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Congress: members

Kevin Hern

Backtest from 14 May 2019 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+11.3%
S&P 500 +15.7%
Last 12 months
+15.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.51
S&P 500 0.73
Biggest drop
−32.6%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k 20192020202120222023202420252026 $29.8k$22.3k
Kevin HernS&P 500 $10,000 in Kevin Hern from 14 May 2019 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Kevin Hern (Republican, OK) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Kevin Hern's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+11.3%+15.7%
Total return+123%+198%
Last 12 months+15.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months−1.5%—
Last month+1.4%—
This year so far+11.9%—
Volatility a year18.5%18.2%
Sharpe ratio0.510.73
Biggest drop−32.6%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.901.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−2.5% (−0.81)—
Share of weeks up58%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 684 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
WMB19.9%17 Apr 2020+450.5%
RTX18.1%11 Apr 2023+117.7%
GOOGL5.2%14 May 2019+408.6%
JPM5.1%15 Nov 2019+216.9%
EMR5.0%16 Jun 2021+89.0%
ROK4.8%11 Apr 2023+67.8%
COST4.7%12 Feb 2024+46.2%
ORLY3.9%13 Aug 2024+21.7%
OKE3.1%17 Sept 2019+91.0%
AMZN3.0%13 Aug 2024+46.2%
PWR2.8%16 May 2023+267.2%
CDNS2.7%16 Jun 2021+158.8%
V2.4%13 Aug 2024+66.1%
AAPL2.1%14 May 2019+647.5%
MSFT1.9%13 Aug 2024+27.1%
XOM1.8%16 Oct 2020+578.1%
PH1.4%13 Aug 2024+65.6%
CVX1.2%14 May 2019+160.2%
ASML1.1%16 Sept 2022+242.6%
FCX1.1%16 Jun 2021+84.8%
TMO0.9%13 Aug 2024+14.4%
CMI0.9%14 May 2019+275.6%
BLK0.8%13 Aug 2024+43.3%
KO0.6%13 Aug 2024+49.1%
INTC0.6%5 Aug 2025+202.6%
MRK0.6%14 May 2019+153.5%
CSCO0.5%14 May 2019+144.2%
JNJ0.5%5 Aug 2025+62.7%
ICE0.4%13 Aug 2024+14.3%
AMP0.4%16 May 2023+77.6%
WMT0.4%14 May 2019+320.6%
COR0.4%5 Aug 2025+15.8%
PSX0.4%13 Aug 2024+121.8%
OGE0.2%14 May 2019+66.0%
STX0.2%14 May 2019+1635.8%
BOKF0.2%14 May 2019+94.0%
ETN0.2%14 May 2019+431.6%
CSX0.1%14 May 2019+118.6%
ADBE0.1%13 Aug 2024−52.6%
NKE0.1%17 Aug 2021−74.6%
VFC0.0%16 May 2023+3.0%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest14 May 2019 to 2 Nov 2026+11.3%+15.7%0.510.73−32.6%0.90−2.5% (−0.81)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+12.1%+21.8%0.621.16−15.6%0.62−2.3% (−0.44)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+16.2%+14.2%1.210.84−5.6%0.25+8.9% (0.98)
DateCompanyAction
26 Jun 2026UNHBought
5 Aug 2025VUZIBought
5 Aug 2025JNJBought
5 Aug 2025INTCBought
5 Aug 2025ELBought
5 Aug 2025CORBought
13 Aug 2024VODBought
13 Aug 2024VBought
13 Aug 2024TMOBought
13 Aug 2024TJXBought
13 Aug 2024PSXBought
13 Aug 2024PHBought
13 Aug 2024PGBought
13 Aug 2024ORLYBought
13 Aug 2024OGNBought
13 Aug 2024MSFTBought
13 Aug 2024MDTBought
13 Aug 2024MCDBought
13 Aug 2024LOWBought
13 Aug 2024KOBought
13 Aug 2024ICLRBought
13 Aug 2024ICEBought
13 Aug 2024HONBought
13 Aug 2024ECLBought
13 Aug 2024CMCSABought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
14 Oct 2026SBUXSold
14 Oct 2026NEESold
14 Oct 2026CBSold
28 Sept 2026VUZISold
28 Sept 2026UNHSold
28 Sept 2026TJXSold
28 Sept 2026STESold
28 Sept 2026PTCSold
28 Sept 2026PBASold
28 Sept 2026LMTSold
28 Sept 2026LINSold
28 Sept 2026ITWSold
28 Sept 2026HONSold
28 Sept 2026HDSold
28 Sept 2026FSold
28 Sept 2026DVNSold
28 Sept 2026CRSold
28 Sept 2026CNPSold
28 Sept 2026BSXSold
2 Sept 2026PGSold
2 Sept 2026OTISSold
2 Sept 2026LOWSold
2 Sept 2026KMBSold
2 Sept 2026HRLSold
2 Sept 2026DISSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest