National Bank Holdings Corp is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$41
Valuation models combined (6)
Base case. Range ~$30–$48. Weighted average of 6 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, forward price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
Modestly undervalued
The price is inside our value range, 7% below our base value.
Price used: $38.06, November 2, 2026
National Bank Holdings Corp valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $465m, up 12.5% on a year earlier, faster than the 8.3% growth a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 7.8% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Our cash-flow model value is $39.01 a share, against a share price of $37.82.
Source: 10-Q filed August 5, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
National Bank Holdings Corp's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 12.5% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 28.5%. Where it lags: stock pay as % of revenue of 3.6% ranks 197 of 206 regional banks companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 12.5% (+4.1pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value National Bank Holdings Corp as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.79 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$41 ~$29–$60 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$43 ~$36–$53 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$48 ~$28–$69 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$30 ~$40–$58 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$38 ~$36–$46 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$44 ~$36–$55 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$41 ~$30–$48 | 6 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare National Bank Holdings Corp with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moderate moat
How hard National Bank Holdings's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.2% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 26.5%; its worst year was 10.1%.
The diluted share count rose 33.0% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 1.8% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (64 before it).
Next results: January 26, 2027, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $140m and EPS of $0.96 (range $0.89 to $1.00) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $2.56 | −16% | $534m | +26% |
| Next | $3.92 | +53% | $574m | +8% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −0.2% in 90 days, across 4 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −22.4% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised National Bank Holdings Corp's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $3.30 | $3.93 |
| 60 days ago | $3.30 | $3.93 |
| 30 days ago | $3.30 | $3.95 |
| 7 days ago | $2.94 | $3.95 |
| Now | $2.56 | $3.92 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.28 | $0.06 | −78.6% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.81 | $0.78 | −3.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.65 | $0.72 | +10.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.82 | $0.60 | −26.6% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +10.2%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $414m | $465m | +12.5% |
| Net margin | 28.9% | 21.2% | −26.6% |
| P/E multiple | 11.1x | 16.0x | +44.0% |
| Share count | 38m | 41m | −7.3% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
Last 3 years +29.1%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $409m | $465m | +13.8% |
| Net margin | 25.8% | 21.2% | −17.8% |
| P/E multiple | 10.2x | 16.0x | +56.6% |
| Share count | 36m | 41m | −11.8% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| NBHC | +37% | −2% | −9% | +19% | −9% | +3% |
| Industry peers (median) | +34% | −4% | −2% | +16% | +10% | +24% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| NBHC | 67% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| NBHC | −18% | −24% | −37% | −16% | −23% | −21% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 48% from August 22, 2018 to March 23, 2020. Getting back needed a 94% gain, reached on February 24, 2021, 338 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27, 2026 | −4.0% | +0.9% | — | — |
| July 21, 2026 | −4.5% | +0.7% | −6.8% | −8.7% |
| April 21, 2026 | −1.5% | +0.4% | +2.6% | −0.3% |
| January 27, 2026 | −1.1% | +0.4% | +2.6% | +1.8% |
| October 21, 2025 | +2.7% | −0.5% | +0.4% | −3.1% |
| July 22, 2025 | +1.7% | +0.9% | −2.8% | −4.9% |
| April 22, 2025 | −3.9% | +4.2% | +2.0% | +3.3% |
| January 22, 2025 | −4.2% | +1.1% | −3.2% | −4.9% |
| October 22, 2024 | +8.1% | −1.0% | +9.5% | +12.8% |
| July 23, 2024 | −3.8% | −2.4% | −6.1% | −6.9% |
| April 24, 2024 | −3.3% | −0.4% | −3.9% | +4.6% |
| January 23, 2024 | +2.2% | +0.4% | +0.9% | −6.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $429.5M |
| FY23 Q4 | $425.9M |
| FY24 Q1 | $418M |
| FY24 Q2 | $412M |
| FY24 Q3 | $410.9M |
| FY24 Q4 | $406.6M |
| FY25 Q1 | $407M |
| FY25 Q2 | $413.8M |
| FY25 Q3 | $416.7M |
| FY25 Q4 | $416.1M |
| FY26 Q1 | $440.8M |
| FY26 Q2 | $465.4M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 44.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 27.4% |
| FY24 Q1 | 10.6% |
| FY24 Q2 | 0.8% |
| FY24 Q3 | -4.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | -4.5% |
| FY25 Q1 | -2.6% |
| FY25 Q2 | 0.4% |
| FY25 Q3 | 1.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 2.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 8.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | 12.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 30.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 33.6% |
| FY24 Q1 | 45.7% |
| FY24 Q2 | 31.6% |
| FY24 Q3 | 31.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 32.2% |
| FY25 Q1 | 34.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | 34.1% |
| FY25 Q3 | 34.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 32.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 8.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | 28.5% |
What National Bank Holdings earned on its loans and securities in FY2025, what it paid depositors and lenders, and how its revenue split between running costs, credit losses, tax and profit.
| Interest income | $520M | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee and other income | $67.6M | 16.2% of revenue |
| Interest paid | $171M | |
| Net interest income | $349M | 83.8% of revenue |
| Revenue | $416M | |
| Non-interest expense | $265M | 63.6% of revenue |
| Credit-loss provisions | $17.8M | 4.3% of revenue |
| Pre-tax profit | $134M | 32.1% of revenue |
| Income tax | $24.1M | 5.8% of revenue |
| Net income | $110M | 26.3% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 58 | 245 | 242 | 199 | 169 | 178 | 186 | 186 | 268 | 289 | 333 | 298 | 334 | 426 | 407 | 416 | 465 |
| Net income | 6 | 42 | −1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 15 | 61 | 80 | 89 | 94 | 71 | 142 | 119 | 110 | 99 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.11 | $0.81 | −$0.01 | $0.14 | $0.22 | $0.14 | $0.79 | $0.53 | $1.95 | $2.55 | $2.85 | $3.01 | $2.18 | $3.72 | $3.08 | $2.85 | $2.38 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +321.8% | −1.4% | −17.6% | −15.4% | +5.8% | +4.1% | −0.1% | +44.6% | +7.6% | +15.5% | −10.7% | +12.3% | +27.4% | −4.5% | +2.3% | +12.5% |
| Net income | — | +593.5% | −101.3% | — | +32.5% | −46.8% | +372.4% | −36.8% | +321.5% | +30.8% | +10.2% | +5.7% | −23.9% | +99.3% | −16.4% | −7.8% | −17.5% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +636.4% | −101.2% | — | +57.1% | −36.4% | +464.3% | −32.9% | +267.9% | +30.8% | +11.8% | +5.6% | −27.6% | +70.6% | −17.2% | −7.5% | −23.5% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | 10.4% | 17.1% | −0.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 22.9% | 27.8% | 26.6% | 31.5% | 21.3% | 33.4% | 29.2% | 26.3% | 21.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −34.5% | −16.7% | −71.1% | −16.3% | −2.6% | −23.9% | −2.1% | 31.3% | 27.4% | 15.3% | −1.9% | 60.3% | 64.2% | 39.2% | 38.2% | 39.0% | 36.3% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | −19 | −19 | −131 | −26 | −3 | −38 | −4 | 58 | 74 | 44 | −6 | 180 | 215 | 167 | 155 | 162 | 169 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 22 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −20 | −41 | −172 | −32 | −4 | −43 | −4 | 58 | 74 | 44 | −6 | 180 | 215 | 167 | 155 | 162 | 169 |
| Stock-based pay | 17 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 17 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −37 | −54 | −185 | −37 | −8 | −46 | −7 | 54 | 69 | 39 | −12 | 174 | 209 | 160 | 147 | 155 | 152 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 1,908 | 1,628 | 769 | 189 | 257 | 166 | 153 | 257 | 110 | 110 | 606 | 846 | 196 | 191 | 128 | 417 | 381 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 54 | 54 | 55 | 55 | 202 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −1,908 | −1,628 | −769 | −189 | −257 | −166 | −153 | −257 | −110 | −110 | −606 | −806 | −142 | −137 | −73 | −363 | −179 |
| Diluted shares | 53m | 52m | 52m | 51m | 42m | 34m | 29m | 28m | 31m | 32m | 31m | 31m | 33m | 38m | 38m | 38m | 41m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | — | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 53 |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 147 | 119 | 175 | 94 | — | — | — | 19 | 36 | — | — | — | 15 | 38 |
| Total returned | — | 0 | 3 | 157 | 128 | 182 | 100 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 44 | 63 | 30 | 40 | 43 | 61 | 91 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 106 | 101 | 102 | 104 | 109 | 101 | 127 | 129 |
| Net income | 33 | 28 | 24 | 34 | 35 | 16 | 21 | 26 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.86 | $0.72 | $0.63 | $0.88 | $0.92 | $0.42 | $0.46 | $0.58 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −1.0% | −4.1% | +0.3% | +7.0% | +2.7% | −0.6% | +24.2% | +23.5% |
| Net income | −8.3% | −14.9% | −22.8% | +30.2% | +6.6% | −43.1% | −14.2% | −22.1% |
| Diluted EPS | −8.5% | −17.2% | −23.2% | +29.4% | +7.0% | −41.7% | −27.0% | −34.1% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 31.2% | 27.8% | 23.7% | 32.6% | 32.4% | 15.9% | 16.4% | 20.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 44.3% | 45.9% | 38.8% | 31.0% | 48.1% | 37.8% | −44.8% | 104.7% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 47 | 46 | 40 | 32 | 52 | 38 | −57 | 135 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 47 | 46 | 40 | 32 | 52 | 38 | −57 | 135 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 45 | 44 | 38 | 30 | 50 | 37 | −63 | 128 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | NBHC | FBNC | BY | SRCE | PEBO | TFIN | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $465m | $463m | $463m | $462m | $469m | $472m | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 12.5% | 24.6% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 11.7% | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 4.4% | 4.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 23.5% | 45.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 15.0% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 21.2% | 35.4% | 32.3% | 38.5% | 25.9% | 10.7% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 36.3% | 61.4% | 35.6% | 51.1% | 37.3% | 24.0% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 28.5% | 59.7% | 35.1% | 49.7% | 36.5% | 21.4% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 31.4% | 51.3% | 34.7% | 48.5% | 31.2% | 14.9% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 3.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | 7.8% | −0.0% | 1.5% | −1.3% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 12.5% | 12.5% | 125 of 245 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +4.1pp | +0.0pp | 52 of 244 |
| Net margin Profitability | 21.2% | 28.7% | 188 of 245 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 3.6% | 1.3% | 197 of 206 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 7.8% | 0.4% | 186 of 230 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Servicing Charges and Other Fees | $23.6M | ▲ 9.3% |
| Credit and Debit Card | $17.8M | ▼ 6.0% |
| Bank Servicing | $16.7M | ▼ 7.0% |
| Other Non Interest Income | $5.7M | ▲ 2.0% |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
From National Bank Holdings Corp's 10-K filed February 24, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $289M | 6.5M | 15.8% | ▲ 17.8% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $122M | 2.7M | 6.6% | ▲ 5.7% |
| William Blair Investment Management, LLC | $111M | 2.5M | 6.1% | ▲ 0.9% |
| State Street Corp | $103M | 2.3M | 5.6% | ▲ 6.5% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $99.4M | 2.2M | 5.4% | ▲ 6.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $84.9M | 1.9M | 4.6% | ▲ 3.5% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | $74.9M | 1.7M | 4.1% | ▲ 9.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $61.3M | 1.4M | 3.3% | ▲ 17.3% |
| Wellington Management Group LLP | $57.8M | 1.3M | 3.2% | ▼ 42.0% |
| Westwood Holdings Group Inc | $56.7M | 1.3M | 3.1% | ▼ 10.2% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $50.5M | 1.1M | 2.8% | ▲ 12.0% |
| Deprince Race & Zollo Inc | $40.1M | 904K | 2.2% | ▼ 14.9% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not National Bank Holdings Corp's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring Maria F Director | May 20, 2026 | Sell | 963 | $41.84 | $40,292 |
| Steinmetz John Exec Mng Dir of Strategic Init | February 11, 2026 | Buy | 24,200 | $41.41 | $1M |
| Spring Maria F Director | November 11, 2025 | Sell | 6,214 | $37.14 | $230,788 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around January 26, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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