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Congress: members

Lamar Smith

Backtest from 20 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+13.8%
S&P 500 +13.7%
Last 12 months
+1.4%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.68
S&P 500 0.73
Biggest drop
−33.3%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $46.1k$45.4k
Lamar SmithS&P 500 $10,000 in Lamar Smith from 20 Jan 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Lamar Smith (Independent, TX) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Lamar Smith's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+13.8%+13.7%
Total return+361%+354%
Last 12 months+1.4%+12.1%
Last 3 months+2.9%—
Last month+0.9%—
This year so far+6.1%—
Volatility a year18.3%16.5%
Sharpe ratio0.680.73
Biggest drop−33.3%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.021.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+0.2% (0.08)—
Share of weeks up57%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 340 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
MSFT25.4%10 Dec 2015+975.7%
BWXT7.8%13 Sept 2016+283.0%
WST5.8%21 Nov 2017+323.6%
ICE5.6%14 Apr 2015+335.5%
ANET5.0%14 Dec 2018+1092.0%
UNH4.7%11 Apr 2017+180.8%
CPRT4.3%8 Mar 2018+160.5%
ULTA3.0%15 Feb 2018+212.1%
CCJ2.7%9 Nov 2018+541.0%
VEEV2.6%11 Apr 2017+508.1%
MXL2.4%10 Feb 2017+131.6%
COST2.3%11 Jan 2019+448.7%
A2.3%9 May 2018+170.2%
AMZN2.3%19 Sept 2017+413.1%
KO2.2%9 Aug 2018+165.9%
LAUR1.8%13 Jul 2017+319.6%
LYV1.7%12 Dec 2017+313.7%
SYK1.7%9 May 2018+100.1%
MIDD1.6%21 Nov 2017+31.1%
LOPE1.5%13 Mar 2017+118.3%
LGND1.4%10 Jan 2018+238.5%
EWBC1.3%12 Jun 2017+181.6%
BURL1.3%10 Oct 2018+59.2%
ZTS1.1%16 Mar 2016+125.1%
ECPG1.1%11 Jul 2018+161.8%
HGV0.9%12 Jun 2018+3.0%
DLB0.9%10 Sept 2018+1.1%
ROG0.8%8 Mar 2018−3.6%
EL0.8%12 Dec 2017−5.2%
G0.7%11 Jan 2019+59.9%
HCSG0.6%12 Apr 2018−28.9%
TFX0.5%10 Jan 2018−42.2%
DPZ0.4%21 Nov 2017+101.6%
LXFR0.4%14 Dec 2018−0.2%
VRSK0.4%11 Apr 2017+165.6%
CSGP0.2%13 Oct 2017+12.0%
CARS0.1%11 Jul 2018−63.5%
MTN0.1%10 Feb 2017+18.0%
PRGO0.1%10 Dec 2015−85.8%
SABR0.1%11 Jul 2018−93.0%
YELP0.0%21 Nov 2017−58.2%
CDXS0.0%9 May 2018−90.7%
INGN0.0%14 Dec 2018−94.7%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest20 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026+13.8%+13.7%0.680.73−33.3%1.02+0.2% (0.08)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+12.7%+13.9%0.570.66−33.3%1.01−0.9% (−0.40)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+12.2%+21.8%0.531.16−17.9%0.94−7.0% (−1.49)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+6.2%+14.2%0.210.84−13.4%1.04−7.0% (−0.68)
DateCompanyAction
11 Jan 2019GBought
11 Jan 2019COSTBought
14 Dec 2018LXFRBought
14 Dec 2018INGNBought
14 Dec 2018ANETBought
9 Nov 2018CCJBought
10 Oct 2018BURLBought
10 Sept 2018DLBBought
9 Aug 2018KOBought
11 Jul 2018SABRBought
11 Jul 2018ECPGBought
11 Jul 2018CARSBought
12 Jun 2018HGVBought
12 Jun 2018GOOGLBought
9 May 2018SYKBought
9 May 2018CDXSBought
9 May 2018ABought
12 Apr 2018MNSTBought
12 Apr 2018HCSGBought
12 Apr 2018AKAMBought
8 Mar 2018ROGBought
8 Mar 2018CRLBought
8 Mar 2018CPRTBought
15 Feb 2018ULTABought
10 Jan 2018TFXBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
11 Jan 2019MNSTSold
14 Dec 2018WABSold
9 Nov 2018SHOOSold
10 Oct 2018CRLSold
10 Sept 2018GOOGLSold
10 Sept 2018AKAMSold
12 Apr 2018PGRSold
8 Mar 2018KMXSold
15 Feb 2018METASold
15 Feb 2018FASTSold
10 Jan 2018MNSTSold
10 Jan 2018MASold
21 Nov 2017SBUXSold
21 Nov 2017HLFSold
13 Jul 2017SFMSold
13 Jul 2017KRSold
13 Jul 2017GOOGLSold
13 Jul 2017EWSold
13 Jul 2017COSTSold
8 May 2017TSNSold
11 Apr 2017MDSold
11 Apr 2017BIIBSold
15 Nov 2016UNPSold
15 Nov 2016DGSold
12 Oct 2016FTVSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest