undamentalytics Newsletter

Willdan Group, Inc.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 13.4% a year; our model expects 15.4%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 13.4% a year; our model expects 15.4%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position3213 long, 19 short, since March 31, 2013
Beat the S&P 50020 of 3262.5% of quarters held
Strategy against the index+10.4%cumulative; worst fall -58.6%
$10,000 became$62,534S&P 500 bought and held: $49,868

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

-9%18%46%73%100% 2013201520172019202120232025 $2.1$37.7$73.3$109 Short from 2013-03-31Long from 2013-09-30Short from 2014-09-30Short from 2014-12-31Short from 2015-03-31Long from 2015-06-30Long from 2015-09-30Long from 2015-12-31Long from 2016-03-31Long from 2016-06-30Long from 2016-09-30Long from 2016-12-31Long from 2017-03-31Long from 2017-09-30Long from 2017-12-31Long from 2018-03-31Short from 2019-03-31Short from 2019-12-31Short from 2020-03-31Short from 2020-06-30Short from 2020-09-30Short from 2020-12-31Short from 2021-03-31Short from 2021-06-30Short from 2021-09-30Short from 2021-12-31Short from 2022-03-31Short from 2023-03-31Short from 2023-06-30Short from 2023-12-31Short from 2024-03-31Long from 2026-06-30
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$25.0k$50.0k$75.0k 2013201520172019202120232025 $62.5k$49.9k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into WLDN in long quarters and adds a short of WLDN in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 32 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 20, by +2.9% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 13 61.5% +9.6% +7.6% +29.5% 1.33 No reliable evidence
Shorts 19 63.2% −1.6% +4.9% −14.5% -0.37 No reliable evidence
All positions 32 62.5% +2.9% +5.9% +1.2% 0.73 No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (51)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionWLDNS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $73.88 13.4% 15.4% No position −1.3% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $79.10 7.0% 18.6% Long −6.6% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $76.56 11.9% 14.9% No position +3.3% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $103.66 17.6% 15.8% No position −26.1% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $96.69 20.3% 15.0% No position +7.2% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $62.51 15.0% 13.9% No position +54.7% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $40.72 7.6% 13.9% No position +53.5% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $38.09 13.1% 20.0% No position +6.9% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $40.95 20.5% 17.9% No position −7.0% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $28.85 21.4% 16.9% No position +41.9% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $28.99 100.0%* 14.1% Short −0.5% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $21.50 53.0% 9.0% Short +34.8% +10.4%
June 30, 2023 $19.16 50.5% 7.7% Short +6.6% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $15.62 67.0% 8.1% Short +22.7% +8.7%
March 31, 2022 $30.69 38.1% 4.0% Short −10.1% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $35.20 96.5% 4.0% Short −12.8% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $35.59 40.9% 4.0% Short −1.1% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $37.64 25.1% 4.0% Short −5.5% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $41.05 33.2% 11.3% Short −8.3% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $41.70 33.5% 11.3% Short −1.6% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $25.51 25.0% 13.0% Short +63.5% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $25.01 62.8% 13.0% Short +2.0% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $21.37 60.4% 13.0% Short +17.0% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $31.78 42.4% 13.0% Short −32.8% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $35.08 20.1% 13.0% No position −9.4% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $37.25 16.1% 20.0% No position −5.8% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $37.07 23.2% 9.5% Short +0.5% +4.2%
December 31, 2018 $34.98 10.4% 7.2% No position +6.0% +13.5%
September 30, 2018 $33.96 11.0% 8.3% No position +3.0% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $30.97 11.2% 12.1% No position +9.7% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $28.35 4.2% 20.0% Long +9.2% +3.5%
December 31, 2017 $23.94 2.6% 13.0% Long +18.4% −1.0%
September 30, 2017 $32.46 1.7% 13.0% Long −26.3% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $30.55 4.1% 13.0% No position +6.3% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $32.26 2.3% 13.0% Long −5.3% +3.1%
December 31, 2016 $22.59 0.4% 20.0% Long +42.8% +5.9%
September 30, 2016 $17.55 2.3% 20.0% Long +28.7% +4.0%
June 30, 2016 $10.62 1.4% 14.7% Long +65.3% +3.8%
March 31, 2016 $9.65 -7.4% 19.0% Long +10.1% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $8.38 -8.8% 13.0% Long +15.2% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $10.14 -1.7% 12.8% Long −17.4% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $11.18 -4.0% 9.7% Long −9.3% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $15.84 21.2% 7.4% Short −29.4% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $13.49 17.8% 7.4% Short +17.4% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $14.46 20.5% 4.8% Short −6.7% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $8.67 7.0% 2.0% No position +66.8% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $4.53 8.9% 2.0% No position +91.4% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $5.31 5.1% 4.0% No position −14.7% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $3.71 -6.5% 4.0% Long +43.1% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $3.01 1.4% 4.0% No position +23.3% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $2.21 18.7% 4.0% Short +36.2% +2.9%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split. * At the edge of the range we solve for.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Willdan Group, Inc.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: MG vs WLDNONT vs WLDNCRAI vs WLDNRMR vs WLDN

More: Research & Consulting Services stocks compared, Industrials sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Willdan Group, Inc.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 29, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Willdan Group, Inc.