Spotify Technology S.a. is a US-listed company in the interactive media & services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$390
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$300–$500 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (10.4%–20.4% a year).
Overvalued
The price is above our entire value range; our base value is 34% below it.
Price used: $594.04, November 2, 2026
Spotify Technology S.a. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $19.4bn, up 14.6% on a year earlier, slower than the 18.4% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to 16.7% from 2.9% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 12.8% from 1.0%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 7 of our 7 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $391 a share, against a share price of $593.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Spotify Technology S.a.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 14.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 16.7%. Where it stands out: long-term debt as % of assets of 0.0% ranks 1 of 32 interactive media & services companies we cover. Where it lags: gross margin of 32.0% ranks 44 of 54 interactive media & services companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$390 per share in the base case (~$300–$500 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 31.4% while net income grew 103.1%: a 72pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The share price implies about 23.4% a year of cash-flow growth for five years.That is faster than the 16.7% a year revenue growth Spotify Technology has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($585.25, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Spotify Technology S.a.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $2.2B, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Spotify Technology S.a. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.08 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$390 ~$300–$500 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$17 ~$73–$220 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x) |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$19 ~$12–$30 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$7.0 ~$6.1–$8.2 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.01x) |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$390 ~$300–$500 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Spotify Technology S.a. with Interactive Media & Services in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $177 | $230 | $300 | $392 | $512 | $668 |
| 8.5% | $142 | $181 | $231 | $297 | $383 | $493 |
| 10% | $121 | $151 | $190 | $240 | $306 | $389 |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
No analyst estimates are published for Spotify Technology S.a.: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $2.84 | $2.48 | −12.7% |
| Jun 2026 | $2.80 | $2.61 | −6.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $2.92 | $3.45 | +18.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $2.84 | $4.43 | +55.8% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
How Spotify Technology S.a.’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
There is not enough price history to measure realised volatility.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Not offered: rated Sell.
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Own 100 shares, sell the $660 call expiring December 18, 2026 (46 days) for $10.50 a share — $1,050 per contract.
Previous session · Bid $10.50, ask $12.15, quoted Mon 2 Nov, 17:36 New York time with SPOT at $592.67. Option prices move with the shares: check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Own the shares, buy the $540 put and sell the $660 call, both expiring December 18, 2026 (46 days).
Offered because the shares trade at or above our fair value of $390: a way to hold on with a floor under the price, paid for by giving up upside the model does not expect. Strikes near 25-delta; the put at its ask and the call at its bid. Protection has a cost over time: research on protective puts finds they have usually lowered returns.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | $3.3B |
| FY17 Q4 | $4.6B |
| FY18 Q4 | $6.2B |
| FY19 Q4 | $7.6B |
| FY20 Q4 | $9B |
| FY21 Q4 | $11.4B |
| FY22 Q4 | $12.4B |
| FY23 Q4 | $14.3B |
| FY24 Q4 | $17B |
| FY25 Q4 | $19.4B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 41.4% |
| FY18 Q4 | 34.5% |
| FY19 Q4 | 21.8% |
| FY20 Q4 | 18.7% |
| FY21 Q4 | 27.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | 8.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | 16.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 18.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 14.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | -11.8% |
| FY17 Q4 | -9.2% |
| FY18 Q4 | -0.8% |
| FY19 Q4 | -1.1% |
| FY20 Q4 | -3.7% |
| FY21 Q4 | 1.0% |
| FY22 Q4 | -5.6% |
| FY23 Q4 | -3.4% |
| FY24 Q4 | 8.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 12.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 2.5% |
| FY17 Q4 | 3.5% |
| FY18 Q4 | 4.2% |
| FY19 Q4 | 6.5% |
| FY20 Q4 | 2.3% |
| FY21 Q4 | 2.9% |
| FY22 Q4 | 0.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | 5.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | 14.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 16.7% |
Each dollar Spotify Technology took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $19.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $13.2B | 68.0% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $6.2B | 32.0% of revenue |
| Research and development | $1.6B | 8.1% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $2.2B | 11.1% of revenue |
| Operating income | $2.5B | 12.8% of revenue |
| Net income | $2.5B | 12.9% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 3.3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 14.3 | 17.0 | 19.4 |
| Gross profit | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| Operating income | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | 0.1 | −0.7 | −0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Net income | −0.6 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Diluted EPS | −$4.02 | −$9.20 | −$0.60 | −$1.15 | −$3.54 | −$1.22 | −$3.09 | −$2.95 | $5.95 | $11.88 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +41.4% | +34.5% | +21.8% | +18.7% | +27.2% | +8.0% | +16.0% | +18.4% | +14.6% |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +68.3% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +103.1% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +99.7% |
| Margins | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | 13.6% | 20.8% | 25.7% | 25.5% | 25.6% | 26.8% | 25.0% | 25.6% | 30.1% | 32.0% |
| Operating margin | −11.8% | −9.2% | −0.8% | −1.1% | −3.7% | 1.0% | −5.6% | −3.4% | 8.7% | 12.8% |
| Net margin | −18.3% | −30.2% | −1.5% | −2.7% | −7.4% | −0.4% | −3.7% | −4.0% | 7.3% | 12.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 5.1% | 14.6% | 16.7% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| Capital spending | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | −0.4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||
| Cash | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 6.2 |
| Total debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −0.8 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −1.2 | −1.4 | −1.7 | −1.4 | −2.1 | −3.4 | −6.2 |
| Diluted shares | 148m | 152m | 181m | 181m | 188m | 194m | 196m | 195m | 207m | 211m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||
| Buybacks | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Total returned | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | SPOT | BIDU | SE | SNAP | PINS | TME | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $19.4bn | $18.0bn | $22.9bn | $6.4bn | $4.7bn | $4.6bn | $615m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 14.6% | −2.9% | 36.4% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 2.4% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 51.2% | — | 12.3% | 16.6% | — | 5.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | — | — | 18.9% | 11.9% | — | 2.4% |
| Gross margin | 32.0% | 43.9% | 44.7% | 57.3% | 79.0% | 44.2% | 60.4% |
| Operating margin | 12.8% | −4.5% | 8.7% | −5.1% | 4.2% | 40.6% | 0.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 1.5% | 7.5% | −42.8% | −13.7% | 4.8% | 22.4% | −0.4% |
| Net margin | 12.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | −4.9% | 3.8% | 33.6% | 3.8% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 17.1% | −2.3% | 21.9% | 14.5% | 28.4% | 31.1% | 11.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 16.7% | −12.7% | 19.7% | 11.1% | 27.0% | 30.2% | 7.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 7.7% | 9.2% | −21.6% | 6.1% | 27.3% | 22.8% | 7.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 16.2% | 23.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% |
| Change in share count | 1.7% | 0.4% | 5.5% | 0.6% | −11.7% | −0.7% | 2.0% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 14.6% | 2.4% | 22 of 63 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -3.8pp | -0.2pp | 47 of 63 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 32.0% | 60.9% | 44 of 54 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 12.8% | 0.3% | 15 of 63 |
| Net margin Profitability | 12.9% | 3.8% | 19 of 63 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 16.7% | 8.9% | 20 of 59 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.4% | 3.9% | 8 of 61 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 0.0% | 16.9% | 1 of 32 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 1.7% | 1.7% | 28 of 55 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 18 days | 49 days | 8 of 54 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $5B | 10.9M | 8.0% | ▼ 4.3% |
| Baillie Gifford & Co | $3.6B | 7.9M | 5.8% | ▼ 3.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.4B | 7.4M | 5.5% | ▼ 11.5% |
| State Street Corp | $2.1B | 4.6M | 3.4% | ▼ 2.0% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $1.7B | 3.6M | 2.7% | ▼ 21.9% |
| Wellington Management Group LLP | $1.4B | 3.1M | 2.3% | ▼ 6.3% |
| WCM Investment Management, LLC | $1.3B | 2.8M | 2.1% | ▲ 17.6% |
| Jennison Associates LLC | $1.3B | 2.8M | 2.1% | ▲ 1.1% |
| Fisher Asset Management, LLC | $1.2B | 2.7M | 2.0% | ▲ 3.3% |
| DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt Am Main | $1.1B | 2.5M | 1.8% | ▲ 57.4% |
| BAMCO Inc | $1.1B | 2.4M | 1.8% | ▲ 84.4% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services Co | $990M | 2.1M | 1.6% | ▲ 3.5% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Spotify Technology S.a.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 4 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,517 | $533.97 | $810,038 |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,610 | $533.03 | $1.4M |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,850 | $532.14 | $984,464 |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,666 | $531.03 | $884,688 |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,818 | $530.21 | $963,926 |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 6,282 | $529.11 | $3.3M |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 4,081 | $527.95 | $2.2M |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,086 | $527.05 | $572,381 |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | September 14, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,230 | $541.72 | $1.2M |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | September 14, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,259 | $540.69 | $680,729 |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | September 14, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 154 | $539.92 | $83,148 |
| Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer | September 14, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 39 | $537.19 | $20,950 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 1 member of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 3 sales of Spotify Technology S.a. shares.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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