undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Dean Phillips

Backtest from 19 Feb 2019 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+12.7%
S&P 500 +15.6%
Last 12 months
+23.0%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.59
S&P 500 0.73
Biggest drop
−32.4%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k 20192020202120222023202420252026 $30.5k$25.1k
Dean PhillipsS&P 500 $10,000 in Dean Phillips from 19 Feb 2019 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Dean Phillips (Democrat, MN) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Dean Phillips's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+12.7%+15.6%
Total return+151%+205%
Last 12 months+23.0%+12.1%
Last 3 months−0.3%—
Last month+1.1%—
This year so far+16.2%—
Volatility a year18.0%18.0%
Sharpe ratio0.590.73
Biggest drop−32.4%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.921.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−1.5% (−0.57)—
Share of weeks up57%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 702 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
MU12.5%14 Aug 2023+1147.7%
JPM8.3%3 Sept 2019+281.1%
ETN7.3%19 Feb 2019+443.4%
PGR5.9%3 Sept 2019+275.6%
BKNG5.8%12 Jul 2019+110.0%
MAS5.6%19 Feb 2019+149.6%
TJX5.6%3 Sept 2019+184.7%
BRK.B5.4%3 Sept 2019+176.5%
CB5.2%17 Apr 2019+201.6%
DGX5.2%22 Mar 2019+226.3%
UL4.0%17 Apr 2019+33.0%
SCHW3.4%3 Sept 2019+158.7%
OMC3.4%14 Jun 2019+36.1%
SLB3.4%3 Sept 2019+97.5%
DLTR2.9%19 Feb 2019+39.3%
UNH2.5%14 Jun 2019+83.7%
CMCSA2.5%3 Sept 2019−28.1%
DG1.8%3 Sept 2019−3.0%
NTRS1.6%17 Sept 2019+118.2%
PHG1.4%13 Mar 2020−11.6%
EMR1.4%3 Sept 2019+233.7%
ACGL1.4%16 Feb 2021+230.8%
PCAR1.3%19 Feb 2019+195.5%
HON0.8%3 Sept 2019+59.9%
PPG0.8%31 Jan 2022−11.3%
PEP0.7%19 Feb 2019+54.4%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest19 Feb 2019 to 2 Nov 2026+12.7%+15.6%0.590.73−32.4%0.92−1.5% (−0.57)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+18.1%+21.8%1.011.16−13.9%0.71+1.5% (0.31)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+22.2%+14.2%1.340.84−8.7%0.65+10.2% (1.03)
DateCompanyAction
14 Aug 2023MUBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
14 Aug 2023MPLXSold
14 Aug 2023EXPDSold
15 Aug 2022ZIONSold
15 Aug 2022YUMCSold
15 Aug 2022YUMSold
15 Aug 2022XRAYSold
15 Aug 2022WMTSold
15 Aug 2022WMSold
15 Aug 2022WFCSold
15 Aug 2022WDCSold
15 Aug 2022WATSold
15 Aug 2022VZSold
15 Aug 2022VRTXSold
15 Aug 2022VRSNSold
15 Aug 2022VFCSold
15 Aug 2022VSold
15 Aug 2022URISold
15 Aug 2022UPSSold
15 Aug 2022UNPSold
15 Aug 2022UHSSold
15 Aug 2022UAASold
15 Aug 2022TXNSold
15 Aug 2022TTSold
15 Aug 2022TSLASold
15 Aug 2022TRVSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest