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Quiver method A (replicated)

Insider buying: Stake increase, 500 largest

Backtest from 30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+7.7%
S&P 500 +13.8%
Last 12 months
+7.3%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.38
S&P 500 0.79
Biggest drop
−50.2%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k$80.0k 201020122014201620182020202220242026 $85.2k$34.2k
StrategyS&P 500 $10,000 in Insider buying: Stake increase, 500 largest from 30 Apr 2010 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes.

About

Each month, buys the companies whose insiders (officers, directors, large holders) made the largest open-market purchases, by the rule in the label, using only Form 4 filings already public at the rebalance. Costs of 10 basis points a trade are deducted.

Insider backtests →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+7.7%+13.8%
Total return+242%+752%
Last 12 months+7.3%+12.1%
Last 3 months+0.1%—
Last month+6.8%—
This year so far+1.6%—
Volatility a year22.1%16.1%
Sharpe ratio0.380.79
Biggest drop−50.2%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.131.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−6.0% (−1.93)—
Share of weeks up54%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
AME10.0%——
AMRZ10.0%——
ATO10.0%——
CW10.0%——
IR10.0%——
NVR10.0%——
PFE10.0%——
RBA10.0%——
TM10.0%——
TSCO10.0%——

Equal weight at the latest rebalance, rebuilt every month.

PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026+7.7%+13.8%0.380.79−50.2%1.13−6.0% (−1.93)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+7.2%+13.9%0.290.66−50.2%1.11−5.9% (−1.21)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+19.9%+21.8%0.851.16−18.0%0.73+3.4% (0.39)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+7.2%+14.2%0.250.84−12.0%0.62−1.5% (−0.09)
DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026TSCOBought
30 Oct 2026TMBought
30 Oct 2026RBABought
30 Oct 2026NVRBought
30 Oct 2026IRBought
30 Oct 2026CWBought
30 Oct 2026ATOBought
30 Oct 2026AMEBought
30 Sept 2026TTBought
30 Sept 2026PFEBought
30 Sept 2026HBANBought
30 Sept 2026CTSHBought
30 Sept 2026AMRZBought
31 Aug 2026SPGIBought
31 Aug 2026SBSWBought
31 Aug 2026MELIBought
31 Aug 2026LBought
31 Aug 2026GFIBought
31 Aug 2026GEHCBought
31 Aug 2026FISVBought
31 Aug 2026ECLBought
31 Aug 2026BSXBought
31 Aug 2026BROBought

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026TTSold
30 Oct 2026SBSWSold
30 Oct 2026HBANSold
30 Oct 2026GFISold
30 Oct 2026FISVSold
30 Oct 2026ECLSold
30 Oct 2026CTSHSold
30 Oct 2026BROSold
30 Sept 2026SPGISold
30 Sept 2026MELISold
30 Sept 2026LSold
30 Sept 2026GEHCSold
30 Sept 2026BSXSold

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest