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Congress: members

Carol D. Miller

Backtest from 13 Aug 2020 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+11.9%
S&P 500 +15.5%
Last 12 months
+13.1%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.66
S&P 500 0.78
Biggest drop
−16.3%
S&P 500 −23.9%
$10.0k$20.0k 2020202120222023202420252026 $24.4k$20.1k
Carol D. MillerS&P 500 $10,000 in Carol D. Miller from 13 Aug 2020 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Carol D. Miller (Republican, WV) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Carol D. Miller's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+11.9%+15.5%
Total return+101%+144%
Last 12 months+13.1%+12.1%
Last 3 months+3.3%—
Last month+3.2%—
This year so far+16.0%—
Volatility a year13.5%15.8%
Sharpe ratio0.660.78
Biggest drop−16.3%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.741.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−0.3% (−0.13)—
Share of weeks up59%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 95 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
MSFT18.0%13 Aug 2020+161.3%
AAPL9.7%13 Aug 2020+202.4%
UNH9.6%13 Aug 2020+37.8%
AMGN4.9%15 Sept 2020+126.1%
IRM4.8%15 Sept 2020+410.6%
GLW4.8%14 Aug 2026−25.3%
CSCO4.5%15 Sept 2020+201.1%
JNJ4.4%15 Sept 2020+113.6%
ABBV4.3%13 Aug 2020+286.9%
WM3.6%14 Aug 2026+5.9%
NEE3.6%14 Aug 2024+16.8%
MCD2.9%15 Sept 2020+36.6%
TXN2.6%6 Sept 2022+112.3%
ADBE2.4%13 Aug 2020−43.6%
EOG2.2%8 Dec 2023+47.6%
CVX2.2%15 Sept 2020+286.4%
ORCL2.1%13 Aug 2020+143.8%
APD1.9%18 Jan 2022+25.0%
GD1.6%6 Sept 2022+79.9%
BLK1.6%6 Sept 2022+94.3%
DOV1.6%15 Sept 2020+103.0%
TFC1.5%14 Aug 2026−5.8%
ABT1.3%15 Sept 2020+16.3%
GILD0.5%14 Apr 2025+66.6%
LMT0.5%14 Apr 2025+40.4%
ITW0.4%14 Apr 2025+28.2%
CME0.4%14 Apr 2025+21.6%
AWK0.4%14 Apr 2025+2.4%
AFL0.4%14 Apr 2025+18.3%
PEP0.4%14 Apr 2025+1.7%
CMI0.3%18 Apr 2023+129.8%
HSY0.3%14 Apr 2025+5.0%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest13 Aug 2020 to 2 Nov 2026+11.9%+15.5%0.660.78−16.3%0.74−0.3% (−0.13)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+13.0%+21.8%0.751.16−14.4%0.61−1.6% (−0.39)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+14.5%+14.2%1.080.84−6.5%0.50+5.0% (0.69)
DateCompanyAction
14 Aug 2026WMBought
14 Aug 2026TFCBought
14 Aug 2026GLWBought
14 Apr 2025PEPBought
14 Apr 2025LMTBought
14 Apr 2025ITWBought
14 Apr 2025HSYBought
14 Apr 2025HONBought
14 Apr 2025GILDBought
14 Apr 2025CMEBought
14 Apr 2025AWKBought
14 Apr 2025AFLBought
14 Aug 2024NEEBought
8 Dec 2023EOGBought
14 Aug 2023LHXBought
14 Aug 2023KOBought
18 Apr 2023CMIBought
6 Sept 2022UPSBought
6 Sept 2022TXNBought
6 Sept 2022TGTBought
6 Sept 2022GDBought
6 Sept 2022DGXBought
6 Sept 2022CLXBought
6 Sept 2022BLKBought
18 Jan 2022APDBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
14 Aug 2026PGSold
14 Aug 2026HONSold
14 Aug 2025WMSold
14 Aug 2025KOSold
14 Aug 2025GLWSold
14 Apr 2025USBSold
14 Apr 2025UPSSold
14 Apr 2025TGTSold
14 Apr 2025PFESold
14 Apr 2025DGXSold
14 Aug 2024MRKSold
14 Aug 2024LHXSold
14 Aug 2024HRLSold
14 Aug 2024GILDSold
14 Aug 2024DSold
14 Aug 2024CLXSold
14 Aug 2024BMYSold
6 Jun 2024YUMSold
6 Jun 2024TSold
6 Jun 2024MCKSold
6 Jun 2024CMCSASold
8 Dec 2023UNPSold
14 Aug 2023NEESold
6 Sept 2022EMRSold
18 Jan 2022CLXSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest