Natwest Group plc is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$19
Valuation models combined (6)
Base case. Range ~$11–$23. Weighted average of 6 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
Modestly undervalued
The price is inside our value range, 16% below our base value.
Price used: $15.76, November 2, 2026
Natwest Group plc valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $39.9bn, up 6.5% on a year earlier, slower than the 18.7% growth a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is down 4.6% on a year earlier, which lifts each remaining share. Our cash-flow model value is $18.34 a share, against a share price of $15.47.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Natwest Group plc's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 6.5% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 21.2%. Where it stands out: change in share count of -4.6% ranks 18 of 230 regional banks companies we cover. Where it lags: change in growth rate of -12.2pp ranks 224 of 244 regional banks companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 405.6% while net income grew 25.2%: a 380pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for NWG from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Natwest Group plc as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.78 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$19 ~$14–$27 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$21 ~$18–$26 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$20 ~$12–$27 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$11 ~$15–$22 | Included |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$18 ~$21–$28 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$23 ~$19–$28 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$19 ~$11–$23 | 6 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Natwest Group plc with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
No analyst estimates are published for Natwest Group plc: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.51 | $0.51 | −0.7% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.47 | $0.54 | +14.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.45 | $0.49 | +8.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.39 | $0.47 | +21.4% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
How Natwest Group plc’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: fundamentals grade C (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY15 Q4 | $25.8B |
| FY16 Q4 | $21.6B |
| FY17 Q4 | $20.7B |
| FY18 Q4 | $22.3B |
| FY19 Q4 | $23.2B |
| FY20 Q4 | $17.3B |
| FY21 Q4 | $17.5B |
| FY22 Q4 | $20.5B |
| FY23 Q4 | $31.6B |
| FY24 Q4 | $37.5B |
| FY25 Q4 | $39.9B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | -16.3% |
| FY17 Q4 | -4.2% |
| FY18 Q4 | 7.5% |
| FY19 Q4 | 4.2% |
| FY20 Q4 | -25.6% |
| FY21 Q4 | 1.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | 17.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 54.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 18.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 6.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY15 Q4 | 0.8% |
| FY16 Q4 | -28.6% |
| FY17 Q4 | 215.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | -44.2% |
| FY19 Q4 | -20.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 213.6% |
| FY21 Q4 | 415.5% |
| FY22 Q4 | -266.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | -71.9% |
| FY24 Q4 | 4.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 21.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 25.8 | 21.6 | 20.7 | 22.3 | 23.2 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 20.5 | 31.6 | 37.5 | 39.9 |
| Net income | −1.8 | −7.1 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 4.9 | −0.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 7.7 |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $0.83 | $1.19 | $1.36 | $1.78 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | — | −16.3% | −4.2% | +7.5% | +4.2% | −25.6% | +1.3% | +17.3% | +54.0% | +18.7% | +6.5% |
| Net income | — | — | — | +47.9% | +68.8% | −111.5% | — | −2.4% | +29.6% | +6.7% | +25.2% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +42.8% | +14.4% | +31.0% |
| Margins | |||||||||||
| Net margin | −7.0% | −32.9% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 20.9% | −3.2% | 26.1% | 21.7% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 19.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 0.8% | −28.6% | 215.3% | −44.2% | −20.0% | 213.6% | 415.5% | −266.9% | −71.9% | 4.5% | 21.2% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 1.4 | −4.9 | 46.0 | −9.0 | −3.9 | 37.3 | 73.9 | −53.9 | −21.7 | 2.3 | 9.3 |
| Capital spending | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Free cash flow | 0.2 | −6.2 | 44.6 | −9.8 | −4.6 | 36.8 | 72.6 | −54.7 | −22.7 | 1.7 | 8.5 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| Cash | 152.8 | 121.6 | 165.9 | 139.0 | 133.5 | 190.2 | 257.5 | 191.4 | 151.4 | 131.3 | 128.3 |
| Total debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −152.8 | −121.6 | −165.9 | −139.0 | −133.5 | −190.2 | −257.5 | −191.4 | −151.4 | −131.3 | −128.3 |
| Diluted shares | 5,371m | 5,449m | 5,538m | 5,596m | 5,615m | 5,616m | 5,419m | 4,965m | 4,610m | 4,258m | 4,063m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||
| Dividends | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.1 |
| Buybacks | −0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| Total returned | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.9 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | NWG | FITB | HBAN | MTB | FCNCA | CFG | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $39.9bn | $10.7bn | $10.4bn | $10.0bn | $9.6bn | $8.9bn | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 6.5% | 23.8% | 30.6% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 10.6% | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 6.6% | 10.9% | 0.7% | −15.9% | 1.9% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 45.8% | 30.8% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 9.6% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 19.3% | 21.8% | 24.0% | 30.4% | 24.5% | 25.4% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 23.4% | 34.1% | 32.3% | 38.2% | 33.1% | 14.1% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 21.2% | 28.1% | 28.1% | 35.0% | 25.6% | 9.3% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 217.3% | 37.1% | 26.6% | 35.0% | 26.0% | 20.1% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | −0.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | −4.6% | 13.6% | 27.6% | −8.0% | −11.7% | −2.4% | 0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 6.5% | 12.5% | 191 of 245 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -12.2pp | +0.0pp | 224 of 244 |
| Net margin Profitability | 19.3% | 28.7% | 202 of 245 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -4.6% | 0.4% | 18 of 230 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | $320M | 18.2M | 9.1% | ▲ 24.6% |
| Natixis Advisors, LLC | $224M | 12.7M | 6.4% | ▼ 0.8% |
| BNP Paribas Financial Markets | $223M | 12.6M | 6.4% | ▲ 7347.4% |
| Capital International Investors | $222M | 12.7M | 6.3% | ▼ 0.5% |
| Jones Financial Companies LLLP | $215M | 12.5M | 6.2% | ▲ 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $179M | 10.2M | 5.1% | ▲ 21.1% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $138M | 7.8M | 4.0% | ▲ 12.9% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $129M | 7.3M | 3.7% | ▲ 1.2% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $110M | 6.3M | 3.1% | ▲ 169.3% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $88.4M | 5.0M | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $80.8M | 4.6M | 2.3% | ▼ 9.5% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $74.8M | 4.2M | 2.1% | ▲ 68.2% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Natwest Group plc's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Natwest Group plc disclosed in the last 12 months; 9 earlier trades on record.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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