undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Raúl M. Grijalva

Backtest from 6 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+2.5%
S&P 500 +13.8%
Last 12 months
+3.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.07
S&P 500 0.73
Biggest drop
−17.6%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $45.9k$13.3k
Raúl M. GrijalvaS&P 500 $10,000 in Raúl M. Grijalva from 6 Jan 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva (Democrat, AZ) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Raúl M. Grijalva's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+2.5%+13.8%
Total return+33%+359%
Last 12 months+3.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months+1.1%—
Last month+0.3%—
This year so far+3.3%—
Volatility a year6.4%16.5%
Sharpe ratio0.070.73
Biggest drop−17.6%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.101.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−0.8% (−0.46)—
Share of weeks up80%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 75 reported trades were copied.

Insights

No positions at the latest rebalance.

PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest6 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026+2.5%+13.8%0.070.73−17.6%0.10−0.8% (−0.46)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+2.2%+13.9%−0.480.66−4.6%0.00−0.6% (−1.45)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+4.6%+21.8%−0.791.160.0%0.00−0.1% (−1.39)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+3.9%+14.2%−1.150.840.0%0.00−0.1% (−1.00)
DateCompanyAction
16 Dec 2021CBOEBought
15 Jul 2016WFCBought
15 Jul 2016MABought
15 Jul 2016JPMBought
10 Jun 2016IBMBought
5 May 2016TXTBought
5 May 2016LYBBought
4 Mar 2016WYBought
4 Mar 2016ULBought
9 Feb 2016AAPLBought
5 Jan 2016KSSBought
3 Nov 2015FDXBought
6 Oct 2015MSFTBought
6 Oct 2015BABought
4 Sept 2015HONBought
14 Aug 2015SBUXBought
14 Aug 2015PYPLBought
14 Aug 2015BAXBought
11 Jun 2015LLYBought
11 Jun 2015HDBought
11 Jun 2015GPCBought
11 Jun 2015AXPBought
15 May 2015OPYBought
15 May 2015GDBought
3 Mar 2015DISBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
21 Dec 2021CBOESold
29 Sept 2016WYSold
29 Sept 2016WFCSold
29 Sept 2016ULSold
29 Sept 2016TXTSold
29 Sept 2016SBUXSold
29 Sept 2016MSFTSold
29 Sept 2016MCHPSold
29 Sept 2016MASold
29 Sept 2016LYBSold
29 Sept 2016LLYSold
29 Sept 2016JPMSold
29 Sept 2016IBMSold
29 Sept 2016HONSold
29 Sept 2016AAPLSold
15 Jul 2016OPYSold
5 May 2016KSSSold
4 Mar 2016DISSold
4 Mar 2016BASold
9 Feb 2016FDXSold
3 Nov 2015BAXSold
6 Oct 2015PYPLSold
6 Oct 2015AXPSold
14 Aug 2015HDSold
14 Aug 2015GPCSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest