Toyota Motor Corp/ is a US-listed company in the automobile manufacturers industry. Its financial year ends in March.
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~$230
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$230–$230. Weighted average of 2 models (residual income, justified price-to-book).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: consolidated figures include Toyota Financial Services, a finance arm whose borrowing funds customer loans, so a single cash-flow value of the group is not meaningful; not rated until we value the parts separately.
Toyota Motor Corp/ valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $336.8bn, up 6.8% on a year earlier, faster than the 1.0% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin held at 6.1%. Operating margin narrowed to 7.4% from 9.5%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B+. It passes 2 of our 7 financial-health checks. Our valuation models combined value is $235 a share, against a share price of $196.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Toyota Motor Corp/'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 6.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 6.1%. Where it stands out: net margin of 7.6% ranks 2 of 23 automobile manufacturers companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 115.6% while net income fell 18.3%: a 134pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Toyota Motor Corp/ as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.23 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: fewer than 5 peers with a usable multiple |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$230 ~$160–$340 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$230 ~$200–$270 | Included |
| Price-to-sales vs peers Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative. | — | Does not apply: earnings are positive: price-to-earnings is the better measure |
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow after stock pay, grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%. | — | Does not apply: The finance arm and operating business require separate valuations; consolidated financing debt is not industrial debt. |
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: The finance arm and operating business require separate valuations; consolidated financing debt is not industrial debt. |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: The finance arm and operating business require separate valuations; consolidated financing debt is not industrial debt. |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (price-to-earnings vs peers) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$230 ~$230–$230 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Toyota Motor Corp/ with Automobile Manufacturers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 5, 2026, before the open.
No analyst estimates are published for Toyota Motor Corp/: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $3.94 | $7.66 | +94.6% |
| Mar 2026 | $2.69 | $4.00 | +49.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $3.18 | $6.15 | +93.1% |
| Sept 2025 | $5.36 | $4.66 | −13.1% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | $274.8B |
| FY21 Q4 | $256.6B |
| FY22 Q4 | $279.6B |
| FY23 Q4 | $274.9B |
| FY24 Q4 | $312.5B |
| FY25 Q4 | $315.5B |
| FY26 Q4 | $336.8B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY21 Q4 | -6.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | 9.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | -1.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 13.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 1.0% |
| FY26 Q4 | 6.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 8.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 8.1% |
| FY22 Q4 | 9.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | 7.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | 11.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 10.0% |
| FY26 Q4 | 7.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 2.7% |
| FY21 Q4 | 4.0% |
| FY22 Q4 | 6.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 2.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 4.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 3.0% |
| FY26 Q4 | 6.1% |
Each dollar Toyota Motor Corp/ took in during FY2026, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $337B | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $8.3B | 2.5% of revenue |
| Research and development | $10.4B | 3.1% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $301B | 89.5% of revenue |
| Operating income | $25B | 7.4% of revenue |
| Income tax | $7.8B | 2.3% of revenue |
| Net income | $25.6B | 7.6% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2010 Mar 2010 | 2011 Mar 2011 | 2012 Mar 2012 | 2013 Mar 2013 | 2014 Mar 2014 | 2015 Mar 2015 | 2016 Mar 2016 | 2017 Mar 2017 | 2018 Mar 2018 | 2019 Mar 2019 | 2020 Mar 2020 | 2021 Mar 2021 | 2022 Mar 2022 | 2023 Mar 2023 | 2024 Mar 2024 | 2025 Mar 2025 | 2026 Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 204.1 | 222.0 | 235.5 | 267.1 | 256.7 | 249.4 | 236.8 | 255.5 | 265.3 | 272.7 | 274.8 | 256.6 | 279.6 | 274.9 | 312.5 | 315.5 | 336.8 |
| Gross profit | 32.1 | 35.2 | 35.3 | 49.1 | 57.0 | 57.8 | 57.9 | 56.1 | 61.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | 16.8 | 19.2 | 18.0 | 29.4 | 35.4 | 38.1 | 37.4 | 33.4 | 37.3 | 38.4 | 36.7 | 36.2 | 42.9 | 35.3 | 51.6 | 46.3 | 40.9 |
| Operating income | 1.6 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 16.0 | 22.9 | 25.2 | 23.8 | 18.5 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 22.1 | 20.7 | 26.7 | 20.2 | 37.1 | 31.5 | 25.0 |
| Net income | 2.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 11.6 | 18.2 | 19.9 | 19.3 | 17.0 | 22.5 | 17.0 | 18.7 | 21.2 | 25.4 | 18.1 | 34.3 | 31.3 | 25.6 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.44 | $3.04 | $2.29 | $7.36 | $11.49 | $12.59 | $12.26 | $11.10 | $15.04 | $11.64 | $13.25 | $14.98 | $18.28 | $13.28 | $25.36 | $23.62 | $19.62 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | −0.4% | +8.8% | +6.0% | +13.5% | −3.9% | −2.9% | −5.0% | +7.9% | +3.8% | +2.8% | +0.8% | −6.6% | +9.0% | −1.7% | +13.7% | +1.0% | +6.8% |
| EBITDA | +63.0% | +14.2% | −6.1% | +62.9% | +20.5% | +7.6% | −1.9% | −10.6% | +11.8% | +3.0% | −4.4% | −1.4% | +18.5% | −17.9% | +46.3% | −10.2% | −11.6% |
| Operating income | — | — | −17.7% | — | +43.2% | +10.0% | −5.5% | −22.4% | +17.3% | +2.7% | −0.8% | −6.1% | +28.8% | −24.5% | +84.0% | −15.1% | −20.5% |
| Net income | — | — | −24.7% | — | +56.4% | +9.2% | −3.1% | −12.1% | +32.8% | −24.6% | +10.3% | +13.0% | +20.0% | −28.6% | +89.0% | −8.7% | −18.3% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −24.9% | — | +56.2% | +9.6% | −2.6% | −9.5% | +35.5% | −22.6% | +13.8% | +13.1% | +22.0% | −27.4% | +91.0% | −6.9% | −16.9% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 15.7% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 18.4% | 22.2% | 23.2% | 24.5% | 21.9% | 23.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA margin | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 0.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 10.3% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 27.6 | 23.7 | 18.4 | 29.7 | 36.4 | 33.7 | 37.2 | 33.0 | 38.1 | 34.0 | 22.1 | 25.7 | 33.2 | 21.9 | 29.1 | 24.3 | 36.4 |
| Capital spending | 6.5 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 13.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | 21.0 | 16.3 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 26.7 | 23.3 | 26.5 | 21.7 | 26.5 | 20.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock-based pay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 21.0 | 16.3 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 26.7 | 23.3 | 26.5 | 21.7 | 26.5 | 20.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 20.0 | 25.1 | 20.4 | 18.2 | 19.8 | 19.0 | 26.1 | 26.9 | 28.7 | 32.3 | 38.1 | 46.1 | 50.3 | 56.6 | 62.2 | 59.9 | 79.6 |
| Total debt | 134.0 | 149.8 | 145.7 | 150.1 | 158.5 | 158.2 | 162.7 | 171.9 | 182.2 | 182.1 | 198.5 | 232.0 | 218.2 | 221.3 | 241.8 | 258.8 | 271.6 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | 114.0 | 124.7 | 125.3 | 131.8 | 138.7 | 139.2 | 136.6 | 145.1 | 153.4 | 149.8 | 160.4 | 185.9 | 167.8 | 164.7 | 179.5 | 198.9 | 192.0 |
| Diluted shares | 1,568m | 1,568m | 1,572m | 1,584m | 1,585m | 1,580m | 1,572m | 1,528m | 1,497m | 1,459m | 1,399m | 1,398m | 1,389m | 1,366m | 1,351m | 1,325m | 1,303m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | TM | F | GM | STLA | HMC | TSLA | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $336.8bn | $187.0bn | $187.0bn | $173.6bn | $144.8bn | $103.6bn | $6.5bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 6.8% | −1.4% | −0.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 8.3% | 1.7% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 2.4% | 2.8% | — | — | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | −2.0% | 2.9% | — | — | −0.2% | −2.0% |
| Gross margin | — | 8.4% | 18.3% | −1.4% | 16.5% | 19.3% | 13.3% |
| Operating margin | 7.4% | −3.8% | 2.3% | −17.1% | −1.9% | 3.3% | −16.2% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 0.0% | 4.4% | — | 3.2% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Net margin | 7.6% | −4.2% | 2.1% | −14.5% | −1.9% | 3.1% | −14.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 10.8% | 8.0% | 12.5% | −3.0% | 5.2% | 18.1% | 3.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 6.1% | 2.8% | 7.7% | — | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 4.2% | 6.7% | — | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | — | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Change in share count | −1.7% | −0.3% | −8.6% | −3.0% | −14.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 6.8% | 1.7% | 10 of 23 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +5.8pp | -2.1pp | 6 of 23 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 7.4% | -16.0% | 2 of 22 |
| Net margin Profitability | 7.6% | -14.5% | 2 of 23 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 6.1% | 2.4% | 5 of 22 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 24.3% | 16.3% | 13 of 18 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -1.7% | 0.5% | 5 of 21 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 26 days | 34 days | 7 of 16 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fisher Asset Management, LLC | $1.2B | 7.2M | 27.9% | ▲ 1.9% |
| Morgan Stanley | $414M | 2.5M | 9.5% | ▲ 0.9% |
| FMR LLC | $233M | 1.4M | 5.4% | ▲ 33.8% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $189M | 1.1M | 4.3% | ▼ 8.4% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $172M | 1.0M | 4.0% | ▼ 5.1% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $135M | 801K | 3.1% | ▼ 18.2% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $115M | 683K | 2.6% | ▼ 26.3% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $95.8M | 569K | 2.2% | ▲ 18.6% |
| Stifel Financial Corp | $83.2M | 494K | 1.9% | ▲ 8.6% |
| Captrust Financial Advisors | $73.6M | 437K | 1.7% | ▲ 0.3% |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $69.8M | 414K | 1.6% | ▲ 2630.9% |
| Cullen Capital Management, LLC | $65.9M | 391K | 1.5% | ▲ 25.2% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Toyota Motor Corp/'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 8 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kon Kenta President | August 5, 2026 | Buy | 85,000 | $18.41 | $1.6M |
| Sato Koji Vice Chairman | June 17, 2026 | Sell | 88,600 | $17.83 | $1.6M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Toyota Motor Corp/ disclosed in the last 12 months; 16 earlier trades on record.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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