undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Congress: members

Carlos Curbelo

Backtest from 25 Aug 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+11.5%
S&P 500 +15.2%
Last 12 months
+7.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.53
S&P 500 0.79
Biggest drop
−43.8%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $48.6k$33.8k
Carlos CurbeloS&P 500 $10,000 in Carlos Curbelo from 25 Aug 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Carlos Curbelo (Independent, FL) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Carlos Curbelo's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+11.5%+15.2%
Total return+238%+386%
Last 12 months+7.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months−5.9%—
Last month−1.9%—
This year so far+8.9%—
Volatility a year20.1%16.8%
Sharpe ratio0.530.79
Biggest drop−43.8%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.011.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−2.8% (−0.85)—
Share of weeks up56%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 185 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
GE12.4%17 Jan 2018+303.6%
XOM7.7%25 Aug 2015+319.8%
ANET6.6%26 Sept 2018+895.6%
FLEX5.8%26 Sept 2018+774.9%
FTNT4.8%26 Sept 2018+622.5%
PH3.7%26 Sept 2018+456.7%
GOOGL3.2%26 Sept 2018+379.1%
AMP2.6%26 Sept 2018+295.2%
ORLY2.6%26 Sept 2018+292.5%
V2.1%3 Aug 2018+222.7%
FTI2.0%26 Sept 2018+202.3%
BLK2.0%26 Sept 2018+200.2%
YUM2.0%19 Sept 2016+197.6%
TMO1.9%26 Sept 2018+188.6%
TJX1.9%26 Sept 2018+181.1%
AMZN1.8%3 Aug 2018+172.9%
ICE1.7%26 Sept 2018+153.8%
GOGO1.7%15 Dec 2017−78.3%
UNP1.6%3 Aug 2018+145.8%
LOGI1.6%26 Sept 2018+136.4%
CFG1.6%26 Sept 2018+132.3%
LOW1.5%26 Sept 2018+121.6%
ECL1.4%26 Sept 2018+114.5%
NTRS1.4%26 Sept 2018+109.1%
HD1.3%26 Sept 2018+100.5%
SCI1.3%26 Sept 2018+100.1%
AWK1.3%26 Sept 2018+99.6%
LII1.2%26 Sept 2018+79.7%
CL1.2%26 Sept 2018+76.8%
ACN1.2%26 Sept 2018+74.2%
UNH1.1%26 Sept 2018+73.4%
HON1.1%26 Sept 2018+68.0%
AMT1.1%26 Sept 2018+63.3%
SSNC1.1%26 Sept 2018+59.6%
HII1.0%26 Sept 2018+44.5%
BMY1.0%3 Aug 2018+44.0%
JAZZ0.9%26 Sept 2018+31.5%
HSIC0.9%26 Sept 2018+30.8%
MDT0.8%26 Sept 2018+24.9%
AKAM0.8%26 Sept 2018+20.9%
SLB0.7%26 Sept 2018+8.4%
EPAM0.7%26 Sept 2018+5.5%
ADBE0.6%26 Sept 2018−5.4%
BUD0.6%3 Aug 2018−6.0%
CNC0.6%26 Sept 2018−6.1%
CMCSA0.6%26 Sept 2018−9.0%
MKC0.6%26 Sept 2018−11.5%
IFF0.6%26 Sept 2018−14.8%
BA0.5%7 Aug 2017−22.6%
NKE0.5%7 Aug 2017−24.5%
HCSG0.5%26 Sept 2018−28.8%
AAP0.2%26 Sept 2018−68.0%
OPK0.2%4 Oct 2017−75.6%
TRIP0.1%26 Sept 2018−79.5%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest25 Aug 2015 to 2 Nov 2026+11.5%+15.2%0.530.79−43.8%1.01−2.8% (−0.85)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+7.8%+13.9%0.330.66−43.8%1.00−5.0% (−1.43)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+15.2%+21.8%0.751.16−15.7%0.87−3.4% (−0.75)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+9.9%+14.2%0.530.84−8.4%0.77−1.5% (−0.20)
DateCompanyAction
26 Sept 2018UNHBought
26 Sept 2018TRIPBought
26 Sept 2018TMOBought
26 Sept 2018TJXBought
26 Sept 2018SSNCBought
26 Sept 2018SLBBought
26 Sept 2018SCIBought
26 Sept 2018PHBought
26 Sept 2018ORLYBought
26 Sept 2018NTRSBought
26 Sept 2018MKCBought
26 Sept 2018MDTBought
26 Sept 2018LOWBought
26 Sept 2018LOGIBought
26 Sept 2018LIIBought
26 Sept 2018JAZZBought
26 Sept 2018IFFBought
26 Sept 2018ICEBought
26 Sept 2018HSICBought
26 Sept 2018HONBought
26 Sept 2018HIIBought
26 Sept 2018HDBought
26 Sept 2018HCSGBought
26 Sept 2018GOOGLBought
26 Sept 2018FTNTBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
4 Oct 2018FSLRSold
26 Sept 2018ROKSold
26 Sept 2018MSFTSold
26 Sept 2018METASold
26 Sept 2018KOSold
26 Sept 2018DISSold
14 Aug 2018PBRSold
14 Aug 2018AAPLSold
3 Aug 2018GOOGLSold
6 Feb 2018VSold
6 Feb 2018METASold
6 Nov 2017ORLYSold
6 Nov 2017HDSold
6 Nov 2017CSXSold
6 Nov 2017CMCSASold
6 Nov 2017AMTSold
6 Nov 2017AMPSold
19 Sept 2017DISSold
22 Aug 2017TROWSold
7 Aug 2017NFLXSold
12 Dec 2016CSCOSold
16 Nov 2016ANSold
15 Jul 2016WYNNSold
17 Jun 2016NKESold
17 Jun 2016MDTSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest