undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Congress: members

J. French Hill

Backtest from 4 Feb 2016 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+8.2%
S&P 500 +15.5%
Last 12 months
+19.1%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.35
S&P 500 0.80
Biggest drop
−42.3%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201620182020202220242026 $46.9k$23.3k
J. French HillS&P 500 $10,000 in J. French Hill from 4 Feb 2016 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. J. French Hill (Republican, AR) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

J. French Hill's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+8.2%+15.5%
Total return+133%+369%
Last 12 months+19.1%+12.1%
Last 3 months+4.3%—
Last month+8.6%—
This year so far+12.5%—
Volatility a year22.6%16.6%
Sharpe ratio0.350.80
Biggest drop−42.3%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.881.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−3.8% (−0.73)—
Share of weeks up54%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 39 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
SFNC28.6%14 Aug 2026+0.4%
BRK.B8.7%4 Feb 2016+335.9%
APD6.4%14 Aug 2023+18.6%
LLY6.4%14 Aug 2023+166.7%
WMT5.6%14 Aug 2023+146.1%
MUSA3.1%14 Aug 2023+64.9%
NSC3.0%14 Aug 2023+71.6%
PG2.9%14 Aug 2023+14.8%
TPL2.8%14 Aug 2023+63.1%
XOM2.5%14 Aug 2023+79.8%
ABBV2.1%17 May 2016+633.4%
MKL2.0%17 May 2016+99.4%
MRK1.6%14 Aug 2023+50.6%
KO1.6%14 Aug 2023+73.1%
V1.4%14 Dec 2023+68.0%
MMM1.3%14 Aug 2023+128.4%
RF1.3%14 Aug 2026−8.4%
PEP1.1%14 Aug 2023−14.2%
AXP1.0%14 Aug 2023+105.5%
IBM1.0%14 Aug 2023+98.2%
TMUS0.9%14 Aug 2023+19.7%
LH0.7%17 May 2016+244.9%
GILD0.7%14 Aug 2023+137.3%
BIIB0.7%17 May 2016−5.7%
JNJ0.7%17 May 2016+215.2%
ABT0.6%17 May 2016+257.0%
KIM0.6%14 Aug 2023+44.8%
KMI0.6%14 Aug 2023+115.5%
CI0.6%14 Aug 2019+105.7%
D0.6%14 Aug 2023+61.8%
WTM0.6%25 Jul 2025+29.7%
SO0.5%14 Aug 2023+54.0%
L0.5%25 Jul 2025+21.9%
CEG0.5%14 Aug 2023+145.1%
VZ0.5%14 Aug 2023+66.8%
LHX0.5%14 Aug 2023+59.2%
FBIN0.5%14 Aug 2023−31.0%
T0.4%14 Aug 2026−12.6%
NVO0.4%17 May 2016+91.3%
HTGC0.4%14 Aug 2023+36.3%
BX0.4%14 Aug 2026−15.9%
INTC0.3%14 Aug 2026−40.4%
FIS0.3%14 Aug 2023−21.9%
GLW0.3%14 Aug 2023+310.6%
CSCO0.3%13 Jul 2016+366.0%
LMT0.3%14 Aug 2023+55.4%
EMR0.3%13 Jul 2016+290.4%
EXC0.2%14 Aug 2023+29.6%
KHC0.2%14 Aug 2026−0.9%
LUV0.2%17 May 2016+18.3%
O0.2%14 Aug 2023+18.9%
CCI0.2%16 May 2025−9.1%
WY0.2%14 Aug 2023−28.8%
JEF0.2%14 Aug 2019+269.1%
JBGS0.1%14 Aug 2023−9.4%
VTRS0.1%17 May 2022+98.8%
VOD0.1%14 Aug 2023+105.9%
MBC0.0%14 Aug 2023−41.2%
ONL0.0%14 Aug 2023−53.3%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest4 Feb 2016 to 2 Nov 2026+8.2%+15.5%0.350.80−42.3%0.88−3.8% (−0.73)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+5.2%+13.9%0.210.66−42.3%0.86−5.2% (−0.88)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+17.3%+21.8%0.901.16−14.7%0.52+3.9% (0.57)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+17.0%+14.2%1.180.84−6.1%0.00+12.2% (1.16)
DateCompanyAction
14 Aug 2026TBought
14 Aug 2026SFNCBought
14 Aug 2026RFBought
14 Aug 2026KHCBought
14 Aug 2026INTCBought
14 Aug 2026BXBought
25 Jul 2025WTMBought
25 Jul 2025LBought
16 May 2025VTSBought
16 May 2025SPBBought
16 May 2025SOLVBought
16 May 2025LAZBought
16 May 2025CCIBought
16 May 2024FTREBought
14 Dec 2023VBought
14 Aug 2023XOMBought
14 Aug 2023WYBought
14 Aug 2023WMTBought
14 Aug 2023VZBought
14 Aug 2023VODBought
14 Aug 2023TPLBought
14 Aug 2023TMUSBought
14 Aug 2023SOBought
14 Aug 2023SFLBought
14 Aug 2023SCHWBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
14 Aug 2026CVSSold
26 Jan 2026SOLVSold
26 Jan 2026SFLSold
26 Jan 2026PFESold
26 Jan 2026KDSold
25 Jul 2025WFCSold
25 Jul 2025VTSSold
25 Jul 2025TSold
25 Jul 2025SPBSold
25 Jul 2025SFNCSold
25 Jul 2025RFSold
25 Jul 2025LAZSold
25 Jul 2025INTCSold
25 Jul 2025FTRESold
25 Jul 2025BXSold
16 May 2024OGNSold
16 May 2024LSold
16 May 2024KHCSold
11 Jan 2024SCHWSold
11 Jan 2024PYPLSold
14 Dec 2023PMSold
14 Dec 2023MOSold
14 Aug 2023TSLASold
14 Aug 2023GOOGLSold
14 Aug 2023AAPLSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest