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Congress: members

David B. McKinley

Backtest from 1 May 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+12.8%
S&P 500 +13.6%
Last 12 months
+2.2%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.69
S&P 500 0.71
Biggest drop
−27.2%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $43.4k$40.2k
David B. McKinleyS&P 500 $10,000 in David B. McKinley from 1 May 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. David B. McKinley (Republican, WV) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

David B. McKinley's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+12.8%+13.6%
Total return+302%+334%
Last 12 months+2.2%+12.1%
Last 3 months+5.9%—
Last month+7.6%—
This year so far+2.0%—
Volatility a year16.1%16.6%
Sharpe ratio0.690.71
Biggest drop−27.2%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.891.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+0.5% (0.28)—
Share of weeks up58%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 384 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
TJX8.5%1 May 2015+404.4%
COST7.6%6 Oct 2017+645.3%
ORLY7.6%18 May 2020+231.0%
AVGO6.9%13 Oct 2021+633.6%
MSFT6.9%10 Jan 2019+437.0%
WM6.6%7 Jan 2020+128.0%
J5.7%18 May 2020+163.2%
MA4.9%13 Aug 2019+150.1%
TMO4.5%14 May 2019+161.8%
QCOM4.3%4 Sept 2020+61.0%
CACI4.1%2 Apr 2019+272.5%
HD4.0%6 Oct 2015+274.1%
UNH3.4%14 May 2019+91.5%
TSCO3.4%2 Apr 2019+103.2%
ACN3.0%7 Jan 2020+44.6%
LIN2.6%18 Jan 2022+73.5%
SBUX2.6%16 Apr 2020+63.8%
GOOGL2.6%16 Apr 2020+355.0%
AAPL2.5%16 Apr 2020+387.4%
INTU2.5%10 Jan 2019+82.6%
GPN1.5%18 May 2020−42.1%
EL1.3%13 Aug 2019−35.6%
GWW0.9%13 Oct 2022+175.3%
FISV0.8%14 May 2019−38.6%
TSLA0.6%13 Oct 2022+83.4%
AJG0.5%13 Oct 2022+62.7%
CNC0.3%13 Oct 2022−11.7%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest1 May 2015 to 2 Nov 2026+12.8%+13.6%0.690.71−27.2%0.89+0.5% (0.28)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+12.8%+13.9%0.620.66−27.2%0.90+0.2% (0.08)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+12.1%+21.8%0.601.16−12.6%0.74−4.2% (−0.94)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+3.0%+14.2%0.000.84−12.1%0.74−7.4% (−0.76)
DateCompanyAction
13 Oct 2022TSLABought
13 Oct 2022GWWBought
13 Oct 2022CNCBought
13 Oct 2022AJGBought
18 Jan 2022LINBought
13 Oct 2021AVGOBought
12 Aug 2021SYYBought
12 Aug 2021ELVBought
3 Jun 2021SWKBought
4 Sept 2020RPMBought
4 Sept 2020QCOMBought
4 Sept 2020NFLXBought
4 Sept 2020KMXBought
18 May 2020RTXBought
18 May 2020ORLYBought
18 May 2020JBought
18 May 2020GPNBought
16 Apr 2020SPGIBought
16 Apr 2020SBUXBought
16 Apr 2020GOOGLBought
16 Apr 2020AAPLBought
7 Jan 2020WMBought
7 Jan 2020ACNBought
13 Aug 2019MABought
13 Aug 2019ELBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
13 Oct 2022SWKSold
13 Oct 2022SPGISold
13 Oct 2022KMXSold
13 Oct 2022ABTSold
18 Jan 2022SYYSold
18 Jan 2022ELVSold
13 Oct 2021RPMSold
3 Jun 2021NFLXSold
7 Apr 2021ROPSold
7 Apr 2021AKAMSold
4 Sept 2020SYYSold
4 Sept 2020RTXSold
4 Sept 2020ELVSold
4 Sept 2020ECLSold
4 Sept 2020BDXSold
16 Apr 2020DRISold
7 Jan 2020VFCSold
16 Sept 2019NTAPSold
13 Aug 2019FDXSold
13 Aug 2019CCLSold
2 Apr 2019EATSold
2 Apr 2019CLXSold
2 Apr 2019AAPLSold
5 Feb 2019WMSold
5 Feb 2019SBUXSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest