Tencent Music Entertainment Group is a US-listed company in the interactive media & services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$21
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$16–$28 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (4.4%–14.4% a year).
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 136% above it.
Price used: $8.98, November 3, 2026
Tencent Music Entertainment Group valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $4.58bn, up 16.0% on a year earlier, faster than the 0.6% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to 30.2% from 16.3% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 40.6% from 12.2%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B+. It passes 3 of our 3 financial-health checks.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 16.0% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 30.2%. Where it stands out: operating margin of 40.6% ranks 1 of 63 interactive media & services companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$21 per share in the base case (~$16–$28 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 0.2% while net income grew 66.6%: a 67pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for TME from the sources we follow. See filings →
The share price implies cash flow shrinking about 6.2% a year for five years.That is slower than the 1.6% a year revenue growth Tencent Music Entertainment Group has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($8.98, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Tencent Music Entertainment Group's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $1.3B, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Tencent Music Entertainment Group as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.08 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$21 ~$16–$28 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$1.4 ~$6.1–$19 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.15x) |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$7.2 ~$4.9–$11 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$7.2 ~$6.3–$8.5 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$14 ~$7.2–$21 | 3 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Tencent Music Entertainment Group with Interactive Media & Services in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $12 | $17 | $22 | $30 | $39 | $52 |
| 8.5% | $10 | $13 | $17 | $22 | $29 | $38 |
| 10% | $8 | $10 | $13 | $17 | $23 | $29 |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 17, 2026, before the open.
No analyst estimates are published for Tencent Music Entertainment Group: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.62 | $1.70 | +4.9% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.43 | $1.46 | +1.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.59 | $1.60 | +0.4% |
| Sept 2025 | $1.52 | $1.54 | +1.5% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
How Tencent Music Entertainment Group’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: no liquid put with an effective price at or below fair value.
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | $657M |
| FY17 Q4 | $1.6B |
| FY18 Q4 | $2.9B |
| FY19 Q4 | $3.7B |
| FY20 Q4 | $4.2B |
| FY21 Q4 | $4.8B |
| FY22 Q4 | $4.2B |
| FY23 Q4 | $3.9B |
| FY24 Q4 | $3.9B |
| FY25 Q4 | $4.6B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 147.4% |
| FY18 Q4 | 77.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 28.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 14.7% |
| FY21 Q4 | 14.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | -12.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | -7.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | 0.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 16.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 2.4% |
| FY17 Q4 | 14.5% |
| FY18 Q4 | 10.7% |
| FY19 Q4 | 18.2% |
| FY20 Q4 | 16.2% |
| FY21 Q4 | 12.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | 15.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 21.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 30.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 40.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 19.1% |
| FY17 Q4 | 22.1% |
| FY18 Q4 | 29.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 24.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 16.4% |
| FY21 Q4 | 16.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | 26.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 25.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 35.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | 30.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 657 | 1,626 | 2,877 | 3,683 | 4,226 | 4,844 | 4,220 | 3,922 | 3,947 | 4,578 |
| Gross profit | 186 | 564 | 1,103 | 1,256 | 1,348 | 1,458 | 1,306 | 1,384 | 1,671 | 2,023 |
| Operating income | 16 | 236 | 309 | 669 | 683 | 589 | 662 | 856 | 1,211 | 1,860 |
| Net income | 12 | 196 | 278 | 577 | 602 | 470 | 548 | 695 | 923 | 1,538 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +147.4% | +77.0% | +28.0% | +14.7% | +14.6% | −12.9% | −7.1% | +0.6% | +16.0% |
| Operating income | — | +>999% | +31.0% | +116.6% | +2.0% | −13.7% | +12.3% | +29.4% | +41.4% | +53.6% |
| Net income | — | — | +41.5% | +107.6% | +4.4% | −22.0% | +16.6% | +27.0% | +32.8% | +66.6% |
| Margins | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | 28.3% | 34.7% | 38.3% | 34.1% | 31.9% | 30.1% | 31.0% | 35.3% | 42.3% | 44.2% |
| Operating margin | 2.4% | 14.5% | 10.7% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 12.2% | 15.7% | 21.8% | 30.7% | 40.6% |
| Net margin | 1.9% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 17.7% | 23.4% | 33.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 19.1% | 22.1% | 29.0% | 24.0% | 16.4% | 16.3% | 26.1% | 25.8% | 35.1% | 30.2% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 132 | 370 | 853 | 898 | 708 | 812 | 1,114 | 1,037 | 1,428 | 1,424 |
| Capital spending | 6 | 11 | 20 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 13 | 23 | 44 | 42 |
| Free cash flow | 125 | 359 | 833 | 884 | 692 | 788 | 1,101 | 1,014 | 1,384 | 1,381 |
| Stock-based pay | 26 | 54 | 74 | 75 | 82 | 100 | 99 | 92 | 83 | 93 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 100 | 305 | 760 | 809 | 610 | 687 | 1,002 | 922 | 1,301 | 1,288 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||
| Cash | 442 | 795 | 2,524 | 2,216 | 1,705 | 1,034 | 1,385 | 1,911 | 1,803 | 1,211 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 793 | 794 | 803 | 794 | — | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −442 | −795 | −2,524 | −2,216 | −912 | −240 | −583 | −1,117 | −1,803 | −1,211 |
| Diluted shares | 950m | 1,320m | 1,580m | 1,674m | 1,680m | 1,682m | 1,617m | 1,584m | 1,565m | 1,554m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||
| Buybacks | — | — | — | — | 19 | 539 | 466 | 177 | 268 | 54 |
| Total returned | — | — | — | — | 19 | 539 | 466 | 177 | 268 | 54 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | TME | PINS | BILI | MTCH | SNAP | RDDT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.6bn | $4.7bn | $4.2bn | $3.5bn | $6.4bn | $3.1bn | $615m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 16.0% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 0.5% | 12.6% | 62.2% | 2.4% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 16.6% | — | 2.0% | 12.3% | — | 5.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 11.9% | — | −2.5% | 18.9% | 53.0% | 2.4% |
| Gross margin | 44.2% | 79.0% | 36.6% | 75.8% | 57.3% | 91.5% | 60.4% |
| Operating margin | 40.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 29.7% | −5.1% | 29.4% | 0.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 22.4% | 4.8% | −12.8% | 25.9% | −13.7% | −3.7% | −0.4% |
| Net margin | 33.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 20.7% | −4.9% | 32.1% | 3.8% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 31.1% | 28.4% | 23.6% | 34.7% | 14.5% | 39.0% | 11.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 30.2% | 27.0% | 21.9% | 32.7% | 11.1% | 38.8% | 7.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 22.8% | 27.3% | 5.4% | 28.7% | 6.1% | 25.0% | 7.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 2.0% | 23.0% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% |
| Change in share count | −0.7% | −11.7% | 38.7% | −6.9% | 0.6% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 16.0% | 2.4% | 19 of 63 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +15.3pp | -0.2pp | 9 of 63 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 44.2% | 60.9% | 36 of 54 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 40.6% | 0.3% | 1 of 63 |
| Net margin Profitability | 33.6% | 3.8% | 5 of 63 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 30.2% | 8.9% | 8 of 59 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 2.0% | 3.9% | 14 of 61 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.7% | 1.7% | 21 of 55 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schroder Investment Management Group | $381M | 45.6M | 10.5% | ▼ 40.6% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $274M | 32.8M | 7.6% | ▲ 3.8% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $244M | 29.3M | 6.8% | ▲ 30.7% |
| Krane Funds Advisors LLC | $188M | 22.5M | 5.2% | ▲ 26.1% |
| Overlook Investments LP | $159M | 19.0M | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Arga Investment Management, LP | $152M | 18.2M | 4.2% | New |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $134M | 16.1M | 3.7% | ▲ 2.6% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $105M | 12.5M | 2.9% | ▼ 31.6% |
| Morgan Stanley | $93.3M | 11.2M | 2.6% | ▲ 37.7% |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $86.2M | 10.3M | 2.4% | ▲ 57.1% |
| State Street Corp | $78M | 9.3M | 2.2% | ▼ 2.4% |
| Baillie Gifford & Co | $72.1M | 8.6M | 2.0% | ▼ 11.3% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Tencent Music Entertainment Group's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Tencent Music Entertainment Group disclosed in the last 12 months; 2 earlier trades on record.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
New research on the companies we cover arrives in the weekly email. Free, one email a week.
