Upstream Bio, Inc. is a US-listed company in the biotechnology industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$3.8
Growth cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$3.8–$3.8. Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
Upstream Bio, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Upstream Bio has little or no product revenue yet; it used $137m of cash in the twelve months to June 2026. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades E. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks.
Source: 10-Q filed August 11, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Upstream Bio, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 16.0% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -4323.8%. Where it lags: free-cash-flow margin of -4323.8% ranks 162 of 176 biotechnology companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 19.6% while net income fell 49.8%: a 30pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Upstream Bio, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.3%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.96 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$3.8 ~$3.8–$3.8 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.1 ~$0.1–$0.3 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.02x) |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$3.8 ~$3.8–$3.8 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Upstream Bio, Inc. with Biotechnology in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2024 | 2025 | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $16.44 | $27.15 | $3.35 |
| Market value | $900m | $1.5bn | $182m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$326m | −$102m | −$79m |
| Enterprise value | $574m | $1.4bn | $102m |
| Multiples | |||
| Price / sales | n/m | n/m | 57.5x |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 4, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $480290 and EPS of −$0.73 (range −$0.88 to −$0.52) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$2.90 | −9% | $3m | −5% |
| Next | −$2.80 | +4% | $1m | −50% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −0.0% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 5 analysts raised Upstream Bio, Inc.'s forecast and 3 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$2.90 | −$3.03 |
| 60 days ago | −$2.84 | −$2.89 |
| 30 days ago | −$2.84 | −$2.89 |
| 7 days ago | −$2.90 | −$2.93 |
| Now | −$2.90 | −$2.80 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.76 | −$0.73 | +4.1% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.75 | −$0.75 | +0.5% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.70 | −$0.78 | −11.6% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.78 | −$0.63 | +19.5% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|
| Return | ||
| UPB | +65% | −88% |
| Industry peers (median) | −5% | −26% |
| S&P 500 | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||
| UPB | 58% | 36% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||
| UPB | −67% | −92% |
| S&P 500 | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since October 11, 2024: 92% from January 13, 2026 to October 23, 2026. Getting back needed a 1090% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11, 2026 | −7.1% | −0.1% | −7.9% | −22.7% |
| May 13, 2026 | −1.8% | +1.4% | −6.0% | −31.8% |
| March 26, 2026 | −8.4% | −3.5% | +0.3% | −1.9% |
| February 11, 2026 | −54.0% | −1.6% | −69.3% | −66.8% |
| November 5, 2025 | −5.5% | −0.7% | −5.3% | +10.8% |
| August 6, 2025 | +2.2% | +0.7% | +19.7% | +28.8% |
| May 6, 2025 | −1.2% | −0.4% | −0.3% | +24.8% |
| March 12, 2025 | +5.8% | −0.8% | −0.1% | −25.2% |
| November 7, 2024 | −1.5% | +1.2% | −2.4% | −16.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q2 | $2.2M |
| FY24 Q3 | $2.2M |
| FY24 Q4 | $2.4M |
| FY25 Q1 | $2.3M |
| FY25 Q2 | $2.7M |
| FY25 Q3 | $2.8M |
| FY25 Q4 | $2.9M |
| FY26 Q1 | $3.3M |
| FY26 Q2 | $3.2M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q2 | 22.6% |
| FY25 Q3 | 26.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 20.4% |
| FY26 Q1 | 44.7% |
| FY26 Q2 | 16.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q2 | -2533.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | -2980.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | -3281.2% |
| FY25 Q1 | -4127.4% |
| FY25 Q2 | -4464.6% |
| FY25 Q3 | -5020.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | -5618.8% |
| FY26 Q1 | -5176.5% |
| FY26 Q2 | -5382.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q3 | -2524.9% |
| FY24 Q4 | -2500.5% |
| FY25 Q1 | -3610.4% |
| FY25 Q2 | -4191.2% |
| FY25 Q3 | -4374.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | -4676.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | -4219.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | -4323.8% |
| Fiscal year | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| EBITDA | −40 | −78 | −160 | −170 |
| Operating income | −40 | −78 | −160 | −170 |
| Net income | −21 | −63 | −143 | −157 |
| Diluted EPS | −$3.24 | −$1.40 | −$2.66 | −$2.89 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | −0.4% | +20.4% | +16.0% |
| Margins | ||||
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Net margin | −862.9% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | — |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | −38 | −59 | −133 | −136 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Free cash flow | −38 | −60 | −133 | — |
| Stock-based pay | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −41 | −66 | −144 | — |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 26 | 326 | 102 | 79 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −26 | −326 | −102 | −79 |
| Diluted shares | 12m | 55m | 54m | 54m |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| EBITDA | −19 | −26 | −32 | −44 | −38 | −46 | −44 | −42 |
| Operating income | −19 | −26 | −32 | −44 | −38 | −46 | −44 | −42 |
| Net income | −16 | −21 | −27 | −40 | −34 | −42 | −41 | −40 |
| Diluted EPS | −$6.96 | $12.57 | −$0.51 | −$0.74 | −$0.63 | −$0.78 | −$0.75 | −$0.73 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −2.3% | +36.2% | −11.6% | +83.7% | +12.5% | +9.0% | +82.7% | −17.5% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Net margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | <−999% | — | — | <−999% | <−999% | — | <−999% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −14 | −20 | −41 | −39 | −22 | −31 | −48 | −36 |
| Capital spending | — | 0 | — | — | 0 | 0 | — | 0 |
| Free cash flow | — | −20 | — | — | −22 | −31 | — | −36 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | −22 | — | — | −25 | −33 | — | −40 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | UPB | XBIO | ALGS | DYAI | DBVT | VTGN | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3m | $3m | $4m | $4m | $4m | $3m | $56m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 16.0% | 33.3% | 19.4% | −8.0% | −31.6% | 287.3% | 12.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 14.7% | −5.5% | 3.4% | −11.6% | — | 13.7% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | −17.5% | 12.0% | −100.0% | −0.6% | −42.9% | 504.9% | 10.2% |
| Gross margin | — | 99.8% | — | 16.2% | — | — | 82.9% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | −81.0% | <−999% | −195.1% | <−999% | <−999% | −189.4% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | <−999% | −137.7% | <−999% | −257.9% | <−999% | <−999% | −363.5% |
| Net margin | <−999% | −75.9% | <−999% | −200.5% | <−999% | <−999% | −169.8% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | <−999% | −70.9% | <−999% | −194.7% | <−999% | <−999% | −168.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | −70.9% | <−999% | — | <−999% | <−999% | −162.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | −103.3% | <−999% | — | <−999% | <−999% | −310.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 446.5% | 2.9% | 149.8% | 17.1% | 335.9% | 162.7% | 20.0% |
| Change in share count | — | 34.7% | 30.7% | 20.3% | 216.3% | 30.8% | 8.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 16.0% | 12.6% | 84 of 172 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -28.7pp | -0.1pp | 133 of 172 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -5382.6% | -189.4% | 159 of 175 |
| Net margin Profitability | -4955.7% | -157.3% | 164 of 180 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -4323.8% | -145.4% | 162 of 176 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 446.5% | 19.2% | 163 of 179 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 89 days | 75 days | 59 of 100 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | $56.5M | 8.2M | 16.1% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Orbimed Advisors LLC | $39.4M | 5.7M | 11.3% | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $26.1M | 3.8M | 7.4% | — |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $26M | 3.8M | 7.4% | ▲ 11.4% |
| Decheng Capital LLC | $18.9M | 2.7M | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Enavate Sciences Gp, LLC | $17M | 2.5M | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $13M | 1.9M | 3.7% | ▲ 0.2% |
| Millennium Management LLC | $7.9M | 1.1M | 2.3% | ▲ 22.0% |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $7.2M | 1.0M | 2.0% | ▲ 26.3% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $7M | 1.0M | 2.0% | ▲ 118.6% |
| Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $6.8M | 979K | 1.9% | ▲ 58.0% |
| Parkman Healthcare Partners LLC | $6.5M | 935K | 1.8% | ▲ 18.9% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Upstream Bio, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambrose Allison General Counsel | September 16, 2026 | Sell | 485 | $5.49 | $2,663 |
| Gray Michael CFO and COO | September 16, 2026 | Sell | 853 | $5.49 | $4,683 |
| Houghton Adam Chief Business Officer | September 16, 2026 | Sell | 700 | $5.49 | $3,843 |
| Sutherland Everett Rand Chief Executive Officer | September 16, 2026 | Sell | 2,095 | $5.49 | $11,502 |
| Deykin Aaron Chief Medical Officer | September 16, 2026 | Sell | 895 | $5.49 | $4,914 |
| Ambrose Allison General Counsel | June 16, 2026 | Sell | 477 | $6.10 | $2,910 |
| Deykin Aaron Chief Medical Officer | June 16, 2026 | Sell | 895 | $6.10 | $5,460 |
| Houghton Adam Chief Business Officer | June 16, 2026 | Sell | 700 | $6.10 | $4,270 |
| Sutherland Everett Rand Chief Executive Officer | June 16, 2026 | Sell | 2,095 | $6.10 | $12,780 |
| Gray Michael CFO and COO | June 16, 2026 | Sell | 853 | $6.10 | $5,203 |
| Houghton Adam Chief Business Officer | March 16, 2026 | Sell | 699 | $9.29 | $6,494 |
| Ambrose Allison General Counsel | March 16, 2026 | Sell | 475 | $9.29 | $4,413 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around November 9, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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