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Congress: members

Rick Larsen

Backtest from 30 May 2023 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+14.3%
S&P 500 +20.2%
Last 12 months
+16.4%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.80
S&P 500 1.05
Biggest drop
−12.5%
S&P 500 −16.9%
$10.0k$20.0k 2023202420252026 $18.8k$15.8k
Rick LarsenS&P 500 $10,000 in Rick Larsen from 30 May 2023 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Rick Larsen (Democrat, WA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Rick Larsen's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+14.3%+20.2%
Total return+58%+88%
Last 12 months+16.4%+12.1%
Last 3 months+3.5%—
Last month+6.4%—
This year so far+11.0%—
Volatility a year11.7%14.0%
Sharpe ratio0.801.05
Biggest drop−12.5%−16.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.661.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−0.3% (−0.07)—
Share of weeks up60%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 83 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
EOG4.5%1 Jun 2023+64.5%
XOM4.5%15 Jul 2025+66.4%
AMGN4.3%10 Jul 2023+129.2%
MRK4.2%14 Jun 2024+24.1%
MSI3.8%18 Jul 2023+73.8%
AAPL3.6%10 Jul 2023+81.4%
MCK3.6%13 Jul 2026+23.8%
V3.6%10 Jul 2023+83.2%
COST3.5%30 May 2023+113.7%
CTAS3.5%15 Jan 2025+16.7%
MA3.4%14 May 2026+34.9%
AEP3.4%17 Oct 2025+14.6%
WMT3.4%17 Oct 2025+19.1%
NDAQ3.3%14 Jun 2024+89.8%
WAB3.3%16 Apr 2026+12.3%
WM3.2%15 Jan 2026+9.1%
WSM3.2%13 Oct 2026+8.4%
MSFT3.1%10 Jul 2023+59.9%
DRI3.1%15 Jan 2026+6.5%
GS3.0%18 Jul 2024+94.5%
PLD3.0%14 Jun 2024+25.6%
APH3.0%13 Jul 2026+3.5%
ADI3.0%13 Oct 2026+1.1%
META2.9%15 Jan 2026−1.4%
AVGO2.8%10 Jul 2023+285.4%
NEE2.8%16 Apr 2026−5.6%
CARR2.7%16 Apr 2026−6.5%
TJX2.7%1 Jun 2023+92.1%
GOOGL2.6%15 Jan 2025+45.8%
CASY2.6%16 Apr 2026−9.4%
JPM0.2%10 Jul 2023+152.4%
SYK0.2%30 May 2023+16.6%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest30 May 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+14.3%+20.2%0.801.05−12.5%0.66−0.3% (−0.07)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+16.0%+21.8%0.971.16−12.5%0.64+0.6% (0.15)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+16.2%+14.2%1.270.84−6.1%0.42+7.2% (0.95)
DateCompanyAction
13 Oct 2026WSMBought
13 Oct 2026ADIBought
13 Jul 2026MCKBought
13 Jul 2026APHBought
14 May 2026MABought
16 Apr 2026WABBought
16 Apr 2026NEEBought
16 Apr 2026CASYBought
16 Apr 2026CARRBought
15 Jan 2026WMBought
15 Jan 2026METABought
15 Jan 2026DRIBought
17 Oct 2025WMTBought
17 Oct 2025AEPBought
17 Oct 2025ABTBought
15 Jul 2025XOMBought
16 Apr 2025AXPBought
15 Jan 2025VRSKBought
15 Jan 2025GOOGLBought
15 Jan 2025CTASBought
15 Jan 2025BRBought
18 Jul 2024ODFLBought
18 Jul 2024GSBought
14 Jun 2024PLDBought
14 Jun 2024NDAQBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
13 Oct 2026HDSold
13 Oct 2026FDXSold
13 Jul 2026SPGISold
13 Jul 2026ABTSold
16 Apr 2026PAYXSold
16 Apr 2026BRSold
16 Apr 2026AXPSold
16 Apr 2026AWKSold
15 Jan 2026VRSKSold
15 Jan 2026ESSSold
17 Oct 2025ZTSSold
17 Oct 2025ODFLSold
17 Oct 2025CLSold
15 Jul 2025MASold
16 Apr 2025NEESold
15 Jan 2025UNHSold
15 Jan 2025GDSold
15 Jan 2025CMCSASold
18 Jul 2024WMSold
14 Jun 2024TSNSold
14 Jun 2024TGTSold
14 Jun 2024PRUSold
14 Jun 2024PEPSold
14 Jun 2024PEGSold
14 Jun 2024MDTSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest