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Congress: groups

Republicans in Congress

Backtest from 9 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+12.9%
S&P 500 +13.6%
Last 12 months
+23.6%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.66
S&P 500 0.72
Biggest drop
−33.4%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $45.0k$42.0k
Republicans in CongressS&P 500 $10,000 in Republicans in Congress from 9 Jan 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of every Republican House member in our records. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+12.9%+13.6%
Total return+320%+350%
Last 12 months+23.6%+12.1%
Last 3 months+5.1%—
Last month+7.9%—
This year so far+19.8%—
Volatility a year17.3%16.5%
Sharpe ratio0.660.72
Biggest drop−33.4%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.931.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+0.4% (0.18)—
Share of weeks up59%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 10,800 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
EXR28.6%23 Jun 2025+10.6%
XOM9.4%21 Aug 2015+299.9%
LLY4.4%28 Jun 2016+2101.0%
AAPL4.1%16 Oct 2015+1255.7%
MSFT2.2%16 Oct 2015+1159.8%
BTE2.1%15 Aug 2022+2.9%
SFNC2.0%14 Aug 2026+0.4%
WMB1.8%17 Apr 2020+450.5%
RTX1.7%18 May 2020+301.1%
ABCB1.6%16 Aug 2016+188.7%
BRK.B1.5%4 Feb 2016+335.9%
GOOGL1.5%15 May 2015+946.9%
WMT1.2%27 Dec 2016+542.4%
NVDA1.1%22 Feb 2017+7423.9%
JNJ1.0%16 Oct 2015+270.6%
JPM0.9%16 Oct 2015+630.3%
AMZN0.9%22 Dec 2015+650.4%
FDX0.9%10 Jan 2019+167.9%
CVX0.9%21 Aug 2015+381.7%
HD0.8%6 Oct 2015+274.1%
UNH0.7%6 Oct 2015+311.6%
COST0.7%6 Oct 2017+645.3%
V0.6%22 Jun 2015+567.2%
SF0.6%15 May 2025+7.3%
APD0.6%21 Aug 2018+133.1%
MCD0.5%16 May 2016+163.1%
ABBV0.5%16 Oct 2015+697.4%
PG0.5%9 Apr 2015+175.2%
EMR0.5%28 Jun 2016+333.5%
SPG0.5%22 Feb 2021+166.9%
BWIN0.5%11 Aug 2026+7.3%
ORLY0.5%16 Dec 2019+208.0%
ROK0.4%14 May 2019+209.5%
AMGN0.4%21 Aug 2018+201.4%
CAT0.4%22 Apr 2015+855.9%
META0.4%26 Jun 2015+600.6%
BMY0.4%30 Jul 2020+35.9%
MXC0.4%14 Aug 2019+172.4%
NSC0.4%28 Jun 2016+419.8%
MRK0.3%9 Aug 2016+240.9%
OKE0.3%28 Jun 2016+274.7%
DUK0.3%5 Feb 2016+151.5%
WPC0.3%16 May 2016+89.6%
CB0.3%11 Aug 2023+89.6%
TSLA0.3%16 May 2019+2571.9%
CTAS0.3%29 Apr 2016+1016.9%
PWR0.3%16 May 2023+267.2%
GE0.3%16 May 2016+147.2%
CDNS0.3%16 Jun 2021+158.8%
PEP0.3%16 Oct 2015+97.6%
KO0.2%13 Jun 2016+192.1%
AVGO0.2%1 Oct 2018+1501.0%
CL0.2%16 Oct 2015+89.1%
MA0.2%23 Dec 2015+613.2%
INTC0.2%17 May 2016+153.4%
MUSA0.2%14 Aug 2023+64.9%
LUV0.2%17 May 2016+18.3%
AMD0.2%7 Aug 2018+2333.1%
TPL0.2%14 Aug 2023+63.1%
TMO0.2%14 May 2019+161.8%
MKL0.2%17 May 2016+99.4%
MAR0.2%3 Nov 2016+553.8%
BLK0.2%2 Aug 2016+309.4%
UNP0.2%16 Oct 2015+322.6%
NUE0.2%16 Aug 2021+142.2%
PH0.2%14 May 2019+514.3%
TJX0.2%1 May 2015+404.4%
CSCO0.2%13 Jul 2016+366.0%
KMB0.2%14 May 2019+12.2%
FMAO0.2%28 Apr 2016+254.9%
WM0.2%14 Aug 2019+130.0%
VZ0.2%19 May 2016+59.5%
DIS0.2%1 May 2015+13.9%
T0.2%16 Oct 2015+79.8%
QCOM0.1%14 Aug 2019+173.3%
CHDN0.1%14 Aug 2019+73.3%
PLTR0.1%12 Feb 2025+51.9%
RHLD0.1%14 Aug 2025+102.0%
ASML0.1%16 Sept 2022+242.6%
D0.1%16 May 2019+25.0%
GILD0.1%21 Aug 2018+215.4%
AXP0.1%2 Mar 2017+367.8%
ORCL0.1%14 Jan 2020+142.1%
ABT0.1%5 Feb 2016+262.0%
J0.1%18 May 2020+163.2%
GLW0.1%15 Sept 2020+337.4%
PYPL0.1%16 Aug 2021−78.7%
BAC0.1%28 Jun 2016+394.6%
ACN0.1%16 Oct 2015+207.1%
CMI0.1%14 May 2019+275.6%
LMT0.1%7 Jul 2016+236.5%
IBM0.1%9 Aug 2016+151.4%
BSET0.1%14 Aug 2026+21.6%
BA0.1%24 Jan 2017+17.8%
ICE0.1%13 Dec 2017+173.3%
WFC0.1%16 Oct 2015+118.8%
MMM0.1%14 Aug 2023+128.4%
YUM0.1%14 Aug 2019+55.8%
C0.1%13 Aug 2024+123.3%
MU0.1%14 Jan 2026+152.9%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest9 Jan 2015 to 2 Nov 2026+12.9%+13.6%0.660.72−33.4%0.93+0.4% (0.18)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+12.6%+13.9%0.590.66−33.4%0.91−0.1% (−0.02)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+18.7%+21.8%1.101.16−14.5%0.63+3.2% (0.65)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+23.7%+14.2%1.850.84−6.5%0.27+15.0% (1.64)
DateCompanyAction
28 Oct 2026SJMBought
13 Oct 2026RIGBought
13 Oct 2026OLNBought
13 Oct 2026NGBought
13 Oct 2026IBRXBought
14 Sept 2026MTZBought
10 Sept 2026MRNABought
19 Aug 2026TOSTBought
14 Aug 2026ZBRABought
14 Aug 2026WRBYBought
14 Aug 2026WCCBought
14 Aug 2026TFCBought
14 Aug 2026TEAMBought
14 Aug 2026TDGBought
14 Aug 2026SHOPBought
14 Aug 2026SFNCBought
14 Aug 2026RMDBought
14 Aug 2026RGTIBought
14 Aug 2026PNRBought
14 Aug 2026PCTYBought
14 Aug 2026NUBought
14 Aug 2026MKCBought
14 Aug 2026MAABought
14 Aug 2026LIONBought
14 Aug 2026LAMRBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
28 Oct 2026SOLSSold
28 Oct 2026FMCSold
28 Sept 2026VUZISold
28 Sept 2026PTCSold
28 Sept 2026PBASold
28 Sept 2026CRSold
2 Sept 2026BUDSold
2 Sept 2026ALCSold
17 Aug 2026ELFSold
17 Aug 2026ABNBSold
14 Aug 2026WSTSold
14 Aug 2026WOLFSold
14 Aug 2026WDFCSold
14 Aug 2026UESold
14 Aug 2026UBSISold
14 Aug 2026TNLSold
14 Aug 2026SIGISold
14 Aug 2026SBSISold
14 Aug 2026RVTYSold
14 Aug 2026PRGSSold
14 Aug 2026PKSold
14 Aug 2026PATKSold
14 Aug 2026NWESold
14 Aug 2026NOVSold
14 Aug 2026NEMSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest