undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Marie Newman

Backtest from 16 Feb 2021 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+5.8%
S&P 500 +13.7%
Last 12 months
+15.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.21
S&P 500 0.67
Biggest drop
−43.8%
S&P 500 −23.9%
$10.0k$20.0k 202120222023202420252026 $20.8k$13.8k
Marie NewmanS&P 500 $10,000 in Marie Newman from 16 Feb 2021 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Marie Newman (Democrat, IL) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Marie Newman's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+5.8%+13.7%
Total return+38%+108%
Last 12 months+15.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months+10.4%—
Last month+8.1%—
This year so far+14.7%—
Volatility a year19.4%15.6%
Sharpe ratio0.210.67
Biggest drop−43.8%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5001.091.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−7.5% (−1.90)—
Share of weeks up51%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 267 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
MSFT16.1%11 Jun 2021+109.4%
WMT14.0%5 Aug 2022+217.3%
TRV14.0%16 Apr 2021+184.7%
AAPL9.8%5 Aug 2022+107.8%
AMZN7.5%9 Dec 2021+42.9%
BBY6.0%10 Jan 2022+18.1%
SBUX5.0%9 Sept 2021−1.4%
R4.9%7 Oct 2021+290.3%
CRM4.6%9 Dec 2021−11.4%
DIS3.8%9 Dec 2021−23.3%
SPOT3.2%10 May 2021+162.2%
KO2.3%10 May 2021+105.2%
TSLA2.0%16 Apr 2021+64.9%
CCL1.9%12 Jul 2021+28.1%
MRNA1.5%16 Feb 2021+23.7%
LMND1.2%6 Aug 2021−49.1%
HIPO0.6%9 Dec 2021−52.4%
CHWY0.5%5 Aug 2022−49.9%
DOCU0.4%16 Feb 2021−69.2%
AKBA0.4%11 Aug 2021−73.0%
NVCR0.2%6 Aug 2021−91.2%
GPRO0.1%10 May 2021−89.8%
YTRA0.0%10 May 2021−56.6%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest16 Feb 2021 to 2 Nov 2026+5.8%+13.7%0.210.67−43.8%1.09−7.5% (−1.90)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+22.0%+21.8%1.081.16−20.0%0.95+1.3% (0.28)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+17.3%+14.2%0.950.84−11.5%0.75+5.4% (0.52)
DateCompanyAction
5 Aug 2022WMTBought
5 Aug 2022CHWYBought
5 Aug 2022AAPLBought
9 Feb 2022COINBought
10 Jan 2022BBYBought
10 Dec 2021RIVNBought
9 Dec 2021HIPOBought
9 Dec 2021DISBought
9 Dec 2021CRMBought
9 Dec 2021AMZNBought
7 Oct 2021ZMBought
7 Oct 2021RBought
9 Sept 2021SBUXBought
9 Sept 2021CNABought
9 Sept 2021AAPLBought
11 Aug 2021AKBABought
6 Aug 2021WBought
6 Aug 2021NVCRBought
6 Aug 2021LMNDBought
6 Aug 2021FBought
6 Aug 2021CRMBought
6 Aug 2021COSTBought
6 Aug 2021COINBought
12 Jul 2021CCLBought
11 Jun 2021MSFTBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
27 Dec 2022COINSold
5 Aug 2022UPSSold
5 Aug 2022SNAPSold
5 Aug 2022RIVNSold
5 Aug 2022METSold
5 Aug 2022CNASold
9 Feb 2022ZMSold
10 Dec 2021COINSold
9 Dec 2021AAPLSold
8 Nov 2021FSold
9 Sept 2021WSold
9 Sept 2021CRMSold
9 Sept 2021COSTSold
6 Aug 2021SBUXSold
6 Aug 2021NKESold
6 Aug 2021AAPLSold
12 Jul 2021WSold
11 Jun 2021TRUPSold
10 May 2021PTONSold
10 May 2021NFLXSold
22 Apr 2021CHWYSold
22 Apr 2021BASold
16 Apr 2021YETISold
16 Apr 2021WMTSold
16 Apr 2021UALSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest