undamentalytics Newsletter

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 28.5% a year; our model expects 2.0%. That gap is wide enough for a short position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 28.5% a year; our model expects 2.0%.

Market more optimistic than our model: short this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position2814 long, 14 short, since March 31, 2013
Beat the S&P 50017 of 2860.7% of quarters held
Strategy against the index+1338.0%cumulative; worst fall -43.8%
$10,000 became$823,259S&P 500 bought and held: $61,176

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

-11%3%17%31%45% 2013201520172019202120232025 $1.1$4.6$8.1$11.7 Short from 2013-03-31Short from 2013-06-30Short from 2013-09-30Short from 2013-12-31Short from 2014-03-31Short from 2014-06-30Long from 2015-12-31Long from 2016-03-31Long from 2016-09-30Long from 2016-12-31Long from 2017-03-31Long from 2018-03-31Long from 2018-12-31Long from 2019-03-31Long from 2019-06-30Long from 2020-03-31Long from 2020-06-30Long from 2021-12-31Short from 2022-03-31Short from 2022-06-30Short from 2022-09-30Short from 2023-06-30Short from 2023-09-30Short from 2023-12-31Long from 2025-06-30Long from 2025-09-30Short from 2026-03-31Short from 2026-06-30Short from 2026-09-30
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$250k$500k$750k 2013201520172019202120232025 $823k$61.2k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into CVGI in long quarters and adds a short of CVGI in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 28 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 17, by +14.4% a quarter on average. That stands out clearly from chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 14 57.1% +20.9% +4.9% +76.6% 1.85 Some evidence
Shorts 14 64.3% +7.9% +16.4% +21.3% 1.22 No reliable evidence
All positions 28 60.7% +14.4% +12.1% +46.4% 2.21 Strong evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (55)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionCVGIS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $2.93 28.5% 2.0% Short +9.9% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $4.62 21.7% 2.0% Short −36.6% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $3.41 20.1% 4.0% Short +35.5% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $1.44 -4.3% 4.0% No position +136.8% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $1.70 -11.2% 4.0% Long −15.3% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $1.66 -8.1% 4.0% Long +2.4% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $1.15 -2.8% 4.0% No position +44.4% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $2.48 -3.8% 2.0% No position −53.6% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $3.25 -3.4% 2.0% No position −23.7% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $4.90 7.8% 4.9% No position −33.7% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $6.43 14.0% 13.2% No position −23.8% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $7.01 17.6% 4.0% Short −8.3% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $7.76 18.8% 4.0% Short −9.7% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $11.10 19.6% 4.0% Short −30.1% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $7.30 7.8% 4.0% No position +52.0% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $6.81 7.0% 2.0% No position +7.2% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $4.50 44.6% 3.6% Short +51.3% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $5.84 43.5% 9.7% Short −22.9% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $8.45 23.0% 12.5% Short −30.9% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $8.06 2.7% 13.0% Long +4.8% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $9.46 2.8% 9.8% No position −14.8% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $10.63 -0.7% 2.0% No position −11.0% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $9.65 -1.1% 4.0% No position +10.2% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $8.65 -1.5% 4.0% No position +11.6% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $6.53 -3.3% 4.0% No position +32.5% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $2.89 -10.6% 4.0% Long +126.0% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $1.51 -10.6% 5.6% Long +91.4% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $6.35 1.4% 9.4% No position −76.2% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $7.21 2.0% 9.8% No position −11.9% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $8.02 -1.8% 10.8% Long −10.1% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $7.67 -6.7% 8.4% Long +4.6% +4.2%
December 31, 2018 $5.70 -4.9% 8.2% Long +34.6% +13.5%
September 30, 2018 $9.16 2.5% 8.8% No position −37.8% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $7.34 1.5% 7.8% No position +24.8% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $7.75 -7.3% 5.7% Long −5.3% +3.5%
December 31, 2017 $10.69 0.1% 2.0% No position −27.5% −1.0%
September 30, 2017 $7.35 -0.3% 2.0% No position +45.4% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $8.45 -2.0% 4.0% No position −13.0% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $6.77 -7.0% 4.0% Long +24.8% +3.1%
December 31, 2016 $5.53 -11.0% 4.0% Long +22.4% +5.9%
September 30, 2016 $5.78 -10.5% 4.0% Long −4.3% +4.0%
June 30, 2016 $5.20 -6.6% 2.0% No position +11.2% +3.8%
March 31, 2016 $2.65 -9.9% 2.0% Long +96.2% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $2.76 -9.2% 2.0% Long −4.0% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $4.03 -2.6% 3.9% No position −31.5% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $7.21 5.0% 5.7% No position −44.1% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $6.44 8.8% 6.3% No position +12.0% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $6.66 5.4% 5.9% No position −3.3% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $6.18 5.6% 4.0% No position +7.8% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $10.04 12.3% 2.0% Short −38.5% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $9.12 18.8% 4.0% Short +10.1% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $7.27 16.2% 4.0% Short +25.4% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $7.95 32.6% 4.0% Short −8.6% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $7.46 22.0% 2.0% Short +6.6% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $7.80 21.7% 3.1% Short −4.4% +2.9%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: CVGI vs MPAACVGI vs HLLYCVGI vs STRTCVGI vs HSAI

More: Automotive Parts & Equipment stocks compared, Consumer Discretionary sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved November 2, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.