Ponce Financial Group, Inc. is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$12
Valuation models combined (3)
Base case. Range ~$11–$13. Weighted average of 3 models (price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, price-to-earnings vs peers).
Overvalued
The price is above our entire value range; our base value is 46% below it.
Price used: $22.44, November 2, 2026
Ponce Financial Group, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $120m, up 27.6% on a year earlier, slower than the 31.0% growth a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 2.2% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders.
Source: 10-Q filed August 5, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 27.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 48.0%. Where it stands out: revenue growth of 27.6% ranks 46 of 245 regional banks companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 119.3% while net income grew 93.8%: a 26pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Ponce Financial Group, Inc. as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.79 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$4.3 ~$2.5–$7.4 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.19x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity below long-run growth |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$12 ~$4.9–$20 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$11 ~$14–$22 | Included |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$13 ~$15–$20 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | — | Does not apply: pays no regular dividend |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$12 ~$11–$13 | 3 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Ponce Financial Group, Inc. with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Weak moat
How hard Ponce Financial Group's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 6 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 0.3% of total assets over 5 years.
Net margin has been a median 13.2%; its worst year was -33.6%.
The diluted share count rose 40.3% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 2.1% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (22 before it).
Next results: January 26, 2027, before the open. Analysts expect EPS of $0.46 (range $0.46 to $0.46) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $1.59 | +33% | — | — |
| Next | $2.08 | +31% | — | — |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +17.5% in 90 days, across 1 analysts.
In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $1.77 |
| 60 days ago | $1.77 |
| 30 days ago | $1.77 |
| 7 days ago | $1.77 |
| Now | $2.08 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $9.40 | $0.76 | −91.9% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.37 | $0.35 | −5.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.28 | $0.42 | +50.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +59.0%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $94m | $120m | +27.6% |
| Net margin | 18.5% | 28.1% | +51.9% |
| P/E multiple | 18.5x | 15.5x | −16.1% |
| Share count | 23m | 23m | −2.2% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
Last 3 years +175.7%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $71m | $120m | +69.9% |
| P/S multiple | 2.7x | 4.4x | +63.1% |
| Share count | 23m | 23m | −0.5% |
Biggest factor: revenue. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| PDLB | +38% | −10% | +5% | +33% | +26% | +37% |
| Industry peers (median) | +34% | −4% | −2% | +16% | +10% | +24% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| PDLB | 50% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 73% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| PDLB | −17% | −18% | −34% | −18% | −21% | −5% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since October 2, 2017: 54% from November 28, 2017 to May 15, 2020. Getting back needed a 119% gain, reached on November 6, 2024, 1636 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27, 2026 | +1.4% | +0.3% | +1.5% | 0.0% |
| April 24, 2026 | +0.3% | +0.9% | +0.4% | +7.5% |
| January 27, 2026 | +2.0% | +0.4% | +2.7% | +1.6% |
| October 24, 2025 | +1.9% | +2.0% | −1.9% | +7.6% |
| July 25, 2025 | +4.7% | +0.4% | +1.4% | +8.1% |
| April 25, 2025 | +9.8% | +0.8% | +13.5% | +16.2% |
| January 28, 2025 | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.9% | −2.3% |
| December 11, 2024 | −0.4% | +0.3% | −5.5% | −1.1% |
| October 30, 2024 | −1.5% | −2.3% | +12.4% | +13.2% |
| July 30, 2024 | +0.6% | +1.1% | −5.7% | +12.4% |
| April 30, 2024 | +4.3% | −1.9% | +6.2% | +12.6% |
| January 30, 2024 | −3.5% | −1.7% | −5.6% | −6.1% |
How Ponce Financial Group, Inc.’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: rated Sell.
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: no liquid put and call pair for the same expiry.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $73.6M |
| FY23 Q4 | $75.5M |
| FY24 Q1 | $79M |
| FY24 Q2 | $81.3M |
| FY24 Q3 | $79.3M |
| FY24 Q4 | $83.7M |
| FY25 Q1 | $87.7M |
| FY25 Q2 | $94.1M |
| FY25 Q3 | $100.6M |
| FY25 Q4 | $109.2M |
| FY26 Q1 | $114.9M |
| FY26 Q2 | $120M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -4.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 3.4% |
| FY24 Q1 | 12.0% |
| FY24 Q2 | 15.2% |
| FY24 Q3 | 7.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 10.9% |
| FY25 Q1 | 11.1% |
| FY25 Q2 | 15.6% |
| FY25 Q3 | 26.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 30.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | 31.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | 27.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 3.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | 8.1% |
| FY24 Q1 | -0.2% |
| FY24 Q2 | 3.9% |
| FY24 Q3 | -23.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 5.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | 20.2% |
| FY25 Q2 | 27.9% |
| FY25 Q3 | 41.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 50.0% |
| FY26 Q1 | 48.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | 48.0% |
What Ponce Financial Group earned on its loans and securities in FY2025, what it paid depositors and lenders, and how its revenue split between running costs, credit losses, tax and profit.
| Interest income | $186M | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee and other income | $9.4M | 8.6% of revenue |
| Interest paid | $85.7M | |
| Net interest income | $99.8M | 91.4% of revenue |
| Revenue | $109M | |
| Non-interest expense | $67M | 61.4% of revenue |
| Credit-loss provisions | $3.8M | 3.5% of revenue |
| Pre-tax profit | $38.4M | 35.2% of revenue |
| Income tax | $9.7M | 8.9% of revenue |
| Net income | $28.7M | 26.3% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 41 | 55 | 93 | 73 | 75 | 84 | 109 | 120 |
| Net income | −5 | 4 | 25 | −30 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 34 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.29 | $0.23 | $1.51 | −$1.32 | $0.15 | $0.46 | $1.20 | $1.45 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | +35.3% | +69.3% | −21.9% | +3.4% | +10.9% | +30.5% | +27.6% |
| Net income | — | — | +559.6% | −218.0% | — | +227.3% | +161.6% | +93.8% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | +556.5% | −187.4% | — | +206.7% | +160.9% | +89.6% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | −12.6% | 7.0% | 27.2% | −41.1% | 4.4% | 13.1% | 26.3% | 28.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 3.0% | −53.2% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 50.0% | 48.0% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 5 | −28 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 56 | 58 |
| Capital spending | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow | 1 | −29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 58 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −0 | −31 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 53 | 55 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||
| Cash | 28 | 72 | 154 | 54 | 139 | 140 | 126 | 140 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 517 | 684 | 596 | 596 | 621 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −28 | −72 | −154 | 463 | 545 | 456 | 470 | 481 |
| Diluted shares | 17m | 17m | 17m | 23m | 23m | 23m | 23m | 23m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||
| Buybacks | 16 | 5 | 2 | — | 11 | — | — | — |
| Total returned | 16 | 5 | 2 | — | 11 | — | — | — |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 20 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 32 |
| Net income | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.10 | $0.12 | $0.25 | $0.25 | $0.27 | $0.43 | $0.36 | $0.35 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −9.0% | +23.5% | +19.7% | +31.4% | +32.5% | +37.6% | +23.1% | +19.3% |
| Net income | −6.1% | +466.2% | +146.9% | +91.1% | +167.5% | +245.6% | +44.7% | +39.3% |
| Diluted EPS | −16.7% | +500.0% | +127.3% | +78.6% | +170.0% | +258.3% | +44.0% | +40.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 12.1% | 12.8% | 24.2% | 23.0% | 24.3% | 32.3% | 28.5% | 26.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −74.1% | 98.1% | 52.6% | 22.4% | 2.9% | 111.3% | 45.7% | 25.5% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −15 | 23 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 35 | 14 | 8 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −15 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 35 | 14 | 8 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −15 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 34 | 13 | 7 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | PDLB | ISTR | CHMG | PCB | BWFG | CZFS | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $120m | $120m | $120m | $120m | $122m | $118m | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 27.6% | 30.5% | 40.0% | 11.8% | 31.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 19.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 12.2% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 19.3% | 65.2% | 208.6% | 4.8% | 26.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 28.1% | 28.1% | 27.9% | 34.7% | 35.2% | 34.8% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 48.5% | 22.5% | 38.9% | 34.3% | 29.4% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 48.0% | 19.1% | 37.7% | 33.9% | 28.3% | 31.2% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 26.6% | 17.5% | 32.9% | 34.0% | 28.0% | 33.2% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.9% | 1.7% | — | 0.8% | 2.8% | — | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | 2.2% | 36.1% | 0.7% | −1.1% | 1.4% | −0.3% | 0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 27.6% | 12.5% | 46 of 245 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -3.4pp | +0.0pp | 193 of 244 |
| Net margin Profitability | 28.1% | 28.7% | 131 of 245 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.9% | 1.3% | 160 of 206 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 2.2% | 0.4% | 159 of 230 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $38.1M | 1.9M | 16.6% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $34.6M | 1.7M | 15.0% | ▲ 7.0% |
| M3F, Inc. | $33.9M | 1.7M | 14.7% | ▼ 15.2% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $19M | 955K | 8.3% | ▲ 1.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $17.5M | 878K | 7.6% | ▲ 0.9% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $10.1M | 508K | 4.4% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $9.9M | 496K | 4.3% | ▲ 7.1% |
| State Street Corp | $7.6M | 381K | 3.3% | ▲ 12.4% |
| Alliancebernstein L.P. | $6M | 358K | 2.6% | ▲ 24.0% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $4.7M | 235K | 2.0% | ▲ 447.6% |
| Renaissance Technologies LLC | $4.6M | 231K | 2.0% | ▼ 4.5% |
| Mangrove Partners Im, LLC | $3.8M | 191K | 1.7% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Ponce Financial Group, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kouzilos Ioannis EVP & Chief Lending Officer | February 11, 2026 | Sell | 10,929 | $16.81 | $183,716 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around October 23, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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