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Congress: members

Dan Newhouse

Backtest from 30 May 2023 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+17.0%
S&P 500 +20.2%
Last 12 months
+20.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.89
S&P 500 1.05
Biggest drop
−17.2%
S&P 500 −16.9%
$10.0k$20.0k 2023202420252026 $18.8k$17.1k
Dan NewhouseS&P 500 $10,000 in Dan Newhouse from 30 May 2023 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Dan Newhouse (Republican, WA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Dan Newhouse's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+17.0%+20.2%
Total return+72%+88%
Last 12 months+20.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months+4.8%—
Last month+4.0%—
This year so far+16.7%—
Volatility a year13.4%14.0%
Sharpe ratio0.891.05
Biggest drop−17.2%−16.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.831.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−0.2% (−0.05)—
Share of weeks up62%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 191 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
ACN3.8%26 Apr 2024−10.3%
HON2.8%30 May 2023+24.6%
TGT2.2%18 Sept 2025+84.0%
COP2.2%18 Sept 2025+62.4%
ADI2.1%26 Apr 2024+115.4%
XOM2.1%18 Sept 2025+63.4%
MPC1.8%15 May 2025+171.1%
UNP1.8%30 May 2023+70.0%
OKE1.8%18 Sept 2025+32.9%
ROST1.7%18 Sept 2025+58.5%
AMD1.7%18 Sept 2025+201.4%
AAPL1.7%30 May 2023+92.9%
LIN1.7%30 May 2023+54.0%
EVRG1.6%15 May 2025+39.0%
V1.6%30 May 2023+96.9%
NXPI1.6%16 Jan 2026+10.9%
ELV1.6%26 Apr 2024−19.8%
AME1.6%18 Sept 2025+30.0%
ADP1.6%18 Sept 2025+6.1%
WTRG1.6%15 May 2025+21.1%
VZ1.6%30 May 2023+63.3%
RCL1.6%16 Jan 2026+17.9%
AMCR1.5%20 Jul 2026+14.5%
COST1.5%20 Jul 2026+11.4%
RTX1.5%26 Apr 2024+108.4%
BLK1.5%15 May 2025+22.6%
NI1.5%26 Apr 2024+74.4%
NEE1.5%30 May 2023+29.3%
VFC1.5%30 May 2023+20.8%
AMZN1.4%30 May 2023+104.5%
MSFT1.4%15 May 2025+15.3%
APH1.4%20 Jul 2026+7.3%
ULTA1.4%30 May 2023+54.5%
PLD1.4%18 Sept 2025+16.3%
DUK1.4%20 Jul 2026+3.0%
TXT1.4%16 Jan 2026−6.6%
PEP1.4%26 Apr 2024−12.2%
SNPS1.4%16 Jan 2026−8.7%
MCO1.4%30 May 2023+66.1%
FE1.3%20 Jul 2026−1.2%
PANW1.3%16 Jan 2026+91.7%
MU1.3%20 Jul 2026−2.6%
ANET1.3%20 Jul 2026−3.0%
SPGI1.3%18 Sept 2025−0.1%
FIS1.3%20 Jul 2026−4.4%
AVGO1.3%15 May 2025+41.6%
UBER1.2%20 Jul 2026−7.6%
LOW1.2%30 May 2023+13.6%
T1.2%30 May 2023+65.9%
TSLA1.2%30 May 2023+102.2%
SCHW1.2%16 Jan 2026−13.3%
MS1.2%20 Jul 2026−11.0%
CRM1.2%15 May 2025−20.0%
BR1.1%16 Jan 2026−14.4%
FTNT1.1%30 May 2023+88.8%
BX1.1%16 Jan 2026−23.7%
GIS1.1%18 Sept 2025−24.9%
TMUS1.1%16 Jan 2026−13.4%
FISV1.0%30 May 2023−54.1%
AMAT1.0%18 Sept 2025+101.8%
CSX1.0%26 Apr 2024+57.3%
DE1.0%30 May 2023+97.7%
NOW0.9%15 May 2025−47.8%
NFLX0.9%15 May 2025−46.7%
LLY0.9%15 May 2025+93.7%
NKE0.9%26 Apr 2024−55.4%
MGA0.8%15 May 2025+89.3%
NVDA0.7%15 May 2025+52.4%
LULU0.7%16 Jan 2026−46.7%
GOOGL0.6%30 May 2023+131.3%
EL0.1%30 May 2023−41.4%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest30 May 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+17.0%+20.2%0.891.05−17.2%0.83−0.2% (−0.05)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+18.1%+21.8%1.001.16−17.2%0.78+0.4% (0.10)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+22.8%+14.2%1.890.84−6.5%0.54+11.4% (1.83)
DateCompanyAction
20 Jul 2026UBERBought
20 Jul 2026MUBought
20 Jul 2026MSBought
20 Jul 2026FISBought
20 Jul 2026FEBought
20 Jul 2026DUKBought
20 Jul 2026COSTBought
20 Jul 2026APHBought
20 Jul 2026ANETBought
20 Jul 2026AMCRBought
16 Jan 2026TXTBought
16 Jan 2026TMUSBought
16 Jan 2026SNPSBought
16 Jan 2026SCHWBought
16 Jan 2026RCLBought
16 Jan 2026PANWBought
16 Jan 2026NXPIBought
16 Jan 2026LULUBought
16 Jan 2026BXBought
16 Jan 2026BRBought
18 Sept 2025XOMBought
18 Sept 2025UPSBought
18 Sept 2025TGTBought
18 Sept 2025SPGIBought
18 Sept 2025ROSTBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
20 Jul 2026UNHSold
20 Jul 2026TMOSold
20 Jul 2026INTUSold
20 Jul 2026HSYSold
20 Jul 2026FMCSold
20 Jul 2026ADBESold
18 May 2026UPSSold
18 May 2026DISSold
16 Jan 2026TFCSold
16 Jan 2026SBUXSold
16 Jan 2026DGSold
16 Jan 2026BROSold
19 May 2025PYPLSold
19 May 2025BKNGSold
15 May 2025ZTSSold
13 May 2024BLKSold
26 Apr 2024PYPLSold
26 Apr 2024PGSold
26 Apr 2024NVDASold
26 Apr 2024NOWSold
26 Apr 2024NFLXSold
26 Apr 2024MSFTSold
26 Apr 2024MPCSold
26 Apr 2024LLYSold
26 Apr 2024INTUSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest