Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a US-listed company in the aerospace & defense industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Under review: every model's value for Firefly Aerospace Inc. is far from the share price, which usually points to a data problem (a merger, a share-count change, a one-off) rather than a bargain or a bubble.
Under review: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating. We'll show the comparison once resolved.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $287m. Free-cash-flow margin rose to -113.8% from -179.1% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to -118.0% from -218.2%. It passes 4 of our 6 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Firefly Aerospace is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed August 11, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 179.2% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -113.8%.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 179.2% (+108.5pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Firefly Aerospace Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.16 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.5 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x) |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Firefly Aerospace Inc. with Aerospace & Defense in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price | $22.37 |
| Market value | $1.5bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$504m |
| Enterprise value | $1.0bn |
| Multiples | |
| Price / sales | 9.7x |
| Price / earnings | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 10, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $103m and EPS of −$0.50 (range −$0.54 to −$0.43) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$1.87 | +42% | $439m | +174% |
| Next | −$1.80 | +4% | $686m | +57% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −11.3% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$2.11 | −$1.29 |
| 60 days ago | −$2.11 | −$1.29 |
| 30 days ago | −$1.86 | −$1.74 |
| 7 days ago | −$1.86 | −$1.74 |
| Now | −$1.87 | −$1.80 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.53 | −$0.42 | +20.4% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.52 | −$0.46 | +11.5% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.48 | −$0.38 | +22.2% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.44 | −$0.55 | −25.2% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2026 to date |
|---|---|
| Return | |
| FLY | −27% |
| Industry peers (median) | −11% |
| S&P 500 | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |
| FLY | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |
| FLY | −72% |
| S&P 500 | −9% |
Worst fall since August 7, 2025: 73% from August 7, 2025 to November 2, 2026. Getting back needed a 271% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11, 2026 | +3.0% | −0.1% | +1.5% | −18.9% |
| May 4, 2026 | −6.7% | +0.4% | +13.1% | +17.7% |
| March 19, 2026 | +0.1% | −1.7% | +15.6% | +84.5% |
| November 12, 2025 | +12.0% | −1.6% | +1.5% | +15.5% |
| September 22, 2025 | −7.2% | −0.1% | −18.2% | −37.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q1 | $108.3M |
| FY25 Q2 | $102.8M |
| FY25 Q3 | $111.2M |
| FY25 Q4 | $159.9M |
| FY26 Q1 | $184.9M |
| FY26 Q2 | $287M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q1 | -202.0% |
| FY25 Q2 | -218.2% |
| FY25 Q3 | -226.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | -163.1% |
| FY26 Q1 | -161.1% |
| FY26 Q2 | -118.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q2 | -179.1% |
| FY25 Q3 | -181.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | -148.7% |
| FY26 Q1 | -139.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | -113.8% |
| Fiscal year | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 55 | 61 | 160 | 287 |
| Gross profit | 27 | −11 | 31 | 66 |
| EBITDA | −127 | −197 | −238 | −303 |
| Operating income | −132 | −209 | −261 | −339 |
| Net income | −135 | −231 | −298 | −363 |
| Diluted EPS | −$13.05 | −$20.74 | −$4.83 | — |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | +10.1% | +163.0% | +179.2% |
| Margins | ||||
| Gross margin | 48.2% | −18.7% | 19.2% | 22.9% |
| EBITDA margin | −230.2% | −323.9% | −148.6% | −105.4% |
| Operating margin | −238.8% | −344.5% | −163.1% | −118.0% |
| Net margin | −245.2% | −380.2% | −186.6% | −126.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −309.0% | −313.1% | −148.7% | −113.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | −93 | −158 | −205 | −264 |
| Capital spending | 77 | 33 | 33 | 62 |
| Free cash flow | −171 | −190 | −238 | −326 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 2 | 18 | 46 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −172 | −192 | −256 | −373 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 82 | 123 | 793 | 460 |
| Total debt | 0 | 171 | 289 | 27 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −82 | 47 | −504 | −433 |
| Diluted shares | 12m | 13m | 69m | — |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 22 | 9 | 56 | 16 | 31 | 58 | 81 | 118 |
| Gross profit | 8 | −20 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 17 | 24 |
| EBITDA | −31 | −71 | −55 | −50 | −58 | −76 | −80 | −89 |
| Operating income | −34 | −77 | −59 | −54 | −62 | −86 | −96 | −95 |
| Net income | −41 | −84 | −60 | −64 | −133 | −41 | −97 | −92 |
| Diluted EPS | −$3.57 | −$7.94 | −$5.38 | −$5.78 | −$1.50 | $2.42 | −$0.61 | −$0.57 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | — | — | −26.2% | +37.6% | +538.4% | +44.8% | +656.9% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 34.7% | −223.2% | 4.0% | 25.7% | 27.6% | 27.7% | 21.6% | 20.3% |
| EBITDA margin | −137.2% | −787.9% | −97.7% | −324.5% | −187.1% | −131.7% | −98.6% | −75.8% |
| Operating margin | −152.9% | −854.7% | −104.8% | −349.5% | −202.1% | −148.4% | −118.3% | −80.9% |
| Net margin | −182.3% | −931.1% | −107.6% | −410.2% | −433.5% | −71.2% | −119.5% | −78.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −200.2% | −475.0% | −106.0% | −239.7% | −201.3% | −137.5% | −97.5% | −90.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −37 | −40 | −57 | −28 | −53 | −67 | −63 | −82 |
| Capital spending | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 25 |
| Free cash flow | −45 | −43 | −59 | −37 | −62 | −79 | −79 | −106 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 17 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −45 | −43 | −60 | −38 | −66 | −92 | −91 | −123 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | FLY | RDW | TATT | LUNR | LOAR | KRMN | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $287m | $426m | $178m | $490m | $586m | $590m | $727m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 179.2% | 63.1% | 17.0% | 116.9% | 29.8% | 50.2% | 15.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 26.9% | 30.8% | 79.7% | — | — | 12.6% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 656.9% | 89.6% | — | 309.8% | 39.4% | 58.2% | 15.9% |
| Gross margin | 22.9% | 20.1% | 24.8% | — | 52.2% | 41.7% | 27.4% |
| Operating margin | −118.0% | −50.5% | 10.6% | −27.5% | 21.9% | 16.8% | 8.5% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | −36.7% | 3.4% | −31.9% | 21.8% | — | 6.0% |
| Net margin | −126.6% | −57.3% | 9.4% | −26.6% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −92.1% | −17.9% | 8.4% | −25.8% | 20.7% | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −113.8% | −23.0% | 2.3% | −38.3% | 18.5% | −4.7% | 3.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | −27.1% | −7.5% | −35.7% | 13.8% | — | 3.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 16.1% | 17.4% | 0.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Change in share count | — | 41.9% | 9.5% | 47.4% | — | −11.4% | 3.9% |
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spacecraft Solutions Revenue | $131M | 82.1% | ▲ 243.9% |
| Launch Revenue | $28.6M | 17.9% | ▲ 26.5% |
| Other Revenue | $0 | 0.0% | — |
From Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s 10-K filed March 20, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ae Industrial Partners, LP | $1B | 34.5M | 36.4% | ▼ 2.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $174M | 5.9M | 6.2% | ▲ 189.7% |
| State Street Corp | $123M | 4.2M | 4.4% | ▲ 751.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $106M | 3.6M | 3.8% | ▲ 48.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $90.3M | 3.1M | 3.2% | ▲ 31.6% |
| Van Eck Associates Corp | $89.6M | 3.0M | 3.2% | ▲ 43.8% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $81.2M | 2.8M | 2.9% | ▲ 341.2% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | $79.8M | 2.7M | 2.9% | ▲ 14756.4% |
| Tema Etfs LLC | $67.1M | 2.3M | 2.4% | — |
| Tidal Investments LLC | $63.7M | 2.2M | 2.3% | New |
| Phoenix Financial Ltd. | $53.3M | 1.8M | 1.9% | ▲ 174.7% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $48.6M | 1.7M | 1.7% | ▲ 86.1% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glow Ns Holdings, Llc 10% owner | June 1, 2026 | Sell | 2,801,128 | $48.00 | $134M |
| Glow Ns Holdings, Llc 10% owner | June 1, 2026 | Sell | 5,198,872 | $48.00 | $250M |
| Wheeler David Leigh General Counsel | May 18, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 3,765 | $45.12 | $169,877 |
| Wheeler David Leigh General Counsel | April 17, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 3,766 | $45.04 | $169,621 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around November 11, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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