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Quiver method A (replicated)

Insider buying: Stake increase, all $300m+

Backtest from 30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+8.3%
S&P 500 +13.8%
Last 12 months
+5.6%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.36
S&P 500 0.79
Biggest drop
−55.9%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k$80.0k 201020122014201620182020202220242026 $85.2k$37.4k
StrategyS&P 500 $10,000 in Insider buying: Stake increase, all $300m+ from 30 Apr 2010 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes.

About

Each month, buys the companies whose insiders (officers, directors, large holders) made the largest open-market purchases, by the rule in the label, using only Form 4 filings already public at the rebalance. Costs of 10 basis points a trade are deducted.

Insider backtests →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+8.3%+13.8%
Total return+274%+752%
Last 12 months+5.6%+12.1%
Last 3 months−6.0%—
Last month+6.3%—
This year so far−3.5%—
Volatility a year28.6%16.1%
Sharpe ratio0.360.79
Biggest drop−55.9%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.251.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−5.4% (−1.06)—
Share of weeks up53%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
AMRZ10.0%——
AVBC10.0%——
CBU10.0%——
CODI10.0%——
COO10.0%——
FUL10.0%——
HOG10.0%——
PFE10.0%——
TNC10.0%——
XRN10.0%——

Equal weight at the latest rebalance, rebuilt every month.

PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026+8.3%+13.8%0.360.79−55.9%1.25−5.4% (−1.06)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+7.0%+13.9%0.280.66−55.9%1.29−5.6% (−0.67)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+20.1%+21.8%0.571.16−25.8%1.07+1.6% (0.09)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+9.1%+14.2%0.320.84−17.7%0.84−1.1% (−0.05)
DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026TNCBought
30 Oct 2026FULBought
30 Oct 2026COOBought
30 Oct 2026CBUBought
30 Oct 2026AVBCBought
30 Sept 2026PFEBought
30 Sept 2026MTDRBought
30 Sept 2026HOGBought
30 Sept 2026FRSTBought
30 Sept 2026CODIBought
30 Sept 2026ASNDBought
30 Sept 2026AMRZBought
31 Aug 2026XRNBought
31 Aug 2026VITLBought
31 Aug 2026OTFBought
31 Aug 2026NCLHBought
31 Aug 2026MMSIBought
31 Aug 2026HNRGBought
31 Aug 2026GLPBought
31 Aug 2026GEHCBought
31 Aug 2026BETRBought
31 Aug 2026AVOBought

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026MTDRSold
30 Oct 2026HNRGSold
30 Oct 2026FRSTSold
30 Oct 2026AVOSold
30 Oct 2026ASNDSold
30 Sept 2026VITLSold
30 Sept 2026OTFSold
30 Sept 2026NCLHSold
30 Sept 2026MMSISold
30 Sept 2026GLPSold
30 Sept 2026GEHCSold
30 Sept 2026BETRSold

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest