undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Cynthia Axne

Backtest from 11 Oct 2021 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+9.1%
S&P 500 +13.1%
Last 12 months
+7.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.38
S&P 500 0.59
Biggest drop
−19.3%
S&P 500 −23.9%
$10.0k$20.0k 202120222023202420252026 $18.6k$15.5k
Cynthia AxneS&P 500 $10,000 in Cynthia Axne from 11 Oct 2021 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Cynthia Axne (Democrat, IA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Cynthia Axne's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+9.1%+13.1%
Total return+55%+86%
Last 12 months+7.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months+1.6%—
Last month+7.3%—
This year so far+5.0%—
Volatility a year15.1%16.2%
Sharpe ratio0.380.59
Biggest drop−19.3%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.801.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−1.8% (−0.51)—
Share of weeks up54%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 173 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
V7.6%11 Oct 2021+96.4%
GOOGL7.3%11 Oct 2021+105.9%
ACGL7.2%11 Oct 2021+187.5%
MA7.0%11 Oct 2021+95.5%
PGR7.0%11 Oct 2021+185.4%
AMZN6.7%11 Oct 2021+53.3%
ORLY5.4%11 Oct 2021+124.2%
BRK.B5.2%11 Oct 2021+97.8%
BAC4.8%11 Oct 2021+29.1%
CHD4.5%11 Oct 2021+41.3%
AZO4.3%11 Oct 2021+93.9%
SBUX4.2%11 Oct 2021+5.5%
MCO3.8%11 Oct 2021+47.0%
CL3.6%11 Oct 2021+45.6%
KEYS3.4%11 Oct 2021+86.4%
SYK3.4%11 Oct 2021+24.5%
POST3.2%11 Oct 2021+25.2%
WSO3.2%11 Oct 2021+33.1%
GPN2.9%8 Dec 2021−20.3%
TSCO2.2%11 Oct 2021−1.1%
BF.B1.3%11 Oct 2021−50.2%
NKE1.0%11 Oct 2021−71.3%
UNH0.8%11 Oct 2021+7.4%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest11 Oct 2021 to 2 Nov 2026+9.1%+13.1%0.380.59−19.3%0.80−1.8% (−0.51)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+11.2%+21.8%0.551.16−10.1%0.66−3.8% (−0.76)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+7.1%+14.2%0.300.84−9.5%0.61−2.4% (−0.23)
DateCompanyAction
8 Mar 2022PYPLBought
8 Dec 2021GPNBought
11 Oct 2021WSOBought
11 Oct 2021WFCBought
11 Oct 2021VBought
11 Oct 2021UNHBought
11 Oct 2021TSCOBought
11 Oct 2021SYKBought
11 Oct 2021SBUXBought
11 Oct 2021POSTBought
11 Oct 2021PGRBought
11 Oct 2021ORLYBought
11 Oct 2021NKEBought
11 Oct 2021MKLBought
11 Oct 2021MCOBought
11 Oct 2021MABought
11 Oct 2021LMTBought
11 Oct 2021KEYSBought
11 Oct 2021JPMBought
11 Oct 2021JNJBought
11 Oct 2021JEFBought
11 Oct 2021GOOGLBought
11 Oct 2021CLBought
11 Oct 2021CHDBought
11 Oct 2021BRK.BBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
3 Jan 2023JEFSold
16 Nov 2022PYPLSold
16 Nov 2022LMTSold
6 Jun 2022JPMSold
6 Jun 2022JNJSold
17 May 2022WFCSold
8 Dec 2021MKLSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest