2% | ▲ 53.6% |
| UBS Group AG | $3M | 319K | 7.7% | ▲ 30.1% |
| Storebrand Asset Management As | $630,723 | 67K | 1.6% | ▲ 5.2% |
| Marshall Wace, LLP | $521,814 | 56K | 1.3% | ▼ 22.0% |
| Tidal Investments LLC | $517,644 | 55K | 1.3% | New |
| Maven Securities Ltd | $425,575 | 46K | 1.1% | New |
| Trexquant Investment LP | $347,390 | 37K | 0.9% | ▲ 65.0% |
| Shikiar Asset Management Inc | $318,000 | 34K | 0.8% | ▲ 41.7% |
| Morgan Stanley | $301,931 | 32K | 0.8% | ▼ 17.4% |
| R Squared Ltd | $240,950 | 26K | 0.6% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Jump Financial, LLC | $193,124 | 21K | 0.5% | New |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Oatly Group AB's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flatin Jean-Christophe Marie Chief Executive Officer | June 2, 2026 | Sell | 1,934 | $8.94 | $17,290 |
| Ordonez Daniel Eduardo Global President & COO | June 2, 2026 | Sell | 39,066 | $8.95 | $349,641 |
| Broadbent Simon Kenneth James SVP Operations & Sust. | June 2, 2026 | Sell | 7,820 | $8.95 | $69,989 |
| Lind Martin Fredrik Principal Accounting Officer | June 2, 2026 | Sell | 2,968 | $8.96 | $26,593 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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