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Congress: members

Josh Gottheimer

Backtest from 14 Aug 2018 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+14.9%
S&P 500 +14.4%
Last 12 months
+3.0%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.58
S&P 500 0.67
Biggest drop
−33.0%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k 201820192020202120222023202420252026 $31.4k$30.2k
Josh GottheimerS&P 500 $10,000 in Josh Gottheimer from 14 Aug 2018 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Josh Gottheimer (Democrat, NJ) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Josh Gottheimer's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+14.9%+14.4%
Total return+214%+202%
Last 12 months+3.0%+12.1%
Last 3 months+9.9%—
Last month−0.3%—
This year so far+7.3%—
Volatility a year23.7%18.1%
Sharpe ratio0.580.67
Biggest drop−33.0%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.091.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+0.5% (0.10)—
Share of weeks up54%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 2,903 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
MSFT82.6%11 Mar 2021+128.3%
AAPL4.4%10 Jul 2020+263.2%
META1.6%21 Feb 2023+258.3%
AMZN0.8%15 Aug 2022+73.8%
LLY0.4%18 Apr 2022+388.6%
NVDA0.4%17 Mar 2020+3697.8%
GOOGL0.3%17 Sept 2019+365.2%
UAL0.3%13 Apr 2020+277.7%
CRCL0.3%11 Aug 2026+1.3%
TXN0.3%14 Dec 2018+305.9%
CSCO0.2%12 Aug 2025+47.3%
JNJ0.2%3 Oct 2018+141.4%
CVX0.2%11 Jun 2020+234.8%
GLW0.2%12 Jun 2025+146.6%
FAST0.2%14 Dec 2018+378.0%
TSM0.2%14 May 2020+761.8%
WPP0.2%15 Aug 2022−31.2%
SBUX0.2%17 May 2022+56.3%
NSC0.2%11 Aug 2026+3.7%
D0.2%13 Nov 2023+75.6%
MA0.2%21 Feb 2023+89.3%
CINF0.2%16 Aug 2021+70.7%
BLK0.1%16 Aug 2021+43.2%
PGR0.1%16 Jul 2021+170.9%
PAYX0.1%16 Aug 2021+15.5%
NOC0.1%16 Oct 2023+19.3%
AVGO0.1%12 Jun 2023+297.6%
LOW0.1%17 Sept 2019+121.3%
TSLA0.1%11 Nov 2019+1667.8%
SCHW0.1%14 Oct 2019+160.3%
AMD0.1%20 May 2026+6.3%
NFLX0.1%21 Feb 2023+86.0%
APD0.1%17 Jun 2019+75.1%
BRK.B0.1%17 Sept 2019+164.4%
XOM0.1%17 Mar 2026+15.4%
MNST0.1%17 Mar 2026+24.3%
NICE0.1%18 Nov 2025+8.5%
HALO0.1%6 Nov 2020+239.9%
PANW0.1%4 Jun 2026+28.8%
SLAB0.1%14 Aug 2018+133.1%
DCO0.1%13 Nov 2023+224.5%
NTRA0.1%6 Dec 2024+122.9%
CHRD0.1%7 Nov 2024+22.8%
VIAV0.1%11 Jun 2020+126.5%
ATRC0.1%16 Aug 2024+150.6%
PWR0.1%11 Dec 2023+208.6%
SHEL0.1%14 Aug 2023+92.3%
RHP0.1%7 Jan 2020+96.3%
ASML0.1%12 Jun 2025+98.4%
AVNT0.1%15 Aug 2022+0.8%
KO0.1%11 Feb 2025+48.9%
UNH0.1%17 Mar 2026+39.8%
CATY0.1%12 Aug 2025+43.9%
GWW0.1%13 Nov 2023+78.3%
MTDR0.1%1 Feb 2019+210.2%
LRCX0.1%17 Mar 2020+977.8%
NTES0.1%18 Nov 2025−14.7%
SNOW0.1%11 Aug 2026−13.0%
MTSI0.0%1 Feb 2019+1141.6%
MRK0.0%17 Mar 2026+30.0%
NWE0.0%16 Aug 2021+59.6%
MFC0.0%25 Jul 2022+204.0%
V0.0%11 Feb 2025+22.8%
ANET0.0%13 Nov 2023+212.3%
NOVT0.0%21 May 2019+79.1%
LIN0.0%14 Aug 2024+19.2%
MCK0.0%10 Dec 2020+484.4%
CNS0.0%16 Aug 2021+1.9%
ALGM0.0%7 Nov 2024+45.1%
UMBF0.0%8 Jan 2024+75.6%
COST0.0%14 Aug 2024+22.0%
APH0.0%14 Oct 2019+609.2%
INDB0.0%15 Aug 2022+13.3%
CB0.0%17 Jul 2025+35.1%
IDA0.0%16 Aug 2021+57.9%
ITT0.0%25 Jul 2022+202.6%
VCYT0.0%7 Jan 2020+88.1%
GBCI0.0%16 Aug 2021+10.3%
GILD0.0%27 Feb 2026+16.7%
MGY0.0%22 Apr 2021+160.6%
ETN0.0%18 Sept 2023+74.4%
MEDP0.0%6 Nov 2020+446.4%
ABCB0.0%14 Aug 2024+54.7%
WMT0.0%15 Jan 2025+41.5%
ICUI0.0%21 Mar 2022−33.9%
TXRH0.0%16 Aug 2021+129.7%
BCPC0.0%14 Aug 2024+7.0%
HQY0.0%13 Apr 2020+120.8%
INTA0.0%20 May 2026+114.8%
AGIO0.0%16 Feb 2024+15.7%
GTES0.0%7 Nov 2024+12.9%
RTX0.0%15 May 2025+52.6%
SBCF0.0%10 Dec 2019+32.8%
FSS0.0%17 Mar 2026+10.5%
RSG0.0%15 Sept 2026+10.0%
FWRG0.0%20 May 2026+18.1%
COCO0.0%8 Jan 2024+134.5%
STRL0.0%10 Jul 2024+195.6%
CRWD0.0%11 Aug 2026+9.0%
JPM0.0%15 Aug 2022+208.6%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest14 Aug 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+14.9%+14.4%0.580.67−33.0%1.09+0.5% (0.10)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+15.3%+21.8%0.531.16−26.9%1.13−5.8% (−0.59)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+6.8%+14.2%0.230.84−25.1%1.49−8.0% (−0.33)
DateCompanyAction
15 Sept 2026RSGBought
15 Sept 2026QSRBought
15 Sept 2026AMATBought
11 Aug 2026SNOWBought
11 Aug 2026SKYBought
11 Aug 2026SAILBought
11 Aug 2026NSCBought
11 Aug 2026LOPEBought
11 Aug 2026EPACBought
11 Aug 2026CRWDBought
11 Aug 2026CRCLBought
11 Aug 2026AEISBought
4 Jun 2026TWLOBought
4 Jun 2026SNDKBought
4 Jun 2026PANWBought
4 Jun 2026MUBought
4 Jun 2026LITEBought
4 Jun 2026ADIBought
20 May 2026INTABought
20 May 2026FWRGBought
20 May 2026FCXBought
20 May 2026CBZBought
20 May 2026AMDBought
9 Apr 2026NOWBought
9 Apr 2026FNBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
8 Oct 2026AMATSold
11 Aug 2026XYZSold
11 Aug 2026UPSSold
11 Aug 2026TMOSold
11 Aug 2026IBMSold
11 Aug 2026FNSold
11 Aug 2026CSWSold
11 Aug 2026COTYSold
11 Aug 2026COPSold
11 Aug 2026CCISold
8 Jul 2026BKNGSold
8 Jul 2026BABASold
8 Jul 2026ADCSold
4 Jun 2026ABBVSold
20 May 2026VLYSold
20 May 2026TSCOSold
20 May 2026TSold
20 May 2026SYFSold
20 May 2026PFGCSold
20 May 2026NOWSold
20 May 2026MLMSold
20 May 2026MKTXSold
20 May 2026GSSold
20 May 2026FSold
20 May 2026DRISold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest