Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a US-listed company in the consumer finance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$23
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$5.1–$40. Weighted average of 2 models (price-to-book vs peers, forward price-to-earnings vs peers).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Model value +97.1%
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $1.43bn, up 14.8% on a year earlier, slower than the 20.5% growth a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 17.0% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Our model value rises from $11.45 to $22.57 a share, against a share price of $18.13.
Source: 10-Q filed November 2, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $1.39bn, up 20.5% on a year earlier, slower than the 23.4% growth a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 21.6% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Our valuation models combined value is $11.45 a share, against a share price of $18.90.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 14.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 16.3%. Where it lags: change in share count of 17.0% ranks 34 of 38 consumer finance companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth decelerating: TTM revenue growth slowed to 14.8% (-5.8pp vs the prior quarter), the 4th consecutive quarterly slowdown.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Pagaya Technologies Ltd. as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 11.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.38 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$1.9 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.10x) |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$5.1 ~$6.6–$9.8 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$40 ~$38–$48 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | — | Does not apply: pays no regular dividend |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$23 ~$5.1–$40 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Pagaya Technologies Ltd. with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $3.70 | +12% | $1.5bn | +13% |
| Next | $4.10 | +11% | $1.7bn | +16% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +16.2% in 90 days, across 8 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +20.7% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s forecast and 4 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $3.06 | $3.53 |
| 60 days ago | $3.69 | $4.04 |
| 30 days ago | $3.75 | $4.15 |
| 7 days ago | $3.70 | $4.12 |
| Now | $3.70 | $4.10 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $1.00 | $1.07 | +7.5% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.72 | $1.07 | +48.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.56 | $0.73 | +29.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.77 | $0.80 | +4.4% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −32.6%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $1.2bn | $1.4bn | +20.5% |
| P/S multiple | 1.8x | 1.2x | −32.0% |
| Share count | 76m | 92m | −17.8% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | |||||
| PGY | −88% | +11% | −44% | +125% | −13% |
| Industry peers (median) | −33% | +15% | +30% | +20% | +1% |
| S&P 500 | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |||||
| PGY | 25% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |||||
| PGY | −98% | −59% | −53% | −53% | −59% |
| S&P 500 | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since April 21, 2021: 98% from August 2, 2022 to December 19, 2022. Getting back needed a 5127% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2026 | −6.1% | −2.1% | — | — |
| July 30, 2026 | +19.0% | +2.4% | +32.3% | +35.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | +2.4% | +0.5% | −8.3% | +3.0% |
| February 9, 2026 | −26.6% | +0.2% | −34.0% | −38.4% |
| November 10, 2025 | +13.6% | +1.8% | −8.8% | +1.0% |
| August 7, 2025 | −8.6% | +0.7% | +6.9% | +18.7% |
| July 17, 2025 | +32.3% | +0.5% | +36.8% | +41.5% |
| May 7, 2025 | +20.7% | +1.1% | +31.1% | +52.4% |
| February 13, 2025 | +30.5% | +1.1% | +23.1% | −2.5% |
| November 12, 2024 | −39.7% | −0.3% | −49.0% | −43.9% |
| August 9, 2024 | −21.6% | +0.5% | −21.0% | −21.3% |
| May 9, 2024 | +20.8% | +0.7% | +12.3% | +15.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $812.1M |
| FY24 Q1 | $870.7M |
| FY24 Q2 | $925.4M |
| FY24 Q3 | $970.9M |
| FY24 Q4 | $1B |
| FY25 Q1 | $1.1B |
| FY25 Q2 | $1.2B |
| FY25 Q3 | $1.2B |
| FY25 Q4 | $1.3B |
| FY26 Q1 | $1.3B |
| FY26 Q2 | $1.4B |
| FY26 Q3 | $1.4B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | 27.1% |
| FY25 Q1 | 23.7% |
| FY25 Q2 | 24.6% |
| FY25 Q3 | 28.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 26.1% |
| FY26 Q1 | 23.4% |
| FY26 Q2 | 20.5% |
| FY26 Q3 | 14.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | -3.0% |
| FY24 Q1 | 0.9% |
| FY24 Q2 | 2.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | 4.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 6.5% |
| FY25 Q1 | 9.9% |
| FY25 Q2 | 13.7% |
| FY25 Q3 | 17.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 20.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 22.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | 24.9% |
| FY26 Q3 | 26.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | -5.2% |
| FY24 Q1 | -0.0% |
| FY24 Q2 | 1.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | -1.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | 2.9% |
| FY25 Q1 | 4.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | 8.4% |
| FY25 Q3 | 13.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 17.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 17.6% |
| FY26 Q2 | 18.1% |
| FY26 Q3 | 16.3% |
| Fiscal year | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||
| Revenue | 99 | 475 | 749 | 812 | 1,032 | 1,301 | 1,430 |
| Gross profit | 50 | 242 | 298 | 303 | 435 | 552 | 628 |
| EBITDA | 22 | −5 | −245 | −5 | 96 | 294 | 397 |
| Operating income | 21 | −6 | −252 | −24 | 67 | 264 | 378 |
| Net income | 14 | −91 | −302 | −128 | −401 | 81 | 154 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.02 | −$8.25 | −$8.22 | −$2.14 | −$5.66 | $0.93 | $1.63 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||
| Revenue | — | +379.3% | +57.8% | +8.4% | +27.1% | +26.1% | +14.8% |
| EBITDA | — | −123.2% | — | — | — | +207.5% | +60.8% |
| Operating income | — | −127.3% | — | — | — | +294.7% | +75.2% |
| Net income | — | −729.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | <−999% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Margins | |||||||
| Gross margin | 50.4% | 51.0% | 39.8% | 37.3% | 42.1% | 42.4% | 43.9% |
| EBITDA margin | 21.8% | −1.1% | −32.7% | −0.6% | 9.3% | 22.6% | 27.8% |
| Operating margin | 21.5% | −1.2% | −33.6% | −3.0% | 6.5% | 20.3% | 26.4% |
| Net margin | 14.6% | −19.2% | −40.4% | −15.8% | −38.9% | 6.3% | 10.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 3.2% | 9.1% | −8.3% | −5.2% | 2.9% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| Cash flow | |||||||
| Cash from operations | 4 | 50 | −40 | −22 | 48 | 239 | 247 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 7 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 13 |
| Free cash flow | 3 | 43 | −62 | −42 | 30 | 225 | 234 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 68 | 242 | 71 | 61 | 54 | 34 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 3 | −25 | −304 | −113 | −31 | 171 | 200 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| Cash | 5 | 191 | 310 | 186 | 188 | 235 | 247 |
| Total debt | 0 | 38 | 140 | 272 | 341 | 194 | 314 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −5 | −153 | −170 | 85 | 153 | −41 | 67 |
| Diluted shares | 17m | 16m | 38m | 60m | 71m | 83m | 94m |
| Quarter | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 279 | 290 | 326 | 350 | 335 | 318 | 387 | 390 |
| Gross profit | 121 | 123 | 135 | 150 | 145 | 140 | 168 | 175 |
| EBITDA | 40 | 55 | 64 | 88 | 87 | 84 | 110 | 117 |
| Operating income | 32 | 48 | 56 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 106 | 113 |
| Net income | −238 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 34 | 25 | 45 | 50 |
| Diluted EPS | −$3.31 | $0.10 | $0.20 | $0.23 | $0.38 | $0.28 | $0.49 | $0.52 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +28.1% | +18.2% | +30.4% | +36.1% | +19.8% | +9.6% | +18.6% | +11.5% |
| EBITDA | +140.8% | +295.6% | +430.8% | +196.9% | +117.0% | +51.4% | +71.3% | +33.3% |
| Operating income | +198.0% | +520.1% | +>999% | +257.2% | +151.2% | +67.8% | +87.4% | +40.8% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — | +212.9% | +171.8% | +120.6% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | +180.0% | +145.0% | +126.1% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 43.4% | 42.4% | 41.3% | 42.7% | 43.2% | 44.2% | 43.5% | 44.8% |
| EBITDA margin | 14.3% | 19.1% | 19.6% | 25.0% | 25.9% | 26.4% | 28.3% | 29.9% |
| Operating margin | 11.4% | 16.4% | 17.3% | 22.8% | 23.8% | 25.2% | 27.3% | 28.8% |
| Net margin | −85.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 12.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 8.5% | 10.6% | 16.4% | 18.2% | 22.9% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 11.7% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 28 | 34 | 57 | 67 | 80 | 43 | 75 | 49 |
| Capital spending | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Free cash flow | 24 | 31 | 54 | 64 | 77 | 40 | 71 | 46 |
| Stock-based pay | 16 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 8 | 17 | 35 | 50 | 68 | 33 | 63 | 37 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | PGY | PRAA | EZPW | UPST | SLM | LX | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.4bn | $1.3bn | $1.6bn | $1.2bn | $1.8bn | $1.8bn | $1.6bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 14.8% | 17.6% | 28.6% | 46.3% | −6.7% | −7.3% | 10.4% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 143.5% | 16.9% | 16.1% | 31.9% | 1.6% | — | 11.3% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 11.5% | 29.4% | 34.7% | 41.7% | −31.2% | — | 10.6% |
| Gross margin | 43.9% | — | 58.6% | — | — | 34.0% | 58.0% |
| Operating margin | 26.4% | 5.0% | 13.9% | 4.0% | — | — | 11.2% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 16.2% | 20.1% | 11.4% | −14.1% | — | — | 19.8% |
| Net margin | 10.8% | −19.9% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 31.7% | 12.8% | 10.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 17.3% | −2.4% | 11.5% | −22.8% | −21.3% | 27.5% | 22.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 16.3% | −2.8% | 8.7% | −23.2% | −22.3% | 24.8% | 18.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 9.7% | −7.0% | 7.6% | −18.9% | −20.1% | 25.4% | 23.6% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| Change in share count | 17.0% | −2.4% | −0.0% | 15.8% | −9.2% | 4.7% | −0.8% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 14.8% | 10.4% | 17 of 39 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -5.8pp | +0.6pp | 30 of 38 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 26.4% | 13.9% | 5 of 16 |
| Net margin Profitability | 10.8% | 10.5% | 19 of 39 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 2.3% | 1.3% | 26 of 36 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 17.0% | -0.0% | 34 of 38 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Network AI Fees | $1.1B | ▲ 23.5% |
| Financial Service | $130M | ▲ 46.9% |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
| Region | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.3B | ▲ 25.6% |
| Israel | $0 | — |
| KY | $0 | — |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
From Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s 10-K filed March 2, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Capital Management Co LLC | $41.9M | 2.3M | 7.1% | ▲ 1067.5% |
| Millennium Management LLC | $41.7M | 2.3M | 7.1% | ▲ 161.4% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $34.5M | 1.9M | 5.8% | ▲ 11.4% |
| Aquamarine Financial (Cayman) Ltd | $32.3M | 1.8M | 5.5% | New |
| Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC | $30.9M | 1.6M | 5.2% | ▲ 59.9% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $23M | 1.3M | 3.9% | ▼ 26.7% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $20.1M | 1.1M | 3.4% | ▼ 75.3% |
| Hs Investments Iv Ltd | $20M | 1.1M | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $19.1M | 1.0M | 3.2% | New |
| Morgan Stanley | $17.3M | 949K | 2.9% | ▼ 32.3% |
| UBS Group AG | $14.3M | 784K | 2.4% | ▼ 3.7% |
| BNP Paribas Financial Markets | $13.9M | 760K | 2.3% | ▼ 36.6% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 2 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosen Tami Director | October 2, 2026 | Sell | 1,986 | $17.83 | $35,410 |
| Dobres Jonathan Chief Financial Officer | September 28, 2026 | Sell | 590 | $17.04 | $10,054 |
| Das Sanjiv President | September 28, 2026 | Sell | 14,300 | $17.04 | $243,672 |
| Vieira Cory Chief Accounting Officer | September 28, 2026 | Sell | 2,170 | $17.04 | $36,977 |
| Rosen Tami Director | September 18, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 8,504 | $20.38 | $173,312 |
| Dobres Jonathan Chief Financial Officer | September 17, 2026 | Sell | 2,183 | $21.04 | $45,930 |
| Dobres Jonathan Chief Financial Officer | September 12, 2026 | Sell | 582 | $20.21 | $11,762 |
| Das Sanjiv President | September 12, 2026 | Sell | 13,301 | $20.21 | $268,813 |
| Rosen Tami Director | September 12, 2026 | Sell | 7,121 | $20.21 | $143,915 |
| Rosen Tami Director | September 3, 2026 | Sell | 1,265 | $23.07 | $29,184 |
| Vieira Cory Chief Accounting Officer | September 2, 2026 | Sell | 3,075 | $22.71 | $69,833 |
| Das Sanjiv President | August 3, 2026 | Sell | 21,289 | $22.00 | $468,358 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around February 8, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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