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Congress: members

K. Michael Conaway

Backtest from 5 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+14.4%
S&P 500 +13.7%
Last 12 months
+22.3%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.79
S&P 500 0.73
Biggest drop
−31.0%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $48.9k$45.5k
K. Michael ConawayS&P 500 $10,000 in K. Michael Conaway from 5 Jan 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. K. Michael Conaway (Independent, TX) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

K. Michael Conaway's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+14.4%+13.7%
Total return+389%+355%
Last 12 months+22.3%+12.1%
Last 3 months+5.2%—
Last month+2.2%—
This year so far+21.5%—
Volatility a year15.8%16.5%
Sharpe ratio0.790.73
Biggest drop−31.0%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.891.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+1.8% (1.05)—
Share of weeks up60%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 624 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
AAPL23.6%5 Mar 2018+712.8%
MPC13.6%5 May 2020+1589.8%
AMZN9.8%5 May 2020+114.7%
JNJ9.1%10 Jun 2020+116.6%
DRI7.8%5 May 2020+291.6%
GOOGL7.1%7 May 2019+385.3%
AEP3.2%5 May 2020+97.5%
EMR3.2%27 Apr 2015+286.3%
DUK3.2%5 May 2020+99.3%
ABT3.1%6 Oct 2020+16.7%
GE2.3%5 Oct 2018+417.4%
SO1.8%5 May 2020+117.7%
PG1.3%10 Jun 2020+62.5%
T1.2%3 Apr 2019+51.8%
PFE1.1%4 Jan 2019+9.6%
VZ1.0%4 Jan 2019+25.2%
MSFT1.0%5 Mar 2019+396.0%
ZTS0.9%5 Feb 2018+21.5%
MLM0.8%4 Mar 2015+324.6%
LUV0.8%16 Dec 2020+4.5%
SYK0.8%5 Mar 2018+106.7%
ADBE0.7%4 Mar 2015+227.1%
AAL0.6%16 Dec 2020−22.3%
ADM0.4%4 Jun 2015+105.7%
IVZ0.4%3 Mar 2016+55.4%
ADP0.4%5 Feb 2018+218.4%
AKAM0.2%4 Mar 2015+23.4%
ILMN0.2%4 Mar 2015+22.2%
HAL0.2%3 Aug 2015+8.3%
PEP0.2%5 Feb 2018+61.5%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest5 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026+14.4%+13.7%0.790.73−31.0%0.89+1.8% (1.05)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+14.4%+13.9%0.710.66−31.0%0.89+1.5% (0.79)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+21.5%+21.8%1.301.16−13.9%0.70+4.4% (1.05)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+23.9%+14.2%1.780.84−5.1%0.48+13.0% (1.56)
DateCompanyAction
16 Dec 2020LUVBought
16 Dec 2020AALBought
6 Oct 2020ABTBought
13 Jul 2020USBBought
13 Jul 2020PNCBought
10 Jun 2020PGBought
10 Jun 2020JNJBought
10 Jun 2020BXBought
5 May 2020SOBought
5 May 2020MPCBought
5 May 2020DUKBought
5 May 2020DRIBought
5 May 2020CVXBought
5 May 2020AMZNBought
5 May 2020AEPBought
7 May 2019GOOGLBought
3 Apr 2019XOMBought
3 Apr 2019TBought
5 Mar 2019WMTBought
5 Mar 2019MSFTBought
4 Jan 2019VZBought
4 Jan 2019PFEBought
4 Jan 2019AEPBought
6 Dec 2018SPGBought
6 Dec 2018JPMBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
7 Dec 2020CVXSold
7 Dec 2020BXSold
6 Oct 2020JPMSold
6 Oct 2020INTUSold
9 Sept 2020VSold
9 Sept 2020USBSold
9 Sept 2020PNCSold
8 Sept 2020HDSold
13 Jul 2020TJXSold
10 Jun 2020BDXSold
7 Apr 2020TRVSold
7 Apr 2020NOCSold
7 Apr 2020DISSold
7 Apr 2020AEPSold
13 Nov 2019XOMSold
13 Nov 2019PNCSold
13 Nov 2019NEESold
13 Nov 2019JNJSold
13 Nov 2019ACNSold
9 Oct 2019AMZNSold
18 Sept 2019WMTSold
18 Sept 2019WMSold
6 Aug 2019SPGSold
4 Jan 2019TSold
4 Jan 2019BNSSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest